L’École des cotes

Sevilla v Real Madrid

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-17 17:00 UTC

Score final : Sevilla 0–1 Real Madrid

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

59 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Sevilla (Local)

Prévision 29.43%3.40cote équitable
EV +1.52%
Avantage +0.441%
Kelly +0.621%
Croissance +0.009%

avec la cote maximale 3.45

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
27.70%29.46%29.40%30.70%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.003.223.203.4533.33%31.05%31.25%28.99%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Real Madrid (Visiteur)

Prévision 43.68%2.29cote équitable
EV -0.850%
Avantage -0.374%
Kelly -0.669%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.27

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
42.40%43.63%43.70%45.05%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.002.152.152.2750.00%46.45%46.51%44.05%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 26.90%3.72cote équitable
EV -2.64%
Avantage -0.729%
Kelly -1.01%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.62

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
26.28%26.91%26.90%28.17%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.103.453.503.6232.26%29.00%28.57%27.62%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (59 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
Unibet (NL)3.45I 28.99%NM 28.02%EV +1.52%E +0.441%K +0.621%G +0.009%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.35%EV -4.78%E -2.19%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.62%EV -5.87%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-17 07:40
Unibet (SE)3.45I 28.99%NM 28.02%EV +1.52%E +0.441%K +0.621%G +0.009%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.35%EV -4.78%E -2.19%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.62%EV -5.87%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-17 07:36
Svenska Spel3.45I 28.99%NM 28.02%EV +1.52%E +0.441%K +0.621%G +0.009%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.35%EV -4.78%E -2.19%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.62%EV -5.87%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-17 07:40
ATG (SE)3.45I 28.99%NM 28.02%EV +1.52%E +0.441%K +0.621%G +0.009%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.35%EV -4.78%E -2.19%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.62%EV -5.87%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-17 07:40
1xBet3.40I 29.41%NM 29.01%EV +0.050%E +0.015%K +0.021%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.45%EV -0.850%E -0.374%K -0.669%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 27.55%EV -3.72%E -1.04%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.4%2026-05-17 08:20
Coolbet3.40I 29.41%NM 28.55%EV +0.050%E +0.015%K +0.021%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.72%EV -3.03%E -1.37%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.73%EV -5.87%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-17 00:15
Marathon Bet3.36I 29.76%NM 28.83%EV -1.13%E -0.335%K -0.478%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.64%EV -3.03%E -1.37%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.52%EV -5.33%E -1.51%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-17 10:40
BetOnline.ag3.36I 29.76%NM 28.79%EV -1.13%E -0.335%K -0.478%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.97%EV -3.91%E -1.78%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.25%EV -4.52%E -1.27%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-16 15:59
LowVig.ag3.36I 29.76%NM 28.79%EV -1.13%E -0.335%K -0.478%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.97%EV -3.91%E -1.78%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.25%EV -4.52%E -1.27%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-16 15:59
Grosvenor3.35I 29.85%NM 28.22%EV -1.42%E -0.424%K -0.605%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.97%EV -6.09%E -2.83%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -8.56%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-17 07:40
Casumo3.35I 29.85%NM 28.22%EV -1.42%E -0.424%K -0.605%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.97%EV -6.09%E -2.83%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -8.56%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-17 07:40
betPARX3.35I 29.85%NM 28.22%EV -1.42%E -0.424%K -0.605%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.97%EV -6.09%E -2.83%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -8.56%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-17 07:36
Bally Bet3.35I 29.85%NM 28.22%EV -1.42%E -0.424%K -0.605%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.97%EV -6.09%E -2.83%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -8.56%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-17 07:36
Pinnacle3.31I 30.21%NM 29.37%EV -2.60%E -0.785%K -1.12%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.78%EV -3.03%E -1.37%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.85%EV -2.64%E -0.729%K -1.01%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-17 10:40
SportsBet3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -2.89%E -0.877%K -1.26%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -6.09%E -2.83%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -5.87%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-17 10:39
FanDuel3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -2.89%E -0.877%K -1.26%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -6.09%E -2.83%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -5.87%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-17 10:40
Tipico (DE)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -2.89%E -0.877%K -1.26%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -8.28%E -3.94%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -3.18%E -0.883%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-17 08:10
Unibet (FR)3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -2.89%E -0.877%K -1.26%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -10.46%E -5.10%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -11.25%E -3.41%K -4.89%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-17 06:30
Betclic (FR)3.28I 30.49%NM 29.23%EV -3.48%E -1.06%K -1.53%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.98%EV -4.78%E -2.19%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.78%EV -3.72%E -1.04%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-17 06:29
Codere (IT)3.25I 30.77%NM 29.42%EV -4.36%E -1.34%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.65%EV -4.34%E -1.98%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.93%EV -4.52%E -1.27%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-17 06:30
DraftKings3.25I 30.77%NM 29.36%EV -4.36%E -1.34%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.37%EV -3.91%E -1.78%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.26%EV -5.87%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-15 21:15
Sky Bet3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -4.36%E -1.34%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -8.28%E -3.94%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -5.87%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-17 10:39
Paddy Power3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -4.36%E -1.34%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.17%EV -8.28%E -3.94%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -8.56%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-17 10:40
Unibet3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -4.36%E -1.34%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -8.28%E -3.94%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -11.25%E -3.41%K -4.89%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-17 07:36
LeoVegas (SE)3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -4.36%E -1.34%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -8.28%E -3.94%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -11.25%E -3.41%K -4.89%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-17 07:36
TABtouch3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -4.36%E -1.34%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -8.28%E -3.94%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -11.25%E -3.41%K -4.89%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-17 07:40
BetUS3.22I 31.06%NM 29.50%EV -5.25%E -1.63%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.40%EV -2.16%E -0.964%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.10%EV -9.09%E -2.69%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-15 14:50
Everygame3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -5.84%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.18%EV -3.91%E -1.78%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -5.87%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-17 05:34
Betsson3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -5.84%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.57%EV -4.78%E -2.19%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.75%EV -4.52%E -1.27%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-17 10:40
