L’École des cotes

Sevilla v Atlético Madrid

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-11 19:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

56 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Sevilla (Local)

Prévision 43.31%2.31cote équitable
EV +3.07%
Avantage +1.29%
Kelly +2.22%
Croissance +0.068%

avec la cote maximale 2.38

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
40.49%43.21%43.29%44.06%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.102.222.202.3847.62%45.14%45.45%42.02%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Atlético Madrid (Visiteur)

Prévision 29.66%3.37cote équitable
EV -0.935%
Avantage -0.280%
Kelly -0.399%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.34

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
29.02%29.72%29.69%32.11%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.883.133.103.3434.72%31.91%32.26%29.94%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 27.03%3.70cote équitable
EV -0.513%
Avantage -0.139%
Kelly -0.191%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.68

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
25.81%27.07%27.02%28.82%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.003.443.453.6833.33%29.04%28.99%27.17%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (56 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
ATG (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.09%EV +3.07%E +1.29%K +2.22%G +0.068%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.56%EV -5.09%E -1.59%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.35%EV -6.73%E -1.95%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.3%2026-04-11 18:35
Unibet (NL)2.35I 42.55%NM 41.40%EV +1.77%E +0.752%K +1.31%G +0.023%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.40%EV -5.09%E -1.59%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.20%EV -6.73%E -1.95%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-11 18:50
Unibet (SE)2.35I 42.55%NM 41.40%EV +1.77%E +0.752%K +1.31%G +0.023%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.40%EV -5.09%E -1.59%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.20%EV -6.73%E -1.95%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-11 18:50
Svenska Spel2.35I 42.55%NM 41.40%EV +1.77%E +0.752%K +1.31%G +0.023%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.40%EV -5.09%E -1.59%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.20%EV -6.73%E -1.95%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-11 18:50
Casumo2.30I 43.48%NM 41.35%EV -0.398%E -0.173%K -0.306%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.68%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -8.08%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-11 18:50
Bally Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 41.35%EV -0.398%E -0.173%K -0.306%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.68%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -8.08%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-11 18:50
betPARX2.30I 43.48%NM 41.35%EV -0.398%E -0.173%K -0.306%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.68%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -8.08%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-11 18:50
Grosvenor2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -0.398%E -0.173%K -0.306%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -13.99%E -4.82%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -8.08%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-11 18:50
1xBet2.29I 43.67%NM 42.31%EV -0.831%E -0.363%K -0.644%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 31.36%EV -8.35%E -2.70%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 26.33%EV -0.513%E -0.139%K -0.191%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-11 18:50
Unibet2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -1.26%E -0.554%K -0.988%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.44%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.17%EV -9.43%E -2.82%K -4.01%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-11 18:50
TABtouch2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -1.26%E -0.554%K -0.988%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.44%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.17%EV -9.43%E -2.82%K -4.01%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-11 18:50
LeoVegas (SE)2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -1.26%E -0.554%K -0.988%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.44%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.17%EV -9.43%E -2.82%K -4.01%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-11 18:50
BetRivers2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -2.56%E -1.14%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -9.43%E -2.82%K -4.01%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-11 18:35
PMU (FR)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.33%EV -2.56%E -1.14%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.49%EV -9.54%E -3.13%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.18%EV -10.79%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-11 18:50
Pinnacle2.24I 44.64%NM 43.41%EV -3.00%E -1.34%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.73%EV -3.01%E -0.921%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.86%EV -2.13%E -0.590%K -0.815%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-11 18:50
Virgin Bet2.23I 44.84%NM 41.34%EV -3.43%E -1.54%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.73%EV -11.02%E -3.67%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -10.79%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-11 18:50
LeoVegas2.23I 44.84%NM 41.34%EV -3.43%E -1.54%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.73%EV -11.02%E -3.67%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -10.79%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-11 18:50
LiveScore Bet2.23I 44.84%NM 41.34%EV -3.43%E -1.54%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.73%EV -11.02%E -3.67%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -10.79%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-11 18:50
Coolbet2.22I 45.05%NM 43.68%EV -3.86%E -1.74%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.38%EV -2.12%E -0.643%K -0.922%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.94%EV -2.68%E -0.743%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-11 18:45
BetOnline.ag2.22I 45.05%NM 43.52%EV -3.86%E -1.74%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.64%EV -3.31%E -1.01%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.84%EV -2.68%E -0.743%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-11 18:50
LowVig.ag2.22I 45.05%NM 43.52%EV -3.86%E -1.74%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.64%EV -3.31%E -1.01%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.84%EV -2.68%E -0.743%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-11 18:50
Codere (IT)2.22I 45.05%NM 42.75%EV -3.86%E -1.74%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.13%EV -6.57%E -2.09%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.12%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-11 18:55
Marathon Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 44.06%EV -4.73%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 29.02%EV -0.935%E -0.280%K -0.399%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.92%EV -2.68%E -0.743%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-11 18:55
DraftKings2.20I 45.45%NM 43.54%EV -4.73%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.47%EV -3.60%E -1.11%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.98%EV -4.03%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-11 18:55
SportsBet2.20I 45.45%NM 43.18%EV -4.73%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -5.09%E -1.59%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-11 18:45
