La escuela de los momios

Sevilla v Real Madrid

Inicio: 2026-05-17 17:00 UTC

Final: Sevilla 0–1 Real Madrid

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Sevilla (Local)

Predicción 29.43%3.40momio equitativo
EV +1.52%
Ventaja +0.441%
Kelly +0.621%
Crecimiento +0.009%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.45

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.70%29.46%29.40%30.70%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.223.203.4533.33%31.05%31.25%28.99%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Real Madrid (Visitante)

Predicción 43.68%2.29momio equitativo
EV -0.850%
Ventaja -0.374%
Kelly -0.669%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.27

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.40%43.63%43.70%45.05%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.002.152.152.2750.00%46.45%46.51%44.05%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 26.90%3.72momio equitativo
EV -2.64%
Ventaja -0.729%
Kelly -1.01%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.62

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.28%26.91%26.90%28.17%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.453.503.6232.26%29.00%28.57%27.62%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (NL)3.45I 28.99%NM 28.02%EV +1.52%E +0.441%K +0.621%G +0.009%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.35%EV -4.78%E -2.19%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.62%EV -5.87%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-17 07:40
Unibet (SE)3.45I 28.99%NM 28.02%EV +1.52%E +0.441%K +0.621%G +0.009%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.35%EV -4.78%E -2.19%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.62%EV -5.87%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-17 07:36
Svenska Spel3.45I 28.99%NM 28.02%EV +1.52%E +0.441%K +0.621%G +0.009%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.35%EV -4.78%E -2.19%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.62%EV -5.87%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-17 07:40
ATG (SE)3.45I 28.99%NM 28.02%EV +1.52%E +0.441%K +0.621%G +0.009%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.35%EV -4.78%E -2.19%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.62%EV -5.87%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-17 07:40
1xBet3.40I 29.41%NM 29.01%EV +0.050%E +0.015%K +0.021%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.45%EV -0.850%E -0.374%K -0.669%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 27.55%EV -3.72%E -1.04%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.4%2026-05-17 08:20
Coolbet3.40I 29.41%NM 28.55%EV +0.050%E +0.015%K +0.021%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.72%EV -3.03%E -1.37%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.73%EV -5.87%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-17 00:15
Marathon Bet3.36I 29.76%NM 28.83%EV -1.13%E -0.335%K -0.478%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.64%EV -3.03%E -1.37%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.52%EV -5.33%E -1.51%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-17 10:40
BetOnline.ag3.36I 29.76%NM 28.79%EV -1.13%E -0.335%K -0.478%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.97%EV -3.91%E -1.78%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.25%EV -4.52%E -1.27%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-16 15:59
LowVig.ag3.36I 29.76%NM 28.79%EV -1.13%E -0.335%K -0.478%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.97%EV -3.91%E -1.78%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.25%EV -4.52%E -1.27%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-16 15:59
Grosvenor3.35I 29.85%NM 28.22%EV -1.42%E -0.424%K -0.605%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.97%EV -6.09%E -2.83%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -8.56%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-17 07:40
Casumo3.35I 29.85%NM 28.22%EV -1.42%E -0.424%K -0.605%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.97%EV -6.09%E -2.83%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -8.56%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-17 07:40
betPARX3.35I 29.85%NM 28.22%EV -1.42%E -0.424%K -0.605%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.97%EV -6.09%E -2.83%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -8.56%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-17 07:36
Bally Bet3.35I 29.85%NM 28.22%EV -1.42%E -0.424%K -0.605%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.97%EV -6.09%E -2.83%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -8.56%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-17 07:36
Pinnacle3.31I 30.21%NM 29.37%EV -2.60%E -0.785%K -1.12%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.78%EV -3.03%E -1.37%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.85%EV -2.64%E -0.729%K -1.01%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-17 10:40
SportsBet3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -2.89%E -0.877%K -1.26%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -6.09%E -2.83%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -5.87%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-17 10:39
FanDuel3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -2.89%E -0.877%K -1.26%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -6.09%E -2.83%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -5.87%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-17 10:40
Tipico (DE)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -2.89%E -0.877%K -1.26%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -8.28%E -3.94%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -3.18%E -0.883%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-17 08:10
Unibet (FR)3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -2.89%E -0.877%K -1.26%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -10.46%E -5.10%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -11.25%E -3.41%K -4.89%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-17 06:30
Betclic (FR)3.28I 30.49%NM 29.23%EV -3.48%E -1.06%K -1.53%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.98%EV -4.78%E -2.19%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.78%EV -3.72%E -1.04%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-17 06:29
Codere (IT)3.25I 30.77%NM 29.42%EV -4.36%E -1.34%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.65%EV -4.34%E -1.98%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.93%EV -4.52%E -1.27%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-17 06:30
DraftKings3.25I 30.77%NM 29.36%EV -4.36%E -1.34%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.37%EV -3.91%E -1.78%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.26%EV -5.87%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-15 21:15
Sky Bet3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -4.36%E -1.34%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -8.28%E -3.94%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -5.87%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-17 10:39
Paddy Power3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -4.36%E -1.34%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.17%EV -8.28%E -3.94%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -8.56%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-17 10:40
Unibet3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -4.36%E -1.34%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -8.28%E -3.94%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -11.25%E -3.41%K -4.89%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-17 07:36
LeoVegas (SE)3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -4.36%E -1.34%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -8.28%E -3.94%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -11.25%E -3.41%K -4.89%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-17 07:36
TABtouch3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -4.36%E -1.34%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -8.28%E -3.94%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -11.25%E -3.41%K -4.89%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-17 07:40
BetUS3.22I 31.06%NM 29.50%EV -5.25%E -1.63%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.40%EV -2.16%E -0.964%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.10%EV -9.09%E -2.69%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-15 14:50
Everygame3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -5.84%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.18%EV -3.91%E -1.78%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -5.87%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-17 05:34
Betsson3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -5.84%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.57%EV -4.78%E -2.19%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.75%EV -4.52%E -1.27%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-17 10:40
