La escuela de los momios

Mallorca v Real Sociedad

Inicio: 2026-02-28 17:30 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Mallorca (Local)

Predicción 30.57%3.27momio equitativo
EV -1.57%
Ventaja -0.489%
Kelly -0.709%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.22

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.49%30.57%30.60%31.62%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.883.083.103.2234.72%32.47%32.26%31.06%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Real Sociedad (Visitante)

Predicción 40.09%2.49momio equitativo
EV -1.78%
Ventaja -0.727%
Kelly -1.23%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.45

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
39.03%40.11%40.09%41.03%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.202.362.352.4545.45%42.43%42.55%40.82%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 29.34%3.41momio equitativo
EV -0.820%
Ventaja -0.243%
Kelly -0.344%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.38

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.29%29.32%29.31%30.82%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.803.213.203.3835.71%31.20%31.25%29.59%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
BetOnline.ag3.22I 31.06%NM 30.04%EV -1.57%E -0.489%K -0.709%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.64%EV -4.59%E -1.93%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.31%EV -3.17%E -0.960%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.4%2026-02-28 16:35
LowVig.ag3.22I 31.06%NM 30.04%EV -1.57%E -0.489%K -0.709%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.64%EV -4.59%E -1.93%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.31%EV -3.17%E -0.960%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.4%2026-02-28 16:35
Pinnacle3.21I 31.15%NM 30.31%EV -1.88%E -0.585%K -0.850%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 40.38%EV -3.38%E -1.40%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.31%EV -2.58%E -0.777%K -1.11%G +0.000%2.8%2026-02-28 17:15
ATG (SE)3.20I 31.25%NM 30.39%EV -2.18%E -0.683%K -0.993%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.69%EV -1.78%E -0.727%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.92%EV -4.63%E -1.43%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.8%2026-02-28 17:04
Coolbet3.20I 31.25%NM 30.39%EV -2.18%E -0.683%K -0.993%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.69%EV -1.78%E -0.727%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.92%EV -4.63%E -1.43%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.8%2026-02-28 16:35
Unibet (SE)3.20I 31.25%NM 30.29%EV -2.18%E -0.683%K -0.993%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.89%EV -2.58%E -1.06%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.82%EV -4.63%E -1.43%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.2%2026-02-28 17:04
Svenska Spel3.20I 31.25%NM 30.29%EV -2.18%E -0.683%K -0.993%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.89%EV -2.58%E -1.06%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.82%EV -4.63%E -1.43%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.2%2026-02-28 17:05
Marathon Bet3.20I 31.25%NM 30.27%EV -2.18%E -0.683%K -0.993%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 40.19%EV -3.38%E -1.40%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.53%EV -3.75%E -1.14%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.2%2026-02-28 17:09
Unibet (NL)3.20I 31.25%NM 30.14%EV -2.18%E -0.683%K -0.993%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.19%EV -3.79%E -1.58%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.68%EV -4.63%E -1.43%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.7%2026-02-28 17:04
Tipico (DE)3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -2.18%E -0.683%K -0.993%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -7.79%E -3.39%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -6.10%E -1.91%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-28 17:09
BetUS3.15I 31.75%NM 30.47%EV -3.71%E -1.18%K -1.73%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.99%EV -3.79%E -1.58%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.53%EV -4.63%E -1.43%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.2%2026-02-28 17:24
DraftKings3.15I 31.75%NM 30.21%EV -3.71%E -1.18%K -1.73%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.50%EV -5.79%E -2.46%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.28%EV -4.63%E -1.43%K -2.06%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-28 16:45
Everygame3.15I 31.75%NM 30.21%EV -3.71%E -1.18%K -1.73%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.50%EV -5.79%E -2.46%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.28%EV -4.63%E -1.43%K -2.06%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-28 17:04
Betclic (FR)3.13I 31.95%NM 30.74%EV -4.32%E -1.38%K -2.03%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.10%EV -3.79%E -1.58%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.16%EV -3.17%E -0.960%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.9%2026-02-28 17:09
Bovada3.12I 32.05%NM 30.38%EV -4.63%E -1.48%K -2.18%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.00%EV -4.99%E -2.10%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.62%EV -6.10%E -1.91%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-28 17:22
Unibet (FR)3.12I 32.05%NM 30.29%EV -4.63%E -1.48%K -2.18%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 40.91%EV -7.39%E -3.20%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.81%EV -3.75%E -1.14%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-28 17:19
Codere (IT)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.81%EV -5.24%E -1.69%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.80%EV -3.79%E -1.58%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.39%EV -4.63%E -1.43%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.7%2026-02-28 17:09
