La escuela de los momios

Sevilla v Atlético Madrid

Inicio: 2026-04-11 19:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Sevilla (Local)

Predicción 43.31%2.31momio equitativo
EV +3.07%
Ventaja +1.29%
Kelly +2.22%
Crecimiento +0.068%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.38

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
40.49%43.21%43.29%44.06%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.102.222.202.3847.62%45.14%45.45%42.02%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Atlético Madrid (Visitante)

Predicción 29.66%3.37momio equitativo
EV -0.935%
Ventaja -0.280%
Kelly -0.399%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.34

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.02%29.72%29.69%32.11%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.883.133.103.3434.72%31.91%32.26%29.94%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 27.03%3.70momio equitativo
EV -0.513%
Ventaja -0.139%
Kelly -0.191%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.68

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.81%27.07%27.02%28.82%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.443.453.6833.33%29.04%28.99%27.17%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
ATG (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.09%EV +3.07%E +1.29%K +2.22%G +0.068%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.56%EV -5.09%E -1.59%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.35%EV -6.73%E -1.95%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.3%2026-04-11 18:35
Unibet (NL)2.35I 42.55%NM 41.40%EV +1.77%E +0.752%K +1.31%G +0.023%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.40%EV -5.09%E -1.59%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.20%EV -6.73%E -1.95%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-11 18:50
Unibet (SE)2.35I 42.55%NM 41.40%EV +1.77%E +0.752%K +1.31%G +0.023%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.40%EV -5.09%E -1.59%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.20%EV -6.73%E -1.95%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-11 18:50
Svenska Spel2.35I 42.55%NM 41.40%EV +1.77%E +0.752%K +1.31%G +0.023%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.40%EV -5.09%E -1.59%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.20%EV -6.73%E -1.95%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-11 18:50
Casumo2.30I 43.48%NM 41.35%EV -0.398%E -0.173%K -0.306%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.68%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -8.08%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-11 18:50
Bally Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 41.35%EV -0.398%E -0.173%K -0.306%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.68%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -8.08%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-11 18:50
betPARX2.30I 43.48%NM 41.35%EV -0.398%E -0.173%K -0.306%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.68%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -8.08%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-11 18:50
Grosvenor2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -0.398%E -0.173%K -0.306%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -13.99%E -4.82%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -8.08%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-11 18:50
1xBet2.29I 43.67%NM 42.31%EV -0.831%E -0.363%K -0.644%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 31.36%EV -8.35%E -2.70%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 26.33%EV -0.513%E -0.139%K -0.191%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-11 18:50
Unibet2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -1.26%E -0.554%K -0.988%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.44%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.17%EV -9.43%E -2.82%K -4.01%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-11 18:50
TABtouch2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -1.26%E -0.554%K -0.988%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.44%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.17%EV -9.43%E -2.82%K -4.01%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-11 18:50
LeoVegas (SE)2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -1.26%E -0.554%K -0.988%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.44%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.17%EV -9.43%E -2.82%K -4.01%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-11 18:50
BetRivers2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -2.56%E -1.14%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -9.43%E -2.82%K -4.01%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-11 18:35
PMU (FR)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.33%EV -2.56%E -1.14%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.49%EV -9.54%E -3.13%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.18%EV -10.79%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-11 18:50
Pinnacle2.24I 44.64%NM 43.41%EV -3.00%E -1.34%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.73%EV -3.01%E -0.921%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.86%EV -2.13%E -0.590%K -0.815%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-11 18:50
Virgin Bet2.23I 44.84%NM 41.34%EV -3.43%E -1.54%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.73%EV -11.02%E -3.67%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -10.79%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-11 18:50
LeoVegas2.23I 44.84%NM 41.34%EV -3.43%E -1.54%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.73%EV -11.02%E -3.67%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -10.79%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-11 18:50
LiveScore Bet2.23I 44.84%NM 41.34%EV -3.43%E -1.54%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.73%EV -11.02%E -3.67%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -10.79%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-11 18:50
Coolbet2.22I 45.05%NM 43.68%EV -3.86%E -1.74%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.38%EV -2.12%E -0.643%K -0.922%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.94%EV -2.68%E -0.743%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-11 18:45
BetOnline.ag2.22I 45.05%NM 43.52%EV -3.86%E -1.74%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.64%EV -3.31%E -1.01%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.84%EV -2.68%E -0.743%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-11 18:50
LowVig.ag2.22I 45.05%NM 43.52%EV -3.86%E -1.74%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.64%EV -3.31%E -1.01%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.84%EV -2.68%E -0.743%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-11 18:50
Codere (IT)2.22I 45.05%NM 42.75%EV -3.86%E -1.74%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.13%EV -6.57%E -2.09%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.12%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-11 18:55
Marathon Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 44.06%EV -4.73%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 29.02%EV -0.935%E -0.280%K -0.399%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.92%EV -2.68%E -0.743%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-11 18:55
DraftKings2.20I 45.45%NM 43.54%EV -4.73%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.47%EV -3.60%E -1.11%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.98%EV -4.03%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-11 18:55
SportsBet2.20I 45.45%NM 43.18%EV -4.73%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -5.09%E -1.59%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-11 18:45
