La escuela de los momios

Real Sociedad v Valencia

Inicio: 2026-05-17 17:00 UTC

Final: Real Sociedad 3–4 Valencia

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Real Sociedad (Local)

Predicción 43.19%2.32momio equitativo
EV -0.234%
Ventaja -0.101%
Kelly -0.178%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.31

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.67%43.29%43.18%44.93%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.042.162.162.3149.02%46.23%46.30%43.29%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Valencia (Visitante)

Predicción 29.13%3.43momio equitativo
EV +3.42%
Ventaja +0.963%
Kelly +1.34%
Crecimiento +0.046%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.55

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.34%29.10%29.11%30.40%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.243.253.5533.33%30.83%30.77%28.17%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 27.68%3.61momio equitativo
EV -0.356%
Ventaja -0.099%
Kelly -0.137%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.32%27.61%27.71%29.17%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.423.413.6033.33%29.26%29.33%27.78%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Coolbet2.16I 46.30%NM 44.93%EV -6.71%E -3.11%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.34%EV +3.42%E +0.963%K +1.34%G +0.046%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.73%EV -3.12%E -0.892%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-16 13:35
LowVig.ag2.16I 46.30%NM 44.75%EV -6.71%E -3.11%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.02%EV +0.506%E +0.147%K +0.206%G +0.001%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.23%EV -1.74%E -0.490%K -0.682%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-16 18:45
BetOnline.ag2.16I 46.30%NM 44.75%EV -6.71%E -3.11%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.02%EV +0.506%E +0.147%K +0.206%G +0.001%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.23%EV -1.74%E -0.490%K -0.682%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-16 18:45
1xBet2.31I 43.29%NM 42.68%EV -0.234%E -0.101%K -0.178%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.99%EV -0.951%E -0.280%K -0.396%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 28.33%EV -3.68%E -1.06%K -1.48%G +0.000%1.4%2026-05-17 08:15
Unibet (NL)2.17I 46.08%NM 44.45%EV -6.28%E -2.89%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.37%EV -0.951%E -0.280%K -0.396%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.17%EV -1.74%E -0.490%K -0.682%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-16 17:20
Unibet (SE)2.17I 46.08%NM 44.45%EV -6.28%E -2.89%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.37%EV -0.951%E -0.280%K -0.396%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.17%EV -1.74%E -0.490%K -0.682%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-16 17:20
Svenska Spel2.17I 46.08%NM 44.45%EV -6.28%E -2.89%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.37%EV -0.951%E -0.280%K -0.396%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.17%EV -1.74%E -0.490%K -0.682%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-16 17:20
ATG (SE)2.17I 46.08%NM 44.45%EV -6.28%E -2.89%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.37%EV -0.951%E -0.280%K -0.396%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.17%EV -1.74%E -0.490%K -0.682%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-16 17:19
Marathon Bet2.27I 44.05%NM 42.67%EV -1.96%E -0.864%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 29.00%EV -2.70%E -0.808%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.32%EV -5.34%E -1.56%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-17 08:14
BetUS2.17I 46.08%NM 43.99%EV -6.28%E -2.89%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.58%EV -2.70%E -0.808%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.43%EV -3.68%E -1.06%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-15 14:50
Pinnacle2.28I 43.86%NM 42.69%EV -1.53%E -0.671%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.50%EV -3.86%E -1.17%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.81%EV -3.12%E -0.892%K -1.25%G +0.000%2.7%2026-05-17 10:40
Betclic (FR)2.22I 45.05%NM 43.35%EV -4.12%E -1.86%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.16%EV -3.86%E -1.17%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.49%EV -3.12%E -0.892%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-17 10:31
SportsBet2.20I 45.45%NM 43.22%EV -4.98%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.81%EV -3.86%E -1.17%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -5.89%E -1.73%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-17 06:10
FanDuel2.20I 45.45%NM 43.22%EV -4.98%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.81%EV -3.86%E -1.17%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -5.89%E -1.73%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-17 06:10
Fanatics2.20I 45.45%NM 43.22%EV -4.98%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.81%EV -3.86%E -1.17%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -5.89%E -1.73%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-17 05:30
DraftKings2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -7.14%E -3.32%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -3.86%E -1.17%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -3.12%E -0.892%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-14 23:50
Grosvenor2.14I 46.73%NM 44.25%EV -7.58%E -3.54%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.70%EV -3.86%E -1.17%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -3.12%E -0.892%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-16 17:20
Casumo2.14I 46.73%NM 44.25%EV -7.58%E -3.54%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.70%EV -3.86%E -1.17%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -3.12%E -0.892%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-16 17:20
betPARX2.14I 46.73%NM 44.25%EV -7.58%E -3.54%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.70%EV -3.86%E -1.17%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -3.12%E -0.892%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-16 17:20
Bally Bet2.14I 46.73%NM 44.25%EV -7.58%E -3.54%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.70%EV -3.86%E -1.17%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -3.12%E -0.892%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-16 17:20
Paddy Power2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.98%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -3.86%E -1.17%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -8.66%E -2.62%K -3.76%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-17 10:40
Tipico (DE)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.98%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -3.86%E -1.17%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -8.66%E -2.62%K -3.76%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-17 10:40
Sky Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -7.14%E -3.32%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -3.86%E -1.17%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.89%E -1.73%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-17 06:10
Codere (IT)2.21I 45.25%NM 42.92%EV -4.55%E -2.06%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.18%EV -5.32%E -1.64%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.90%EV -5.89%E -1.73%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-17 10:40
Unibet (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -4.98%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -5.32%E -1.64%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -5.89%E -1.73%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-17 10:40
Bet Victor2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -4.98%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -5.32%E -1.64%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -5.89%E -1.73%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-17 10:39
Everygame2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -4.98%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -5.32%E -1.64%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -5.89%E -1.73%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-17 05:25
William Hill2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -4.98%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -5.32%E -1.64%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -8.66%E -2.62%K -3.76%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-15 08:54
Mr Green (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.23%EV -7.14%E -3.32%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -5.32%E -1.64%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -8.66%E -2.62%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-14 20:16
