Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Girona v Villarreal

Kickoff: 2026-04-06 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Girona (Local)

Prediction 31.59%3.17fair odd
EV +1.39%
Edge +0.433%
Kelly +0.629%
Growth +0.009%

assuming max odds 3.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.24%31.60%31.62%33.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.993.003.2136.36%33.42%33.33%31.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Villarreal (Visit)

Prediction 41.47%2.41fair odd
EV -1.30%
Edge -0.548%
Kelly -0.944%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.67%41.51%41.46%43.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.262.272.3850.00%44.19%43.96%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.95%3.71fair odd
EV -0.303%
Edge -0.082%
Kelly -0.112%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.74%26.89%26.92%27.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.503.503.7032.26%28.54%28.57%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Girona (Local): 31.59%; Villarreal (Visit): 41.47%; Draw: 26.95%. For Girona (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.17. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.21, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.39%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.21I 31.15%NM 30.24%EV +1.39%E +0.433%K +0.629%G +0.009%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.95%EV -6.28%E -2.78%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.81%EV -2.46%E -0.679%K -0.938%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-06 18:55
ATG (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.99%EV -0.505%E -0.160%K -0.235%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.90%EV -3.38%E -1.45%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.12%EV -3.00%E -0.833%K -1.15%G +0.000%2.4%2026-04-06 18:00
Unibet (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.82%EV -0.505%E -0.160%K -0.235%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.21%EV -4.62%E -2.01%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.97%EV -3.00%E -0.833%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-06 18:05
Svenska Spel🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.82%EV -0.505%E -0.160%K -0.235%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.21%EV -4.62%E -2.01%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.97%EV -3.00%E -0.833%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-06 18:00
Unibet (NL)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.71%EV -0.505%E -0.160%K -0.235%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.42%EV -5.45%E -2.39%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.87%EV -3.00%E -0.833%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-06 18:25
LowVig.ag🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.63%EV -0.505%E -0.160%K -0.235%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.08%EV -7.11%E -3.17%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 26.29%EV -1.11%E -0.303%K -0.416%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-06 18:50
BetOnline.ag🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.63%EV -0.505%E -0.160%K -0.235%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.08%EV -7.11%E -3.17%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 26.29%EV -1.11%E -0.303%K -0.416%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-06 18:50
Marathon Bet🎯3.12I 32.05%NM 30.93%EV -1.45%E -0.466%K -0.685%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.96%EV -4.62%E -2.01%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 27.11%EV -4.08%E -1.14%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-06 18:50
Coolbet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 31.38%EV -2.08%E -0.672%K -0.993%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.22%EV -2.13%E -0.904%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.40%EV -4.34%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-06 18:19
Pinnacle🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 31.37%EV -2.08%E -0.672%K -0.993%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.92%EV -3.79%E -1.63%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.72%EV -1.92%E -0.527%K -0.727%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-06 18:45
Grosvenor🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.76%EV -2.08%E -0.672%K -0.993%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.38%EV -6.69%E -2.98%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.86%EV -4.34%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-06 18:25
Casumo🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.76%EV -2.08%E -0.672%K -0.993%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.38%EV -6.69%E -2.98%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.86%EV -4.34%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-06 18:25
betPARX🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.76%EV -2.08%E -0.672%K -0.993%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.38%EV -6.69%E -2.98%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.86%EV -4.34%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-06 18:25
Bally Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.76%EV -2.08%E -0.672%K -0.993%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.38%EV -6.69%E -2.98%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.86%EV -4.34%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-06 18:25
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -2.08%E -0.672%K -0.993%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -8.77%E -3.99%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -5.69%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-06 17:25
DraftKings🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.39%EV -3.66%E -1.20%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.63%EV -4.62%E -2.01%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.97%EV -4.34%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-06 16:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -3.66%E -1.20%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.22%EV -7.52%E -3.37%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -5.69%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-06 18:25
TABtouch🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -3.66%E -1.20%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.22%EV -7.52%E -3.37%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -5.69%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-06 18:25
Unibet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -3.66%E -1.20%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.22%EV -7.52%E -3.37%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -5.69%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-06 18:25
BetRivers🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.70%EV -3.66%E -1.20%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -8.77%E -3.99%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.75%EV -5.69%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-06 18:25
Codere (IT)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.69%EV -5.24%E -1.75%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 41.52%EV -5.04%E -2.20%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.78%EV -4.34%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-06 18:50
SportsBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -5.24%E -1.75%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.26%EV -4.62%E -2.01%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -5.69%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-06 18:40
FanDuel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -5.24%E -1.75%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.26%EV -4.62%E -2.01%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -5.69%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-06 18:40
Bet Victor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -5.24%E -1.75%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.26%EV -4.62%E -2.01%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -5.69%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-06 18:50
