La escuela de los momios

Oviedo v Villarreal

Inicio: 2026-04-23 19:32 UTC

Final: Oviedo 1–1 Villarreal

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Oviedo (Local)

Predicción 28.98%3.45momio equitativo
EV +3.44%
Ventaja +0.964%
Kelly +1.34%
Crecimiento +0.046%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.57

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.78%28.90%29.01%30.85%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.263.253.5733.33%30.68%30.77%28.01%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Villarreal (Visitante)

Predicción 42.16%2.37momio equitativo
EV -1.76%
Ventaja -0.754%
Kelly -1.32%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.33

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
40.23%42.30%42.13%44.84%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.122.242.252.3347.17%44.73%44.44%42.92%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 28.86%3.47momio equitativo
EV -1.88%
Ventaja -0.552%
Kelly -0.782%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.19%28.80%28.86%30.29%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.273.303.4033.33%30.55%30.30%29.41%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet3.57I 28.01%NM 27.15%EV +3.44%E +0.964%K +1.34%G +0.046%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.47%EV -5.97%E -2.68%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.38%EV -4.76%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-23 19:29
Betsson3.55I 28.17%NM 26.78%EV +2.86%E +0.806%K +1.12%G +0.032%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.84%EV -10.61%E -5.00%K -9.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.38%EV -3.32%E -0.991%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 19:29
ATG (SE)3.45I 28.99%NM 28.21%EV -0.035%E -0.010%K -0.014%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.31%EV -3.02%E -1.31%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.49%EV -4.76%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-23 19:29
Unibet (SE)3.45I 28.99%NM 28.10%EV -0.035%E -0.010%K -0.014%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.52%EV -3.86%E -1.69%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.38%EV -4.76%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-23 19:30
Unibet (NL)3.45I 28.99%NM 28.10%EV -0.035%E -0.010%K -0.014%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.52%EV -3.86%E -1.69%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.38%EV -4.76%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-23 19:30
Svenska Spel3.45I 28.99%NM 28.10%EV -0.035%E -0.010%K -0.014%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.52%EV -3.86%E -1.69%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.38%EV -4.76%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-23 19:29
Marathon Bet3.45I 28.99%NM 28.09%EV -0.035%E -0.010%K -0.014%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.89%EV -4.71%E -2.08%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 29.02%EV -3.61%E -1.08%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-23 19:29
theScore Bet3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -1.48%E -0.436%K -0.618%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.22%EV -7.24%E -3.29%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.81%EV -4.76%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 19:30
Coolbet3.37I 29.67%NM 28.81%EV -2.35%E -0.698%K -0.993%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.21%EV -3.02%E -1.31%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.98%EV -3.32%E -0.991%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-23 19:28
Unibet (FR)3.35I 29.85%NM 28.66%EV -2.93%E -0.875%K -1.25%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.68%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.66%EV -3.32%E -0.991%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-23 19:29
PMU (FR)3.35I 29.85%NM 28.54%EV -2.93%E -0.875%K -1.25%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.49%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.97%EV -4.76%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-23 19:29
Grosvenor3.35I 29.85%NM 28.30%EV -2.93%E -0.875%K -1.25%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.52%EV -5.97%E -2.68%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.18%EV -6.21%E -1.91%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-23 19:30
Casumo3.35I 29.85%NM 28.30%EV -2.93%E -0.875%K -1.25%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.52%EV -5.97%E -2.68%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.18%EV -6.21%E -1.91%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-23 19:29
betPARX3.35I 29.85%NM 28.30%EV -2.93%E -0.875%K -1.25%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.52%EV -5.97%E -2.68%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.18%EV -6.21%E -1.91%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-23 19:30
Bally Bet3.35I 29.85%NM 28.30%EV -2.93%E -0.875%K -1.25%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.52%EV -5.97%E -2.68%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.18%EV -6.21%E -1.91%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-23 19:30
Unibet3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -2.93%E -0.875%K -1.25%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.66%EV -7.24%E -3.29%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -7.65%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 19:30
BetRivers3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -2.93%E -0.875%K -1.25%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.66%EV -7.24%E -3.29%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -7.65%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 19:21
TABtouch3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -2.93%E -0.875%K -1.25%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.66%EV -7.24%E -3.29%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -7.65%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 19:30
LeoVegas (SE)3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -2.93%E -0.875%K -1.25%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.66%EV -7.24%E -3.29%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -7.65%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 19:30
Pinnacle3.33I 30.03%NM 29.21%EV -3.51%E -1.05%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.75%EV -1.76%E -0.754%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.04%EV -3.32%E -0.991%K -1.41%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-23 19:29
LowVig.ag3.33I 30.03%NM 29.00%EV -3.51%E -1.05%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.99%EV -3.02%E -1.31%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.00%EV -3.90%E -1.17%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-23 19:29
BetOnline.ag3.33I 30.03%NM 29.00%EV -3.51%E -1.05%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.99%EV -3.02%E -1.31%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.00%EV -3.90%E -1.17%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-23 19:30
BetUS3.30I 30.30%NM 29.11%EV -4.38%E -1.33%K -1.90%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.02%E -1.31%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.11%EV -4.76%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-23 19:29
Tipico (DE)3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -4.38%E -1.33%K -1.90%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -7.65%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 19:30
SportsBet3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -4.38%E -1.33%K -1.90%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -7.24%E -3.29%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -4.76%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-23 19:30
FanDuel3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -4.38%E -1.33%K -1.90%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -7.24%E -3.29%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -4.76%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-23 19:30
Betclic (FR)3.27I 30.58%NM 28.85%EV -5.25%E -1.61%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.30%EV -5.97%E -2.68%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 28.85%EV -5.63%E -1.72%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 19:25
