Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Real Sociedad v Espanyol

Kickoff: 2026-08-29 17:03 UTC

Final: Real Sociedad 2–1 Espanyol

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Real Sociedad (Local)

Prediction 51.15%1.95fair odd
EV -2.81%
Edge -1.48%
Kelly -3.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.65%51.17%51.10%54.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.831.851.9057.80%54.59%54.05%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Espanyol (Visit)

Prediction 23.21%4.31fair odd
EV +9.08%
Edge +1.93%
Kelly +2.46%
Growth +0.223%

assuming max odds 4.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.63%23.18%23.25%24.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.164.104.7027.78%24.07%24.39%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.64%3.90fair odd
EV -0.008%
Edge -0.002%
Kelly -0.003%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.35%25.65%25.65%27.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.673.703.9029.41%27.21%27.03%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Real Sociedad (Local): 51.15%; Espanyol (Visit): 23.21%; Draw: 25.64%. For Espanyol (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.31. 12 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.08%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.90%EV -7.42%E -4.10%K -9.15%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.76%EV +9.08%E +1.93%K +2.46%G +0.223%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.34%EV -1.29%E -0.335%K -0.453%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-29 16:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.90%EV -7.42%E -4.10%K -9.15%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.76%EV +9.08%E +1.93%K +2.46%G +0.223%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.34%EV -1.29%E -0.335%K -0.453%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-29 16:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.90%EV -7.42%E -4.10%K -9.15%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.76%EV +9.08%E +1.93%K +2.46%G +0.223%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.34%EV -1.29%E -0.335%K -0.453%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-29 16:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 54.18%EV -8.44%E -4.71%K -10.68%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.63%EV +9.08%E +1.93%K +2.46%G +0.223%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.19%EV -1.29%E -0.335%K -0.453%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-29 16:55
Grosvenor🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.90%EV -8.95%E -5.03%K -11.47%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.86%EV +6.76%E +1.47%K +1.88%G +0.127%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.25%EV -2.57%E -0.677%K -0.919%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-29 16:55
Casumo🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.43%EV -9.46%E -5.35%K -12.29%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%EV +4.44%E +0.987%K +1.27%G +0.056%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.56%EV -5.14%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-29 16:55
Bally Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.43%EV -9.46%E -5.35%K -12.29%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%EV +4.44%E +0.987%K +1.27%G +0.056%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.56%EV -5.14%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-29 16:55
betPARX🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.43%EV -9.46%E -5.35%K -12.29%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%EV +4.44%E +0.987%K +1.27%G +0.056%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.56%EV -5.14%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-29 16:55
Coolbet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 52.12%EV -4.86%E -2.61%K -5.65%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.03%EV +2.12%E +0.482%K +0.624%G +0.013%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.85%EV -3.85%E -1.03%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-29 15:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.27%EV -10.48%E -5.99%K -13.98%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV +2.12%E +0.482%K +0.624%G +0.013%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.54%EV -6.42%E -1.76%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-29 16:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.95%EV -10.48%E -5.99%K -13.98%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.30%EV +0.960%E +0.221%K +0.287%G +0.003%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-29 16:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.95%EV -10.48%E -5.99%K -13.98%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.30%EV +0.960%E +0.221%K +0.287%G +0.003%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-29 16:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.89%EV -4.35%E -2.32%K -5.00%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.57%EV -0.200%E -0.047%K -0.061%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.54%EV -2.57%E -0.677%K -0.919%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-29 16:55
FanDuel🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.17%EV -4.35%E -2.32%K -5.00%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.25%EV -0.200%E -0.047%K -0.061%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.58%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-29 16:45
SportsBet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.92%EV -4.86%E -2.61%K -5.65%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.02%EV -0.200%E -0.047%K -0.061%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -10.26%E -2.93%K -4.11%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-29 16:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.49%EV -7.93%E -4.40%K -9.91%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.97%EV -0.200%E -0.047%K -0.061%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -5.14%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-29 16:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.11%EV -11.51%E -6.65%K -15.76%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.37%EV -0.200%E -0.047%K -0.061%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-29 16:55
Pinnacle🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 51.34%EV -3.32%E -1.76%K -3.73%G +0.000%4.26I 23.47%NM 22.78%EV -1.13%E -0.265%K -0.346%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.88%EV -3.85%E -1.03%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-29 16:45
BetRivers🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.76%EV -6.39%E -3.49%K -7.70%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.29%EV -1.36%E -0.320%K -0.419%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.95%EV -6.42%E -1.76%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-29 16:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.34%EV -3.83%E -2.04%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.98%EV -2.52%E -0.600%K -0.788%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.67%EV -3.60%E -0.957%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-29 16:15
LowVig.ag🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.34%EV -3.83%E -2.04%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.98%EV -2.52%E -0.600%K -0.788%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.67%EV -3.60%E -0.957%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-29 16:15
Sky Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.44%EV -6.39%E -3.49%K -7.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%EV -2.52%E -0.600%K -0.788%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-29 16:40
Paddy Power🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.06%EV -6.39%E -3.49%K -7.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -2.52%E -0.600%K -0.788%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -10.26%E -2.93%K -4.11%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-29 16:40
1xBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 51.12%EV -2.81%E -1.48%K -3.12%G +0.000%4.19I 23.87%NM 23.18%EV -2.75%E -0.657%K -0.863%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.70%EV -3.08%E -0.816%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-29 16:50
BetUS🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.21%EV -5.37%E -2.90%K -6.32%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.83%EV -3.68%E -0.887%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -6.42%E -1.76%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-29 16:45
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.98%EV -4.35%E -2.32%K -5.00%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.25%EV -4.84%E -1.18%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.77%EV -5.14%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-29 16:15
Bovada🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.49%EV -3.83%E -2.04%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.15%EV -4.84%E -1.18%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.36%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-29 16:54
Everygame🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.07%EV -5.37%E -2.90%K -6.32%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.04%EV -4.84%E -1.18%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.89%EV -6.42%E -1.76%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-29 16:52
