Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Real Sociedad v Atlético Madrid

Kickoff: 2026-09-13 19:02 UTC

Final: Real Sociedad 0–3 Atlético Madrid

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Real Sociedad (Local)

Prediction 27.90%3.58fair odd
EV +0.430%
Edge +0.119%
Kelly +0.165%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.42%27.89%27.93%29.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.383.403.6031.75%29.59%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Atlético Madrid (Visit)

Prediction 45.30%2.21fair odd
EV -1.69%
Edge -0.780%
Kelly -1.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.00%45.43%45.28%46.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.082.082.1751.28%48.17%48.08%46.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.80%3.73fair odd
EV +0.498%
Edge +0.133%
Kelly +0.181%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.18%26.68%26.79%28.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.553.523.7530.30%28.17%28.41%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Real Sociedad (Local): 27.90%; Atlético Madrid (Visit): 45.30%; Draw: 26.80%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.73. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.498%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Unibet (NL)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 27.49%EV -0.965%E -0.272%K -0.379%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.48%EV -4.86%E -2.32%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.03%EV +0.498%E +0.133%K +0.181%G +0.001%2.5%2026-09-13 18:45
Unibet (SE)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 27.49%EV -0.965%E -0.272%K -0.379%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.48%EV -4.86%E -2.32%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.03%EV +0.498%E +0.133%K +0.181%G +0.001%2.5%2026-09-13 18:45
ATG (SE)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 27.49%EV -0.965%E -0.272%K -0.379%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.48%EV -4.86%E -2.32%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.03%EV +0.498%E +0.133%K +0.181%G +0.001%2.5%2026-09-13 18:45
Svenska Spel🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 27.49%EV -0.965%E -0.272%K -0.379%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.48%EV -4.86%E -2.32%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.03%EV +0.498%E +0.133%K +0.181%G +0.001%2.5%2026-09-13 18:45
betfred_uk🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -10.73%E -3.35%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.12%EV -4.86%E -2.32%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.27%EV +0.498%E +0.133%K +0.181%G +0.001%5.5%2026-09-13 18:50
theScore Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -10.73%E -3.35%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.12%EV -4.86%E -2.32%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.27%EV +0.498%E +0.133%K +0.181%G +0.001%5.5%2026-09-13 18:40
Grosvenor🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.78%EV -3.75%E -1.09%K -1.53%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.31%EV -6.22%E -3.01%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.91%EV -0.842%E -0.228%K -0.312%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-13 18:45
1xBet🎯3.46I 28.90%NM 27.71%EV -3.48%E -1.00%K -1.41%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.09%EV -5.77%E -2.77%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.20%EV -1.91%E -0.523%K -0.720%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-13 18:56
BetRivers🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.79%EV -5.15%E -1.51%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.32%EV -7.58%E -3.72%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.89%EV -2.18%E -0.598%K -0.823%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-13 18:45
Casumo🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.79%EV -5.15%E -1.51%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.32%EV -7.58%E -3.72%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.89%EV -2.18%E -0.598%K -0.823%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-13 18:45
betPARX🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.79%EV -5.15%E -1.51%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.32%EV -7.58%E -3.72%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.89%EV -2.18%E -0.598%K -0.823%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-13 18:45
Bally Bet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.79%EV -5.15%E -1.51%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.32%EV -7.58%E -3.72%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.89%EV -2.18%E -0.598%K -0.823%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-13 18:45
Marathon Bet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 28.11%EV -3.75%E -1.09%K -1.53%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.10%EV -2.60%E -1.21%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.79%EV -2.99%E -0.825%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-13 18:55
FanDuel🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.06%EV -5.15%E -1.51%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.43%EV -4.86%E -2.32%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.50%EV -3.52%E -0.978%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-13 18:50
Betr (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -10.73%E -3.35%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.07%EV -2.60%E -1.21%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -3.52%E -0.978%K -1.35%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-13 18:56
Sky Bet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -5.15%E -1.51%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -3.52%E -0.978%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-13 18:50
Winamax (DE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -7.94%E -2.41%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -3.52%E -0.978%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-13 18:50
Unibet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.18%EV -10.73%E -3.35%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.89%EV -5.77%E -2.77%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -3.52%E -0.978%K -1.35%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 18:25
Bet Right🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.63%EV -12.12%E -3.85%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -4.86%E -2.32%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -3.52%E -0.978%K -1.35%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 18:50
BoyleSports🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -10.73%E -3.35%K -4.88%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.49%EV -11.66%E -5.98%K -12.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.18%EV -3.52%E -0.978%K -1.35%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-13 18:56
Pinnacle🎯3.59I 27.86%NM 27.09%EV +0.151%E +0.042%K +0.058%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.66%EV -3.50%E -1.64%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.24%EV -4.33%E -1.21%K -1.68%G +0.000%2.8%2026-09-13 18:50
Coolbet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.79%EV -2.36%E -0.674%K -0.944%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.82%EV -1.69%E -0.780%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.40%EV -4.86%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%2.8%2026-09-13 18:40
Codere (IT)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.96%EV -5.15%E -1.51%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.27%EV -4.86%E -2.32%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.78%EV -4.86%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-13 18:50
DraftKings🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.96%EV -5.15%E -1.51%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.27%EV -4.86%E -2.32%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.78%EV -4.86%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-13 18:35
LiveScore Bet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -5.15%E -1.51%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.86%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.48%EV -4.86%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-13 18:45
PMU (FR)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -6.54%E -1.95%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.04%EV -8.49%E -4.20%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -4.86%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-13 18:45
Virgin Bet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.63%EV -6.54%E -1.95%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.29%EV -9.39%E -4.70%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -4.86%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-13 18:45