FanDuel2.20I 45.45%NM 43.18%EV -4.73%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -5.09%E -1.59%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-11 18:45
theScore Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 43.18%EV -4.73%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -5.09%E -1.59%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-11 18:01
Winamax (DE)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -4.73%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.04%EV -9.54%E -3.13%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.93%EV -1.32%E -0.363%K -0.500%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-11 18:30
Unibet (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.97%EV -4.73%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.01%EV -6.57%E -2.09%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.01%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-11 18:50
Tipico (DE)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -4.73%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -5.09%E -1.59%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -8.08%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-11 18:54
Betway2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -4.73%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -5.09%E -1.59%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -8.08%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-11 18:38
Fanatics2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -4.73%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -5.09%E -1.59%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -8.08%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-11 17:45
Coral2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -4.73%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-11 18:10
BetMGM2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -4.73%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-11 18:09
Sky Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -4.73%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -8.08%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 18:29
Neds2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -4.73%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -8.08%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 18:10
Ladbrokes (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -4.73%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -8.08%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 18:10
Ladbrokes (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -4.73%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -8.08%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 18:10
Bet Right2.20I 45.45%NM 42.39%EV -4.73%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.58%EV -9.54%E -3.13%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -6.73%E -1.95%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-11 18:15
William Hill2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -4.73%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -10.79%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-11 18:35
Mr Green (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -4.73%E -2.15%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -10.79%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-11 18:34
Betsson2.18I 45.87%NM 43.57%EV -5.59%E -2.57%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -5.09%E -1.59%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.75%EV -4.03%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-11 18:54
NordicBet2.18I 45.87%NM 43.57%EV -5.59%E -2.57%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -5.09%E -1.59%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.75%EV -4.03%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-11 18:54
Betclic (FR)2.18I 45.87%NM 43.28%EV -5.59%E -2.57%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 29.76%EV -5.98%E -1.89%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.96%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-11 18:53
Bovada2.17I 46.08%NM 43.71%EV -6.03%E -2.78%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -3.60%E -1.11%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.10%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-11 18:48
Bet Victor2.15I 46.51%NM 43.94%EV -6.89%E -3.21%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -3.60%E -1.11%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-11 18:53
Everygame2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -6.89%E -3.21%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -5.09%E -1.59%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-11 18:55
NetBet (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.37%EV -6.89%E -3.21%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.60%EV -6.57%E -2.09%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -6.73%E -1.95%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-11 18:40
Betr (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -6.89%E -3.21%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-11 18:15
Winamax (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -6.89%E -3.21%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -11.02%E -3.67%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -2.68%E -0.743%K -1.03%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-11 18:50
Paddy Power2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -6.89%E -3.21%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -8.08%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-11 18:45
TAB2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -6.89%E -3.21%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -8.08%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-11 18:55
PlayUp2.12I 47.17%NM 43.54%EV -8.19%E -3.86%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.31%EV -6.57%E -2.09%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -8.08%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-11 18:55
BoyleSports2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -9.06%E -4.31%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -8.05%E -2.60%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -8.08%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-11 18:39
Fliff2.10I 47.62%NM 43.19%EV -9.06%E -4.31%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.74%EV -9.54%E -3.13%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.07%EV -9.43%E -2.82%K -4.01%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-11 18:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 41.17%EV -9.06%E -4.31%K -8.24%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.02%EV -14.58%E -5.06%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.82%EV -18.90%E -6.30%K -9.45%G +0.000%15.7%2026-04-11 18:45
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.28I 43.86%NM 43.73%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.32%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.95%0.3%2026-04-11 18:55
Matchbook2.26I 44.25%NM 44.10%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.32%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.58%0.3%2026-04-11 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.28I 43.86%NM 43.57%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.22%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%0.7%2026-04-11 18:55
Smarkets2.26I 44.25%NM 43.95%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.21%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.84%0.7%2026-04-11 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.26I 44.25%NM 43.91%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.62%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.46%0.8%2026-04-11 18:55
Kalshi2.22I 45.05%NM 44.12%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.41%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.47%2.1%2026-04-11 18:55