Bet Victor3.10I 32.26%NM 30.71%EV -5.24%E -1.69%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.00%EV -4.59%E -1.93%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.29%EV -4.63%E -1.43%K -2.06%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-28 17:22
FanDuel3.10I 32.26%NM 30.69%EV -5.24%E -1.69%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.48%EV -5.79%E -2.46%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.83%EV -3.17%E -0.960%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-28 17:14
Fanatics3.10I 32.26%NM 30.67%EV -5.24%E -1.69%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.62%EV -3.79%E -1.58%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.71%EV -6.10%E -1.91%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-28 05:24
SportsBet3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -5.24%E -1.69%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -7.79%E -3.39%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -3.17%E -0.960%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-28 17:15
theScore Bet3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -5.24%E -1.69%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -7.79%E -3.39%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -3.17%E -0.960%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-28 17:04
Betway3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -5.24%E -1.69%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -3.79%E -1.58%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -9.04%E -2.91%K -4.30%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-28 17:09
Grosvenor3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -5.24%E -1.69%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.93%EV -5.79%E -2.46%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -7.57%E -2.40%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-28 17:05
Unibet3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -5.24%E -1.69%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.93%EV -5.79%E -2.46%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -7.57%E -2.40%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-28 17:05
TABtouch3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -5.24%E -1.69%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.93%EV -5.79%E -2.46%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -7.57%E -2.40%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-28 17:04
Casumo3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -5.24%E -1.69%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.93%EV -5.79%E -2.46%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -7.57%E -2.40%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-28 17:05
LeoVegas (SE)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -5.24%E -1.69%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.93%EV -5.79%E -2.46%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -7.57%E -2.40%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-28 17:05
betPARX3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -5.24%E -1.69%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.93%EV -5.79%E -2.46%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -7.57%E -2.40%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-28 17:05
Bally Bet3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -5.24%E -1.69%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.93%EV -5.79%E -2.46%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -7.57%E -2.40%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-28 17:04
BetRivers3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -5.24%E -1.69%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.14%EV -6.59%E -2.83%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.69%EV -7.57%E -2.40%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-28 17:04
TAB3.10I 32.26%NM 30.01%EV -5.24%E -1.69%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.45%EV -7.79%E -3.39%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -7.57%E -2.40%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-28 17:19
1xBet3.08I 32.47%NM 31.51%EV -5.85%E -1.90%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.78%EV -2.18%E -0.894%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.71%EV -0.820%E -0.243%K -0.344%G +0.000%3.0%2026-02-28 17:19
Betsson3.05I 32.79%NM 31.06%EV -6.77%E -2.22%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.80%EV -4.59%E -1.93%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.15%EV -4.63%E -1.43%K -2.06%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-28 17:19
NordicBet3.05I 32.79%NM 31.06%EV -6.77%E -2.22%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.80%EV -4.59%E -1.93%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.15%EV -4.63%E -1.43%K -2.06%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-28 17:19
Unibet (UK)3.05I 32.79%NM 30.92%EV -6.77%E -2.22%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.62%EV -4.59%E -1.93%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.47%EV -6.10%E -1.91%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-28 17:09
PMU (FR)3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -6.77%E -2.22%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.62%EV -7.79%E -3.39%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -4.63%E -1.43%K -2.06%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-28 17:14
Virgin Bet3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -6.77%E -2.22%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.06%EV -7.79%E -3.39%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -9.04%E -2.91%K -4.30%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-28 17:05
LiveScore Bet3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -6.77%E -2.22%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.06%EV -7.79%E -3.39%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -9.04%E -2.91%K -4.30%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-28 17:05
LeoVegas3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -6.77%E -2.22%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.06%EV -7.79%E -3.39%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -9.04%E -2.91%K -4.30%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-28 17:05