Winamax (FR)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -10.73%E -3.35%K -4.88%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.70%EV -9.39%E -4.70%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.74%EV -4.86%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-13 18:50
LowVig.ag🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 27.21%EV -0.965%E -0.272%K -0.379%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.35%EV -3.50%E -1.64%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.67%E -1.61%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-13 18:56
BetOnline.ag🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 27.21%EV -0.965%E -0.272%K -0.379%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.35%EV -3.50%E -1.64%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.67%E -1.61%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-13 18:55
Everygame🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.27%EV -2.36%E -0.674%K -0.944%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.86%E -2.32%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.27%EV -6.20%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-13 18:38
Bet Victor🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV +0.430%E +0.119%K +0.165%G +0.001%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.40%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -6.20%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-13 18:55
betano_uk🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV +0.430%E +0.119%K +0.165%G +0.001%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.40%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -6.20%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-13 18:55
SportsBet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.56%EV -3.75%E -1.09%K -1.53%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.28%EV -4.86%E -2.32%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.17%EV -6.20%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-13 18:50
Tipico (DE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -2.36%E -0.674%K -0.944%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -6.20%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-13 18:31
Unibet (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -5.15%E -1.51%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.33%EV -5.77%E -2.77%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.94%EV -6.20%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-13 18:40
Fanatics🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -7.94%E -2.41%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -4.86%E -2.32%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -6.20%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-13 10:50
Neds🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -7.94%E -2.41%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -4.86%E -2.32%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -6.20%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-13 18:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -7.94%E -2.41%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -4.86%E -2.32%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -6.20%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-13 18:41
Coral🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -7.94%E -2.41%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -4.86%E -2.32%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -6.20%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-13 18:40
BetMGM🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -7.94%E -2.41%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -4.86%E -2.32%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -6.20%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-13 18:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -7.94%E -2.41%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -4.86%E -2.32%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -6.20%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-13 18:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -7.94%E -2.41%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -4.86%E -2.32%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -6.20%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-13 18:55
Betway🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -5.15%E -1.51%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -6.20%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-13 18:40
LeoVegas🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -7.94%E -2.41%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.95%EV -5.77%E -2.77%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -6.20%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-13 18:40
Paddy Power🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -7.94%E -2.41%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -6.20%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-13 18:50
TABtouch🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.16%EV -12.12%E -3.85%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.59%EV -6.67%E -3.24%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -6.20%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-13 18:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -7.94%E -2.41%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -9.39%E -4.70%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -6.20%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-13 18:45
Bovada🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -2.36%E -0.674%K -0.944%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 45.39%EV -5.32%E -2.54%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.50%EV -7.54%E -2.19%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-13 18:49
NordicBet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.33%EV -3.75%E -1.09%K -1.53%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.34%EV -5.77%E -2.77%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.33%EV -7.54%E -2.19%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-13 18:36
Betsson🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.33%EV -3.75%E -1.09%K -1.53%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.34%EV -5.77%E -2.77%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.33%EV -7.54%E -2.19%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-13 18:35
NetBet (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.94%E -2.41%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.14%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.82%EV -7.54%E -2.19%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-13 18:55
TAB🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -5.15%E -1.51%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -8.88%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-13 18:35
PlayUp🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.63%EV -6.54%E -1.95%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.15%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.22%EV -8.88%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-13 18:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -7.94%E -2.41%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -9.39%E -4.70%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -8.88%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-13 18:50
William Hill🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -7.94%E -2.41%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -4.86%E -2.32%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -11.56%E -3.50%K -5.03%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-13 18:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -7.94%E -2.41%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -4.86%E -2.32%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -11.56%E -3.50%K -5.03%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-13 18:56
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets3.55I 28.17%NM 28.54%2.28I 43.86%NM 44.44%3.75I 26.67%NM 27.02%-1.3%2026-09-13 18:56
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.55I 28.17%NM 28.09%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.32%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.59%0.3%2026-09-13 18:56
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.60I 27.78%NM 27.69%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.73%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.58%0.3%2026-09-13 18:50
Matchbook3.60I 27.78%NM 27.69%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.73%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.58%0.3%2026-09-13 18:56
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.60I 27.78%NM 27.57%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.96%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47%0.7%2026-09-13 18:55
Kalshi3.45I 28.99%NM 28.39%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.14%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.47%2.1%2026-09-13 18:41