FanDuel2.20I 45.45%NM 43.18%EV -4.73%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -5.09%E -1.59%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-11 18:45
theScore Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 43.18%EV -4.73%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -5.09%E -1.59%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-11 18:01
Winamax (DE)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -4.73%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.04%EV -9.54%E -3.13%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.93%EV -1.32%E -0.363%K -0.500%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-11 18:30
Unibet (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.97%EV -4.73%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.01%EV -6.57%E -2.09%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.01%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-11 18:50
Tipico (DE)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -4.73%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -5.09%E -1.59%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -8.08%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-11 18:54
Betway2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -4.73%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -5.09%E -1.59%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -8.08%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-11 18:38
Fanatics2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -4.73%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -5.09%E -1.59%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -8.08%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-11 17:45
Coral2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -4.73%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-11 18:10
BetMGM2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -4.73%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-11 18:09
Sky Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -4.73%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -8.08%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 18:29
Neds2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -4.73%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -8.08%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 18:10
Ladbrokes (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -4.73%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -8.08%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 18:10
Ladbrokes (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -4.73%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -8.08%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 18:10
Bet Right2.20I 45.45%NM 42.39%EV -4.73%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.58%EV -9.54%E -3.13%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -6.73%E -1.95%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-11 18:15
William Hill2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -4.73%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -10.79%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-11 18:35
Mr Green (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -4.73%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -10.79%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-11 18:34
Betsson2.18I 45.87%NM 43.57%EV -5.59%E -2.57%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -5.09%E -1.59%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.75%EV -4.03%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-11 18:54
NordicBet2.18I 45.87%NM 43.57%EV -5.59%E -2.57%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -5.09%E -1.59%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.75%EV -4.03%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-11 18:54
Betclic (FR)2.18I 45.87%NM 43.28%EV -5.59%E -2.57%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 29.76%EV -5.98%E -1.89%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.96%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-11 18:53
Bovada2.17I 46.08%NM 43.71%EV -6.03%E -2.78%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -3.60%E -1.11%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.10%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-11 18:48
Bet Victor2.15I 46.51%NM 43.94%EV -6.89%E -3.21%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -3.60%E -1.11%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-11 18:53
Everygame2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -6.89%E -3.21%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -5.09%E -1.59%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-11 18:55
NetBet (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.37%EV -6.89%E -3.21%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.60%EV -6.57%E -2.09%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -6.73%E -1.95%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-11 18:40
Betr (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -6.89%E -3.21%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-11 18:15
Winamax (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -6.89%E -3.21%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -11.02%E -3.67%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -2.68%E -0.743%K -1.03%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-11 18:50
Paddy Power2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -6.89%E -3.21%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -8.08%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-11 18:45
TAB2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -6.89%E -3.21%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -8.08%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-11 18:55
PlayUp2.12I 47.17%NM 43.54%EV -8.19%E -3.86%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.31%EV -6.57%E -2.09%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -8.08%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-11 18:55
BoyleSports2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -9.06%E -4.31%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -8.08%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-11 18:39
Fliff2.10I 47.62%NM 43.19%EV -9.06%E -4.31%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.74%EV -9.54%E -3.13%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.07%EV -9.43%E -2.82%K -4.01%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-11 18:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 41.17%EV -9.06%E -4.31%K -8.24%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.02%EV -14.58%E -5.06%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.82%EV -18.90%E -6.30%K -9.45%G +0.000%15.7%2026-04-11 18:45
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.28I 43.86%NM 43.73%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.32%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.95%0.3%2026-04-11 18:55
Matchbook2.26I 44.25%NM 44.10%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.32%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.58%0.3%2026-04-11 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.28I 43.86%NM 43.57%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.22%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%0.7%2026-04-11 18:55
Smarkets2.26I 44.25%NM 43.95%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.21%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.84%0.7%2026-04-11 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.26I 44.25%NM 43.91%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.62%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.46%0.8%2026-04-11 18:55
Kalshi2.22I 45.05%NM 44.12%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.41%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.47%2.1%2026-04-11 18:55