NordicBet3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -5.84%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.57%EV -4.78%E -2.19%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.75%EV -4.52%E -1.27%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-17 10:40
Bet Victor3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -5.84%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.07%EV -6.09%E -2.83%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -3.18%E -0.883%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-17 10:39
Bovada3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -5.84%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.51%EV -5.22%E -2.40%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.98%EV -5.87%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 10:40
Fanatics3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -5.84%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -6.09%E -2.83%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.87%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 18:20
William Hill3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -5.84%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -6.09%E -2.83%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.56%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 22:30
BetRivers3.20I 31.25%NM 28.38%EV -5.84%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.67%EV -9.15%E -4.40%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.95%EV -12.59%E -3.87%K -5.60%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-17 07:40
PMU (FR)3.20I 31.25%NM 28.32%EV -5.84%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 43.79%EV -9.59%E -4.63%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.89%EV -12.59%E -3.87%K -5.60%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-17 07:36
Virgin Bet3.20I 31.25%NM 28.26%EV -5.84%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.91%EV -10.02%E -4.87%K -9.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.83%EV -12.59%E -3.87%K -5.60%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-17 10:40
LiveScore Bet3.20I 31.25%NM 28.26%EV -5.84%E -1.82%K -2.65%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 43.91%EV -10.02%E -4.87%K -9.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.83%EV -12.59%E -3.87%K -5.60%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-17 10:39
NetBet (FR)3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -7.31%E -2.32%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.78%EV -8.28%E -3.94%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -8.56%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-17 06:50
LeoVegas3.15I 31.75%NM 28.40%EV -7.31%E -2.32%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.64%EV -10.46%E -5.10%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -13.94%E -4.35%K -6.33%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-17 07:36
Unibet (UK)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -8.78%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -3.91%E -1.78%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -3.18%E -0.883%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-17 10:40
theScore Bet3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -8.78%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -3.91%E -1.78%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -3.18%E -0.883%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-17 10:40
betfred_uk3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -8.78%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -3.91%E -1.78%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -5.87%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 09:40
Betway3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -8.78%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -3.91%E -1.78%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -5.87%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 04:09
Coral3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -8.78%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -3.91%E -1.78%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -5.87%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 07:45
Ladbrokes (UK)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -8.78%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -3.91%E -1.78%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -5.87%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 07:45
BetMGM3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -8.78%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -3.91%E -1.78%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -5.87%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 07:45
Neds3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -8.78%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.60%EV -3.91%E -1.78%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -7.21%E -2.09%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-17 07:45
Ladbrokes (AU)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -8.78%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.60%EV -3.91%E -1.78%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -7.21%E -2.09%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-17 07:45
Winamax (DE)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -8.78%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.49%EV -6.09%E -2.83%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.34%EV -4.52%E -1.27%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-17 06:30
Mr Green (SE)3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -8.78%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -6.09%E -2.83%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -8.56%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-16 22:25
PlayUp3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -8.78%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -6.09%E -2.83%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -8.56%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-17 10:39
TAB3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -8.78%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -6.09%E -2.83%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -8.56%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-17 10:40
Fliff3.10I 32.26%NM 29.09%EV -8.78%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.99%EV -10.46%E -5.10%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.92%EV -9.90%E -2.96%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-17 10:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)3.10I 32.26%NM 28.17%EV -8.78%E -2.83%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.66%EV -12.64%E -6.32%K -12.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.17%EV -16.62%E -5.36%K -7.92%G +0.000%14.5%2026-05-17 10:40
Betr (AU)3.05I 32.79%NM 30.70%EV -10.25%E -3.36%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -3.91%E -1.78%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.75%EV -5.87%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-15 20:30
Bet Right3.05I 32.79%NM 30.39%EV -10.25%E -3.36%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.12%EV -6.09%E -2.83%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -5.87%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-17 10:40
Winamax (FR)3.05I 32.79%NM 29.97%EV -10.25%E -3.36%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.53%EV -8.28%E -3.94%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.50%EV -7.21%E -2.09%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-17 06:30
BoyleSports3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -11.72%E -3.91%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -8.28%E -3.94%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -8.56%E -2.52%K -3.57%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-17 06:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets3.50I 28.57%NM 28.50%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.54%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.96%0.2%2026-05-17 10:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.45I 28.99%NM 28.80%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.35%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85%0.7%2026-05-17 10:40
Matchbook3.45I 28.99%NM 28.80%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.35%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85%0.7%2026-05-17 10:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.40I 29.41%NM 29.10%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.17%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.74%1.1%2026-05-17 10:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.40I 29.41%NM 29.10%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.17%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.74%1.1%2026-05-17 10:40
Kalshi3.33I 30.03%NM 29.12%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.68%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.20%3.1%2026-05-17 10:40