Codere (IT)3.25I 30.77%NM 29.40%EV -5.83%E -1.79%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.09%EV -4.29%E -1.89%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.52%EV -3.32%E -0.991%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-23 19:30
Unibet (UK)3.25I 30.77%NM 29.03%EV -5.83%E -1.79%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.94%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.03%EV -6.21%E -1.91%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 19:29
DraftKings3.25I 30.77%NM 29.03%EV -5.83%E -1.79%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.94%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.03%EV -6.21%E -1.91%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 19:30
Winamax (DE)3.25I 30.77%NM 29.01%EV -5.83%E -1.79%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.85%EV -7.24%E -3.29%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.14%EV -3.32%E -0.991%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-23 19:29
Sky Bet3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -5.83%E -1.79%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -7.24%E -3.29%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -4.76%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 19:29
LeoVegas3.25I 30.77%NM 28.28%EV -5.83%E -1.79%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 42.55%EV -8.92%E -4.13%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -9.09%E -2.89%K -4.23%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-23 19:30
Bovada3.20I 31.25%NM 29.62%EV -7.28%E -2.27%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.21%EV -3.02%E -1.31%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.17%EV -6.21%E -1.91%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-23 19:28
Everygame3.20I 31.25%NM 29.62%EV -7.28%E -2.27%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.21%EV -3.02%E -1.31%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.17%EV -6.21%E -1.91%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-23 19:30
Fanatics3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -7.28%E -2.27%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -3.02%E -1.31%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -7.65%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 19:30
Betway3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -7.28%E -2.27%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -6.21%E -1.91%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 19:30
Winamax (FR)3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -7.28%E -2.27%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -7.24%E -3.29%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -6.21%E -1.91%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-23 19:29
Paddy Power3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -7.28%E -2.27%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.24%E -3.29%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -7.65%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-23 19:29
Virgin Bet3.20I 31.25%NM 28.78%EV -7.28%E -2.27%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.44%EV -8.50%E -3.92%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.78%EV -7.65%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-23 19:29
LiveScore Bet3.20I 31.25%NM 28.78%EV -7.28%E -2.27%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.44%EV -8.50%E -3.92%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.78%EV -7.65%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-23 19:30
NetBet (FR)3.20I 31.25%NM 28.78%EV -7.28%E -2.27%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.44%EV -8.50%E -3.92%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.78%EV -7.65%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-23 19:29
Fliff3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -8.73%E -2.77%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -9.35%E -4.35%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -9.09%E -2.89%K -4.23%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-23 19:29
Bet Victor3.12I 32.05%NM 30.26%EV -9.60%E -3.08%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.97%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.77%EV -1.88%E -0.552%K -0.782%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-23 19:30
TAB3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -10.18%E -3.28%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -3.02%E -1.31%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -7.65%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 19:29
Coral3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -10.18%E -3.28%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -4.76%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 19:30
Neds3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -10.18%E -3.28%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -4.76%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 19:29
Ladbrokes (AU)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -10.18%E -3.28%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -4.76%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 19:29
Ladbrokes (UK)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -10.18%E -3.28%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -4.76%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 19:30
BetMGM3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -10.18%E -3.28%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -4.76%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 19:29
William Hill3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -10.18%E -3.28%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -9.35%E -4.35%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -1.88%E -0.552%K -0.782%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-23 19:29
Mr Green (SE)3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -10.18%E -3.28%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -9.35%E -4.35%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -1.88%E -0.552%K -0.782%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-23 19:29
BoyleSports3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -10.18%E -3.28%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -9.35%E -4.35%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -6.21%E -1.91%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-23 19:30
betfred_uk3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -10.18%E -3.28%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -13.42%E -4.47%K -6.71%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-23 19:29
Betr (AU)3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -11.63%E -3.81%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.68%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.58%EV -1.88%E -0.552%K -0.782%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 19:29
Bet Right3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -11.63%E -3.81%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.51%EV -5.13%E -2.28%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -3.32%E -0.991%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 19:29
PlayUp3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -13.07%E -4.36%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -3.02%E -1.31%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.65%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-23 19:29
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.50I 28.57%NM 28.40%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.40%0.6%2026-04-23 19:30
Matchbook3.45I 28.99%NM 28.80%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.82%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.38%0.7%2026-04-23 19:29
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.40I 29.41%NM 29.20%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.43%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.37%0.7%2026-04-23 19:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.40I 29.41%NM 29.10%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.64%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.26%1.1%2026-04-23 19:29
Smarkets3.45I 28.99%NM 28.46%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.07%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.46%1.8%2026-04-23 19:30
Kalshi3.33I 30.03%NM 29.41%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.15%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.44%2.1%2026-04-23 19:30