Betsson🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.91%EV -3.83%E -2.04%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.89%EV -4.84%E -1.18%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.20%EV -11.55%E -3.35%K -4.71%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 16:55
NordicBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.91%EV -3.83%E -2.04%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.89%EV -4.84%E -1.18%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.20%EV -11.55%E -3.35%K -4.71%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 16:55
Unibet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.30%EV -6.90%E -3.79%K -8.42%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV -4.84%E -1.18%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-29 16:45
Codere (IT)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.55%EV -3.83%E -2.04%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.76%EV -7.16%E -1.79%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.69%EV -5.14%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-29 16:55
theScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.90%EV -6.39%E -3.49%K -7.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.74%EV -7.16%E -1.79%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.35%EV -0.008%E -0.002%K -0.003%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 16:00
betano_uk🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.30%EV -5.37%E -2.90%K -6.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.73%EV -7.16%E -1.79%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -2.57%E -0.677%K -0.919%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-29 16:24
Bet Victor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.30%EV -5.37%E -2.90%K -6.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.73%EV -7.16%E -1.79%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -2.57%E -0.677%K -0.919%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-29 16:25
BetMGM🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.13%EV -5.37%E -2.90%K -6.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -7.16%E -1.79%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -3.85%E -1.03%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-29 16:25
Coral🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.13%EV -5.37%E -2.90%K -6.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -7.16%E -1.79%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -3.85%E -1.03%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-29 16:25
LeoVegas🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.96%EV -5.37%E -2.90%K -6.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -7.16%E -1.79%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -5.14%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-29 16:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.96%EV -5.37%E -2.90%K -6.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -7.16%E -1.79%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -5.14%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-29 16:55
Neds🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.96%EV -5.37%E -2.90%K -6.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -7.16%E -1.79%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -5.14%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-29 16:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.96%EV -5.37%E -2.90%K -6.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -7.16%E -1.79%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -5.14%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-29 16:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.96%EV -5.37%E -2.90%K -6.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -7.16%E -1.79%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -5.14%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-29 16:25
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.40%EV -6.39%E -3.49%K -7.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -7.16%E -1.79%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -3.85%E -1.03%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-29 16:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.16%EV -6.39%E -3.49%K -7.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -7.16%E -1.79%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.44%EV -5.65%E -1.53%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-29 16:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -5.37%E -2.90%K -6.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -7.16%E -1.79%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-29 16:40
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -5.37%E -2.90%K -6.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -7.16%E -1.79%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-29 16:45
Betway🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -5.37%E -2.90%K -6.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -7.16%E -1.79%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-29 16:45
NetBet (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.87%EV -6.39%E -3.49%K -7.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV -7.16%E -1.79%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-29 16:50
TAB🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -5.37%E -2.90%K -6.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -7.16%E -1.79%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -10.26%E -2.93%K -4.11%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-29 16:54
TABtouch🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.91%EV -7.93%E -4.40%K -9.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -7.16%E -1.79%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -10.26%E -2.93%K -4.11%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-29 16:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.52%EV -7.93%E -4.40%K -9.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -7.16%E -1.79%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -12.83%E -3.77%K -5.34%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-29 16:50
Betr (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.99%EV -5.37%E -2.90%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.19%EV -9.48%E -2.43%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.82%EV -2.57%E -0.677%K -0.919%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-29 16:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.12%EV -5.88%E -3.20%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -9.48%E -2.43%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.76%EV -2.57%E -0.677%K -0.919%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-29 16:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.26%EV -8.95%E -5.03%K -11.47%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.40%EV -9.48%E -2.43%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -7.70%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-29 16:55
Bet Right🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.63%EV -5.88%E -3.20%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.20%EV -10.64%E -2.76%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -5.14%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-29 16:40
Winamax (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.07%EV -6.90%E -3.79%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.14%EV -10.64%E -2.76%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.79%EV -3.85%E -1.03%K -1.40%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-29 16:55
PlayUp🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.96%EV -5.37%E -2.90%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.01%EV -10.64%E -2.76%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.03%EV -8.98%E -2.53%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-29 16:55
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.65%EV -7.93%E -4.40%K -9.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -16.45%E -4.57%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -10.26%E -2.93%K -4.11%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-29 16:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook1.95I 51.28%NM 51.44%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.81%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.75%-0.3%2026-08-29 16:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.94I 51.55%NM 51.32%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.13%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.55%0.4%2026-08-29 16:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.94I 51.55%NM 51.32%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.13%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.55%0.4%2026-08-29 16:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.94I 51.55%NM 51.32%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.13%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.55%0.4%2026-08-29 16:55
Smarkets1.94I 51.55%NM 51.14%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.05%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.81%0.8%2026-08-29 16:55
Kalshi1.92I 52.08%NM 51.54%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.75%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.71%1.0%2026-08-29 16:40