La escuela de los momios

Real Madrid v Atlético Madrid

Inicio: 2026-03-22 20:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Real Madrid (Local)

Predicción 47.10%2.12momio equitativo
EV -1.10%
Ventaja -0.523%
Kelly -0.998%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
44.80%47.09%47.06%48.99%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.912.002.002.1052.36%49.88%50.00%47.62%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Atlético Madrid (Visitante)

Predicción 28.28%3.54momio equitativo
EV +4.93%
Ventaja +1.33%
Kelly +1.82%
Crecimiento +0.090%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.71

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.14%28.22%28.23%29.27%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.353.353.7132.26%29.83%29.85%26.95%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 24.62%4.06momio equitativo
EV -1.02%
Ventaja -0.255%
Kelly -0.339%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.02

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.74%24.68%24.70%27.60%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.793.804.0232.26%26.40%26.32%24.88%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet1.98I 50.51%NM 48.99%EV -6.75%E -3.41%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 26.14%EV +4.93%E +1.33%K +1.82%G +0.090%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.87%EV -3.98%E -1.02%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-22 19:55
Marathon Bet2.03I 49.26%NM 48.11%EV -4.39%E -2.16%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.98%EV +2.38%E +0.658%K +0.910%G +0.022%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.91%EV -3.49%E -0.889%K -1.19%G +0.000%2.4%2026-03-22 19:50
ATG (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 46.45%EV -1.10%E -0.523%K -0.998%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.87%EV -1.01%E -0.289%K -0.404%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.67%EV -6.44%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.5%2026-03-22 19:55
Unibet (SE)2.07I 48.31%NM 46.81%EV -2.51%E -1.21%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.69%EV -1.01%E -0.289%K -0.404%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.50%EV -6.44%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-22 19:55
Svenska Spel2.07I 48.31%NM 46.81%EV -2.51%E -1.21%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.69%EV -1.01%E -0.289%K -0.404%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.50%EV -6.44%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-22 19:54
Unibet (NL)2.06I 48.54%NM 46.93%EV -2.98%E -1.45%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.62%EV -1.01%E -0.289%K -0.404%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.44%EV -6.44%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-22 19:54
Coral1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -8.16%E -4.19%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -1.01%E -0.289%K -0.404%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -6.44%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-22 19:05
BetMGM1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -8.16%E -4.19%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -1.01%E -0.289%K -0.404%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -6.44%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-22 19:00
Coolbet2.05I 48.78%NM 47.35%EV -3.45%E -1.68%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.14%EV -2.42%E -0.703%K -0.990%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 24.51%EV -2.50%E -0.632%K -0.845%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-22 19:55
Unibet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.11%EV -8.16%E -4.19%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.20%EV -2.42%E -0.703%K -0.990%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -6.44%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-22 19:55
Betclic (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 47.27%EV -3.45%E -1.68%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.50%EV -3.84%E -1.13%K -1.60%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.23%EV -1.52%E -0.379%K -0.505%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-22 19:55
BetOnline.ag2.03I 49.26%NM 47.57%EV -4.39%E -2.16%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.40%EV -3.84%E -1.13%K -1.60%G +0.000%4.02I 24.88%NM 24.02%EV -1.02%E -0.255%K -0.339%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-22 19:54
LowVig.ag2.03I 49.26%NM 47.57%EV -4.39%E -2.16%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.40%EV -3.84%E -1.13%K -1.60%G +0.000%4.02I 24.88%NM 24.02%EV -1.02%E -0.255%K -0.339%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-22 19:55
Codere (IT)2.04I 49.02%NM 46.80%EV -3.92%E -1.92%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.08%EV -3.84%E -1.13%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.12%EV -6.44%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-22 19:55
Grosvenor2.02I 49.50%NM 46.89%EV -4.87%E -2.41%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -3.84%E -1.13%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.26%EV -7.67%E -2.05%K -2.79%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-22 19:54
Casumo2.02I 49.50%NM 46.89%EV -4.87%E -2.41%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -3.84%E -1.13%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.26%EV -7.67%E -2.05%K -2.79%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-22 19:55
betPARX2.02I 49.50%NM 46.89%EV -4.87%E -2.41%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -3.84%E -1.13%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.26%EV -7.67%E -2.05%K -2.79%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-22 19:55
Bally Bet2.02I 49.50%NM 46.89%EV -4.87%E -2.41%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -3.84%E -1.13%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.26%EV -7.67%E -2.05%K -2.79%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-22 19:55
theScore Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 47.29%EV -5.81%E -2.90%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.82%EV -3.84%E -1.13%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -6.44%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-22 19:55
Tipico (DE)1.97I 50.76%NM 47.97%EV -7.22%E -3.67%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.80%EV -3.84%E -1.13%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.23%EV -3.98%E -1.02%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-22 19:55
Betway2.00I 50.00%NM 47.13%EV -5.81%E -2.90%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -3.84%E -1.13%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.14%EV -7.67%E -2.05%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-22 18:49
LeoVegas (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -5.81%E -2.90%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -3.84%E -1.13%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -8.90%E -2.41%K -3.30%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-22 19:55
TABtouch2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -5.81%E -2.90%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -3.84%E -1.13%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -8.90%E -2.41%K -3.30%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-22 19:55
Neds1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -8.16%E -4.19%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -3.84%E -1.13%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -6.44%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-22 19:45
Ladbrokes (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -8.16%E -4.19%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -3.84%E -1.13%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -6.44%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-22 19:44
Ladbrokes (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -8.16%E -4.19%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -3.84%E -1.13%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -6.44%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-22 19:44
William Hill2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -5.81%E -2.90%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -3.84%E -1.13%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -11.36%E -3.16%K -4.37%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-22 19:40
Pinnacle2.09I 47.85%NM 46.55%EV -1.57%E -0.751%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.70%EV -4.12%E -1.22%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.75%EV -3.24%E -0.824%K -1.11%G +0.000%2.8%2026-03-22 19:45
