La escuela de los momios

Real Betis v Celta Vigo

Inicio: 2026-03-15 17:30 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Real Betis (Local)

Predicción 46.70%2.14momio equitativo
EV -1.93%
Ventaja -0.918%
Kelly -1.75%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
45.14%46.71%46.66%47.97%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.912.032.042.1052.36%49.34%49.02%47.62%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Celta Vigo (Visitante)

Predicción 25.13%3.98momio equitativo
EV -0.470%
Ventaja -0.119%
Kelly -0.159%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.96

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.20%25.16%25.09%26.76%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.303.733.753.9630.30%26.78%26.67%25.25%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 28.17%3.55momio equitativo
EV -1.42%
Ventaja -0.406%
Kelly -0.569%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.18%28.13%28.26%28.98%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.343.353.5033.33%29.94%29.85%28.57%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
ATG (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 46.57%EV -1.93%E -0.918%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.08%EV -1.98%E -0.507%K -0.682%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.35%EV -2.83%E -0.820%K -1.16%G +0.000%2.2%2026-03-15 16:35
Coolbet2.09I 47.85%NM 46.45%EV -2.40%E -1.15%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.58%EV -0.721%E -0.183%K -0.244%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.98%EV -5.65%E -1.69%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-15 17:20
Unibet (SE)2.08I 48.08%NM 46.81%EV -2.86%E -1.38%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.97%EV -1.98%E -0.507%K -0.682%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.22%EV -2.83%E -0.820%K -1.16%G +0.000%2.7%2026-03-15 16:35
Svenska Spel2.08I 48.08%NM 46.81%EV -2.86%E -1.38%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.97%EV -1.98%E -0.507%K -0.682%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.22%EV -2.83%E -0.820%K -1.16%G +0.000%2.7%2026-03-15 16:35
Marathon Bet2.08I 48.08%NM 46.60%EV -2.86%E -1.38%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.73%EV -1.48%E -0.376%K -0.505%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.68%EV -4.80%E -1.42%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-15 17:25
1xBet2.08I 48.08%NM 46.60%EV -2.86%E -1.38%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 24.47%EV -0.470%E -0.119%K -0.159%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.93%EV -5.65%E -1.69%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-15 17:20
LowVig.ag2.08I 48.08%NM 46.47%EV -2.86%E -1.38%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.10%EV -3.23%E -0.840%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.43%EV -4.24%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-15 16:50
BetOnline.ag2.08I 48.08%NM 46.47%EV -2.86%E -1.38%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.10%EV -3.23%E -0.840%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.43%EV -4.24%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-15 16:50
Unibet (NL)2.07I 48.31%NM 46.93%EV -3.33%E -1.61%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.91%EV -1.98%E -0.507%K -0.682%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.16%EV -2.83%E -0.820%K -1.16%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-15 16:35
Betclic (FR)2.07I 48.31%NM 46.51%EV -3.33%E -1.61%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.01%EV -3.23%E -0.840%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.48%EV -4.80%E -1.42%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-15 17:18
Pinnacle2.06I 48.54%NM 47.17%EV -3.80%E -1.84%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 24.66%EV -0.972%E -0.247%K -0.331%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.17%EV -2.83%E -0.820%K -1.16%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-15 17:25
Codere (IT)2.06I 48.54%NM 46.21%EV -3.80%E -1.84%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.38%EV -5.75%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.41%EV -5.65%E -1.69%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-15 17:20
BetUS2.05I 48.78%NM 46.72%EV -4.26%E -2.08%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.69%EV -2.48%E -0.639%K -0.861%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.59%EV -5.65%E -1.69%K -2.40%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-15 14:10
theScore Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 46.40%EV -4.26%E -2.08%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -9.52%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -1.42%E -0.406%K -0.569%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-15 15:30
DraftKings2.05I 48.78%NM 46.33%EV -4.26%E -2.08%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.32%EV -5.75%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.35%EV -5.65%E -1.69%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-15 16:20
Everygame2.05I 48.78%NM 46.33%EV -4.26%E -2.08%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.32%EV -5.75%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.35%EV -5.65%E -1.69%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-15 17:20
Fanatics2.05I 48.78%NM 46.28%EV -4.26%E -2.08%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -4.49%E -1.18%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -7.05%E -2.14%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-15 17:20
Coral2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -4.26%E -2.08%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -9.52%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -4.24%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-15 14:00
BetMGM2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -4.26%E -2.08%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -9.52%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -4.24%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-15 14:00
Betr (AU)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -4.26%E -2.08%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -4.24%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-15 14:10
Ladbrokes (AU)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -4.26%E -2.08%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -9.52%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -7.05%E -2.14%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-15 14:00
Neds2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -4.26%E -2.08%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -9.52%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -7.05%E -2.14%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-15 14:00
Ladbrokes (UK)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -4.26%E -2.08%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -9.52%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -7.05%E -2.14%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-15 14:00
Bet Right2.05I 48.78%NM 45.50%EV -4.26%E -2.08%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.85%EV -5.65%E -1.69%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-15 16:50
TAB2.05I 48.78%NM 45.45%EV -4.26%E -2.08%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -9.52%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -8.46%E -2.60%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-15 17:20
Casumo2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -4.73%E -2.32%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.02%EV -4.49%E -1.18%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.38%EV -5.65%E -1.69%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-15 16:35
Grosvenor2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -4.73%E -2.32%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.02%EV -4.49%E -1.18%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.38%EV -5.65%E -1.69%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-15 16:35
Bally Bet2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -4.73%E -2.32%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.02%EV -4.49%E -1.18%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.38%EV -5.65%E -1.69%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-15 16:35