NetBet (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.23%EV -7.14%E -3.32%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -5.32%E -1.64%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -8.66%E -2.62%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-17 05:25
Coral2.20I 45.45%NM 43.18%EV -4.98%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -6.78%E -2.12%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -3.12%E -0.892%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-17 10:40
BetMGM2.20I 45.45%NM 43.18%EV -4.98%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -6.78%E -2.12%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -3.12%E -0.892%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-17 10:40
Betsson2.22I 45.05%NM 42.79%EV -4.12%E -1.86%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -6.78%E -2.12%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.53%EV -4.51%E -1.31%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-17 10:40
NordicBet2.22I 45.05%NM 42.79%EV -4.12%E -1.86%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -6.78%E -2.12%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.53%EV -4.51%E -1.31%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-17 10:40
Bovada2.23I 44.84%NM 42.50%EV -3.69%E -1.65%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.62%EV -6.78%E -2.12%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.88%EV -5.89%E -1.73%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-17 10:40
theScore Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 44.07%EV -7.14%E -3.32%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -6.78%E -2.12%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -0.356%E -0.099%K -0.137%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-17 04:06
betfred_uk2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -7.14%E -3.32%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -6.78%E -2.12%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -3.12%E -0.892%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 04:05
Ladbrokes (UK)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -7.14%E -3.32%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -6.78%E -2.12%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -3.12%E -0.892%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 10:39
Winamax (DE)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.57%EV -7.14%E -3.32%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -6.78%E -2.12%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -4.51%E -1.31%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-17 05:30
Ladbrokes (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.57%EV -7.14%E -3.32%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -6.78%E -2.12%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -4.51%E -1.31%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-17 10:39
Neds2.15I 46.51%NM 43.57%EV -7.14%E -3.32%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -6.78%E -2.12%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -4.51%E -1.31%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-17 10:40
Unibet (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -9.30%E -4.43%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -6.78%E -2.12%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -8.66%E -2.62%K -3.76%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-17 06:30
LeoVegas (SE)2.08I 48.08%NM 44.04%EV -10.17%E -4.89%K -9.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -6.78%E -2.12%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV -7.28%E -2.17%K -3.10%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-16 17:20
TABtouch2.08I 48.08%NM 44.04%EV -10.17%E -4.89%K -9.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -6.78%E -2.12%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV -7.28%E -2.17%K -3.10%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-16 17:20
Unibet2.08I 48.08%NM 44.04%EV -10.17%E -4.89%K -9.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -6.78%E -2.12%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV -7.28%E -2.17%K -3.10%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-16 17:20
Betr (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.54%EV -7.14%E -3.32%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -8.23%E -2.61%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -3.12%E -0.892%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-17 04:05
BetRivers2.07I 48.31%NM 43.96%EV -10.60%E -5.12%K -9.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.88%EV -8.23%E -2.61%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.16%EV -7.28%E -2.17%K -3.10%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-16 17:20
PMU (FR)2.06I 48.54%NM 43.89%EV -11.03%E -5.35%K -10.41%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.71%EV -8.23%E -2.61%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -8.66%E -2.62%K -3.76%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-16 17:19
LiveScore Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 44.01%EV -11.46%E -5.59%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.64%EV -8.23%E -2.61%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -8.66%E -2.62%K -3.76%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-17 10:39
Virgin Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 44.01%EV -11.46%E -5.59%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.64%EV -8.23%E -2.61%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -8.66%E -2.62%K -3.76%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-16 17:20
Betway2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -2.82%E -1.26%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -9.69%E -3.13%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -5.89%E -1.73%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-17 06:25
TAB2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -4.98%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -9.69%E -3.13%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -5.89%E -1.73%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-17 10:40
Bet Right2.15I 46.51%NM 43.16%EV -7.14%E -3.32%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -9.69%E -3.13%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.90%EV -4.51%E -1.31%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-17 04:05
PlayUp2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -4.98%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -9.69%E -3.13%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -8.66%E -2.62%K -3.76%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-17 10:39
Winamax (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -9.30%E -4.43%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -9.69%E -3.13%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -5.89%E -1.73%K -2.45%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-17 10:40
LeoVegas2.04I 49.02%NM 43.75%EV -11.89%E -5.83%K -11.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.79%EV -9.69%E -3.13%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.46%EV -10.04%E -3.09%K -4.46%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-16 17:20
BoyleSports2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -7.14%E -3.32%K -6.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -12.60%E -4.20%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -8.66%E -2.62%K -3.76%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-17 10:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 41.67%EV -9.30%E -4.43%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.17%EV -12.60%E -4.20%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.17%EV -16.96%E -5.65%K -8.48%G +0.000%14.3%2026-05-17 07:16
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 43.20%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.80%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99%0.6%2026-05-17 10:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 43.20%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.80%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99%0.6%2026-05-17 10:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.30I 43.48%NM 43.20%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.80%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99%0.6%2026-05-17 10:40
Matchbook2.30I 43.48%NM 43.20%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.80%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99%0.6%2026-05-17 10:40
Smarkets2.28I 43.86%NM 43.42%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.69%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.89%1.0%2026-05-17 10:40
Kalshi2.27I 44.05%NM 43.60%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.68%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.72%1.0%2026-05-17 08:05