NordicBet3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -5.84%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.57%EV -4.78%E -2.19%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.75%EV -4.52%E -1.27%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-17 10:40
Bet Victor3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -5.84%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.07%EV -6.09%E -2.83%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -3.18%E -0.883%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-17 10:39
Bovada3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -5.84%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.51%EV -5.22%E -2.40%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.98%EV -5.87%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 10:40
Fanatics3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -5.84%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -6.09%E -2.83%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.87%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 18:20
William Hill3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -5.84%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -6.09%E -2.83%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.56%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 22:30
BetRivers3.20I 31.25%NM 28.38%EV -5.84%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.67%EV -9.15%E -4.40%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.95%EV -12.59%E -3.87%K -5.60%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-17 07:40
PMU (FR)3.20I 31.25%NM 28.32%EV -5.84%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 43.79%EV -9.59%E -4.63%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.89%EV -12.59%E -3.87%K -5.60%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-17 07:36
Virgin Bet3.20I 31.25%NM 28.26%EV -5.84%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.91%EV -10.02%E -4.87%K -9.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.83%EV -12.59%E -3.87%K -5.60%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-17 10:40
LiveScore Bet3.20I 31.25%NM 28.26%EV -5.84%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.91%EV -10.02%E -4.87%K -9.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.83%EV -12.59%E -3.87%K -5.60%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-17 10:39
NetBet (FR)3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -7.31%E -2.32%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.78%EV -8.28%E -3.94%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -8.56%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-17 06:50
LeoVegas3.15I 31.75%NM 28.40%EV -7.31%E -2.32%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.64%EV -10.46%E -5.10%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -13.94%E -4.35%K -6.33%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-17 07:36
Unibet (UK)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -8.78%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -3.91%E -1.78%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -3.18%E -0.883%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-17 10:40
theScore Bet3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -8.78%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -3.91%E -1.78%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -3.18%E -0.883%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-17 10:40
betfred_uk3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -8.78%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -3.91%E -1.78%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -5.87%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 09:40
Betway3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -8.78%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -3.91%E -1.78%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -5.87%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 04:09
Coral3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -8.78%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -3.91%E -1.78%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -5.87%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 07:45
Ladbrokes (UK)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -8.78%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -3.91%E -1.78%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -5.87%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 07:45
BetMGM3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -8.78%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -3.91%E -1.78%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -5.87%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 07:45
Neds3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -8.78%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.60%EV -3.91%E -1.78%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -7.21%E -2.09%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-17 07:45
Ladbrokes (AU)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -8.78%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.60%EV -3.91%E -1.78%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -7.21%E -2.09%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-17 07:45
Winamax (DE)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -8.78%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.49%EV -6.09%E -2.83%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.34%EV -4.52%E -1.27%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-17 06:30
Mr Green (SE)3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -8.78%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -6.09%E -2.83%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -8.56%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-16 22:25
PlayUp3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -8.78%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -6.09%E -2.83%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -8.56%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-17 10:39
TAB3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -8.78%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -6.09%E -2.83%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -8.56%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-17 10:40
Fliff3.10I 32.26%NM 29.09%EV -8.78%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.99%EV -10.46%E -5.10%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.92%EV -9.90%E -2.96%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-17 10:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)3.10I 32.26%NM 28.17%EV -8.78%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.66%EV -12.64%E -6.32%K -12.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.17%EV -16.62%E -5.36%K -7.92%G +0.000%14.5%2026-05-17 10:40
Betr (AU)3.05I 32.79%NM 30.70%EV -10.25%E -3.36%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -3.91%E -1.78%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.75%EV -5.87%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-15 20:30
Bet Right3.05I 32.79%NM 30.39%EV -10.25%E -3.36%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.12%EV -6.09%E -2.83%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -5.87%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-17 10:40
Winamax (FR)3.05I 32.79%NM 29.97%EV -10.25%E -3.36%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.53%EV -8.28%E -3.94%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.50%EV -7.21%E -2.09%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-17 06:30
BoyleSports3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -11.72%E -3.91%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -8.28%E -3.94%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -8.56%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-17 06:10
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Smarkets3.50I 28.57%NM 28.50%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.54%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.96%0.2%2026-05-17 10:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.45I 28.99%NM 28.80%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.35%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85%0.7%2026-05-17 10:40
Matchbook3.45I 28.99%NM 28.80%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.35%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85%0.7%2026-05-17 10:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.40I 29.41%NM 29.10%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.17%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.74%1.1%2026-05-17 10:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.40I 29.41%NM 29.10%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.17%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.74%1.1%2026-05-17 10:40
Kalshi3.33I 30.03%NM 29.12%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.68%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.20%3.1%2026-05-17 10:40