betPARX2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -4.73%E -2.32%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.02%EV -4.49%E -1.18%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.38%EV -5.65%E -1.69%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-15 16:35
Bovada2.02I 49.50%NM 47.00%EV -5.66%E -2.80%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -3.23%E -0.840%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.34%EV -5.65%E -1.69%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-15 17:20
NordicBet2.02I 49.50%NM 46.92%EV -5.66%E -2.80%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.61%EV -7.00%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.47%EV -2.83%E -0.820%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-15 17:20
Betsson2.02I 49.50%NM 46.92%EV -5.66%E -2.80%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.61%EV -7.00%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.47%EV -2.83%E -0.820%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-15 17:20
LeoVegas (SE)2.02I 49.50%NM 46.49%EV -5.66%E -2.80%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV -5.75%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -7.05%E -2.14%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-15 16:45
Unibet2.02I 49.50%NM 46.49%EV -5.66%E -2.80%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV -5.75%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -7.05%E -2.14%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-15 16:45
TABtouch2.02I 49.50%NM 46.49%EV -5.66%E -2.80%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV -5.75%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -7.05%E -2.14%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-15 16:45
SportsBet2.00I 50.00%NM 47.29%EV -6.60%E -3.30%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -4.49%E -1.18%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.82%EV -4.24%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-15 17:25
FanDuel2.00I 50.00%NM 47.29%EV -6.60%E -3.30%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -4.49%E -1.18%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.82%EV -4.24%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-15 17:25
Bet Victor2.00I 50.00%NM 47.19%EV -6.60%E -3.30%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.20%EV -1.98%E -0.507%K -0.682%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.60%EV -7.05%E -2.14%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-15 17:24
Sky Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 47.13%EV -6.60%E -3.30%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.14%EV -5.75%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -4.24%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-15 17:10
Betway2.00I 50.00%NM 47.13%EV -6.60%E -3.30%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.14%EV -5.75%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -4.24%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-15 17:20
Parions Sport (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.74%EV -6.60%E -3.30%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -5.75%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -7.05%E -2.14%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-15 17:20
Paddy Power2.00I 50.00%NM 46.74%EV -6.60%E -3.30%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -5.75%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -7.05%E -2.14%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-15 17:25
BetRivers2.00I 50.00%NM 46.74%EV -6.60%E -3.30%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -5.75%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -7.05%E -2.14%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-15 16:35
PMU (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.59%EV -6.60%E -3.30%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -7.00%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -7.05%E -2.14%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-15 17:25
Winamax (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.46%EV -6.60%E -3.30%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -9.52%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.73%EV -5.65%E -1.69%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-15 17:20
PlayUp2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -6.60%E -3.30%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -9.52%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.05%E -2.14%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-15 17:20
Mr Green (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.18%EV -6.60%E -3.30%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -7.00%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.87%E -3.08%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-15 17:20
William Hill2.00I 50.00%NM 46.18%EV -6.60%E -3.30%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -7.00%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.87%E -3.08%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-15 17:19
LiveScore Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 45.90%EV -6.60%E -3.30%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -10.77%E -3.04%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -8.46%E -2.60%K -3.76%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-15 16:45
Virgin Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 45.90%EV -6.60%E -3.30%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -10.77%E -3.04%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -8.46%E -2.60%K -3.76%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-15 16:45
Tipico (DE)1.97I 50.76%NM 47.97%EV -8.00%E -4.06%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.23%EV -1.98%E -0.507%K -0.682%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.80%EV -4.24%E -1.25%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-15 17:20
NetBet (FR)1.97I 50.76%NM 46.96%EV -8.00%E -4.06%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -7.00%E -1.89%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.03%EV -7.05%E -2.14%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-15 17:20
Unibet (FR)1.96I 51.02%NM 47.60%EV -8.47%E -4.32%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -4.49%E -1.18%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.85%EV -5.65%E -1.69%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-15 17:25
LeoVegas1.96I 51.02%NM 46.73%EV -8.47%E -4.32%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.09%EV -8.26%E -2.26%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.18%EV -8.46%E -2.60%K -3.76%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-15 16:35
Fliff1.95I 51.28%NM 46.49%EV -8.93%E -4.58%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.18%EV -9.52%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -9.87%E -3.08%K -4.49%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-15 17:10
BoyleSports1.95I 51.28%NM 46.36%EV -8.93%E -4.58%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -8.46%E -2.60%K -3.76%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-15 16:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 45.14%EV -10.80%E -5.66%K -11.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.13%EV -17.06%E -5.17%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.74%EV -15.50%E -5.17%K -7.75%G +0.000%16.0%2026-03-15 17:25
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.10I 47.62%NM 47.25%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.95%0.8%2026-03-15 17:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 47.25%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.95%0.8%2026-03-15 17:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 47.06%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.71%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.24%1.2%2026-03-15 17:20
Matchbook2.10I 47.62%NM 47.06%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.71%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.24%1.2%2026-03-15 17:20
Smarkets2.10I 47.62%NM 46.87%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.61%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.53%1.6%2026-03-15 17:25
Kalshi2.08I 48.08%NM 47.11%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.49%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.40%2.1%2026-03-15 17:25