Winamax (DE)3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -8.30%E -2.77%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.07%EV -5.79%E -2.46%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -3.17%E -0.960%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-28 17:09
Coral3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -8.30%E -2.77%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -3.79%E -1.58%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -6.10%E -1.91%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-28 17:09
Ladbrokes (UK)3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -8.30%E -2.77%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -3.79%E -1.58%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -6.10%E -1.91%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-28 17:09
BetMGM3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -8.30%E -2.77%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -3.79%E -1.58%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -6.10%E -1.91%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-28 17:09
Betr (AU)3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -8.30%E -2.77%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -5.79%E -2.46%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -4.63%E -1.43%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-28 17:04
Neds3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -8.30%E -2.77%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.03%EV -3.79%E -1.58%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV -7.57%E -2.40%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-28 17:09
Ladbrokes (AU)3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -8.30%E -2.77%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.03%EV -3.79%E -1.58%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV -7.57%E -2.40%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-28 17:09
Sky Bet3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -8.30%E -2.77%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -7.79%E -3.39%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -3.17%E -0.960%K -1.38%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 17:19
William Hill3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -8.30%E -2.77%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.05%EV -4.59%E -1.93%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -9.04%E -2.91%K -4.30%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-28 05:24
Mr Green (SE)3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -8.30%E -2.77%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.05%EV -4.59%E -1.93%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -9.04%E -2.91%K -4.30%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-28 05:24
Paddy Power3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -8.30%E -2.77%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -7.79%E -3.39%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -6.10%E -1.91%K -2.77%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-28 17:14
NetBet (FR)3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -8.30%E -2.77%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.84%EV -6.99%E -3.01%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -7.57%E -2.40%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-28 17:09
Parions Sport (FR)3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -8.30%E -2.77%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.05%EV -7.79%E -3.39%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -7.57%E -2.40%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-28 17:19
BoyleSports3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -8.30%E -2.77%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -9.80%E -4.35%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -6.10%E -1.91%K -2.77%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-28 14:05
Bet Right2.95I 33.90%NM 31.62%EV -9.83%E -3.33%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.69%EV -5.79%E -2.46%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -4.63%E -1.43%K -2.06%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-28 17:24
Winamax (FR)2.95I 33.90%NM 31.35%EV -9.83%E -3.33%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.20%EV -7.79%E -3.39%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -4.63%E -1.43%K -2.06%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-28 16:35
Fliff2.95I 33.90%NM 30.92%EV -9.83%E -3.33%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.66%EV -7.79%E -3.39%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -9.04%E -2.91%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.6%2026-02-28 17:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.88I 34.72%NM 29.96%EV -11.97%E -4.16%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.22%EV -11.80%E -5.37%K -9.84%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.82%EV -17.84%E -6.37%K -9.91%G +0.000%15.9%2026-02-28 17:04
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.30I 30.30%NM 30.19%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.50%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.30%0.4%2026-02-28 17:24
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.30I 30.30%NM 30.19%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.50%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.30%0.4%2026-02-28 17:25
Matchbook3.30I 30.30%NM 30.19%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.50%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.30%0.4%2026-02-28 17:24
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.30I 30.30%NM 30.09%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.70%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.21%0.7%2026-02-28 17:25
Smarkets3.25I 30.77%NM 30.38%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.14%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.48%1.3%2026-02-28 17:24