DraftKings2.05I 48.78%NM 46.63%EV -3.45%E -1.68%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.54%EV -5.25%E -1.57%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.83%EV -5.21%E -1.35%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-22 19:50
NordicBet2.02I 49.50%NM 47.30%EV -4.87%E -2.41%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.52%EV -5.25%E -1.57%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.19%EV -2.75%E -0.696%K -0.931%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-22 19:49
Betsson2.02I 49.50%NM 47.30%EV -4.87%E -2.41%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.52%EV -5.25%E -1.57%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.19%EV -2.75%E -0.696%K -0.931%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-22 19:50
Unibet (UK)2.02I 49.50%NM 46.69%EV -4.87%E -2.41%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.16%EV -5.25%E -1.57%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -7.67%E -2.05%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-22 19:55
Unibet (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.01%EV -3.45%E -1.68%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.15%EV -5.25%E -1.57%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.84%EV -10.13%E -2.78%K -3.82%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-22 19:49
Everygame2.05I 48.78%NM 46.43%EV -3.45%E -1.68%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.84%EV -6.67%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.72%EV -5.21%E -1.35%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-22 19:54
Sky Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 47.48%EV -5.81%E -2.90%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.78%EV -6.67%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.74%EV -1.52%E -0.379%K -0.505%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-22 19:55
Bovada2.04I 49.02%NM 46.40%EV -3.92%E -1.92%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.69%EV -6.67%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.91%EV -6.44%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-22 19:54
SportsBet2.00I 50.00%NM 47.19%EV -5.81%E -2.90%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.60%EV -6.67%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.20%EV -3.98%E -1.02%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-22 19:50
FanDuel2.00I 50.00%NM 47.19%EV -5.81%E -2.90%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.60%EV -6.67%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.20%EV -3.98%E -1.02%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-22 19:55
Bet Victor2.00I 50.00%NM 47.19%EV -5.81%E -2.90%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.60%EV -6.67%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.20%EV -3.98%E -1.02%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-22 19:53
Betr (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.90%EV -5.81%E -2.90%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -6.67%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -6.44%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-22 19:55
Fanatics2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -3.45%E -1.68%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -6.67%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -11.36%E -3.16%K -4.37%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-22 19:50
BetRivers2.02I 49.50%NM 46.18%EV -4.87%E -2.41%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.27%EV -6.67%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.56%EV -10.13%E -2.78%K -3.82%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-22 19:44
Mr Green (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -5.81%E -2.90%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -6.67%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -11.36%E -3.16%K -4.37%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-22 19:39
NetBet (FR)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -8.16%E -4.19%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -6.67%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -8.90%E -2.41%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-22 19:54
LeoVegas1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -8.16%E -4.19%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -6.67%E -2.02%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -11.36%E -3.16%K -4.37%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-22 19:55
Winamax (DE)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.13%EV -5.81%E -2.90%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.00%EV -8.08%E -2.49%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.86%EV -2.75%E -0.696%K -0.931%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-22 19:50
PMU (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.69%EV -5.81%E -2.90%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -8.08%E -2.49%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -6.44%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-22 19:50
Bet Right1.97I 50.76%NM 47.22%EV -7.22%E -3.67%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.62%EV -8.08%E -2.49%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.16%EV -5.21%E -1.35%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-22 19:54
TAB2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -5.81%E -2.90%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -8.08%E -2.49%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.07%EV -8.90%E -2.41%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-22 19:49
Fliff1.91I 52.36%NM 47.37%EV -10.05%E -5.26%K -11.04%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.84%EV -8.08%E -2.49%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.79%EV -10.13%E -2.78%K -3.82%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-22 19:50
Paddy Power2.00I 50.00%NM 46.48%EV -5.81%E -2.90%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -9.50%E -2.97%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -6.44%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-22 19:50
PlayUp2.00I 50.00%NM 46.18%EV -5.81%E -2.90%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.50%E -2.97%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -8.90%E -2.41%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-22 19:50
Winamax (FR)1.96I 51.02%NM 46.92%EV -7.69%E -3.92%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.19%EV -10.91%E -3.46%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.89%EV -5.21%E -1.35%K -1.83%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-22 19:55
LiveScore Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 45.81%EV -5.81%E -2.90%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -10.91%E -3.46%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.10%EV -10.13%E -2.78%K -3.82%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-22 19:54
Virgin Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 45.81%EV -5.81%E -2.90%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -10.91%E -3.46%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.10%EV -10.13%E -2.78%K -3.82%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-22 19:54
BoyleSports1.95I 51.28%NM 46.53%EV -8.16%E -4.19%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -12.32%E -3.98%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.20%EV -7.67%E -2.05%K -2.79%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-22 19:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 44.80%EV -10.05%E -5.26%K -11.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.60%EV -12.32%E -3.98%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.60%EV -23.68%E -7.64%K -11.27%G +0.000%16.9%2026-03-22 19:39
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.16I 46.30%NM 46.17%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.90%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.93%0.3%2026-03-22 19:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 47.34%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.41%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.25%0.6%2026-03-22 19:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 47.34%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.41%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.25%0.6%2026-03-22 19:55
Matchbook2.14I 46.73%NM 46.40%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.82%0.7%2026-03-22 19:55
Smarkets2.12I 47.17%NM 46.63%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.65%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.71%1.2%2026-03-22 19:55
Kalshi2.13I 46.95%NM 46.04%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.45%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.51%2.0%2026-03-22 19:45