Everygame🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -5.24%E -1.75%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.26%EV -4.62%E -2.01%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -5.69%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-06 18:54
Bovada🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -5.24%E -1.75%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.73%EV -5.86%E -2.58%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.69%EV -4.34%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-06 18:53
Coral🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -5.24%E -1.75%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -4.62%E -2.01%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.49%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-06 16:30
Fanatics🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -5.24%E -1.75%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -4.62%E -2.01%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.49%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-06 16:55
Unibet (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -5.24%E -1.75%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -6.69%E -2.98%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.69%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-06 18:45
William Hill🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -5.24%E -1.75%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.69%E -2.98%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-06 18:55
PMU (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -5.24%E -1.75%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.18%EV -8.77%E -3.99%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.89%EV -7.04%E -2.04%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-06 18:00
Virgin Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -5.24%E -1.75%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.51%EV -10.01%E -4.61%K -8.56%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.74%EV -7.04%E -2.04%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-06 18:24
LiveScore Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -5.24%E -1.75%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.51%EV -10.01%E -4.61%K -8.56%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.74%EV -7.04%E -2.04%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-06 18:25
LeoVegas🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.69%EV -5.24%E -1.75%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.23%EV -9.60%E -4.40%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-06 18:01
Betsson🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 32.01%EV -5.87%E -1.97%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -3.79%E -1.63%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.87%EV -4.34%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-06 18:55
NordicBet🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 32.01%EV -5.87%E -1.97%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -3.79%E -1.63%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.87%EV -4.34%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-06 18:55
BetUS🎯2.96I 33.78%NM 32.08%EV -6.51%E -2.20%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 41.47%EV -5.04%E -2.20%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.45%EV -3.27%E -0.910%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-06 18:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.06%EV -6.82%E -2.31%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.03%EV -6.69%E -2.98%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.91%EV -1.65%E -0.452%K -0.623%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-06 18:35
Unibet (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.41%EV -6.82%E -2.31%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.12%EV -8.77%E -3.99%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -5.69%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-06 18:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 31.87%EV -7.77%E -2.66%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.00%EV -5.86%E -2.58%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 27.13%EV -7.58%E -2.21%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-06 18:50
NetBet (FR)🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 31.68%EV -7.77%E -2.66%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.11%EV -6.69%E -2.98%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-06 18:55
theScore Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.84%EV -8.40%E -2.90%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.41%EV -4.62%E -2.01%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.74%EV -0.303%E -0.082%K -0.112%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-06 18:25
BetMGM🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.65%EV -8.40%E -2.90%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.29%EV -2.55%E -1.08%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.05%EV -5.69%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-06 18:55
Betway🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -8.40%E -2.90%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.67%EV -1.30%E -0.548%K -0.944%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.77%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.49%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-06 18:55
Sky Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -8.40%E -2.90%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -6.69%E -2.98%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -3.00%E -0.833%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-06 18:40
TAB🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -8.40%E -2.90%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -4.62%E -2.01%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-06 18:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -8.40%E -2.90%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -4.62%E -2.01%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-06 18:55
Neds🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -8.40%E -2.90%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -4.62%E -2.01%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-06 18:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -8.40%E -2.90%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -4.62%E -2.01%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-06 18:55
Winamax (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.90%EV -8.40%E -2.90%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.05%EV -8.77%E -3.99%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.06%EV -4.34%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-06 17:40
Paddy Power🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -8.40%E -2.90%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -6.69%E -2.98%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-06 18:40
Fliff🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -8.40%E -2.90%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.40%EV -8.77%E -3.99%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.19%EV -9.73%E -2.91%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-06 18:45
PlayUp🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.38%EV -9.98%E -3.50%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.48%EV -5.45%E -2.39%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.14%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-06 18:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -11.56%E -4.13%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -4.62%E -2.01%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -3.00%E -0.833%K -1.15%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-06 18:20
Bet Right🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.27%EV -11.56%E -4.13%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.50%EV -4.62%E -2.01%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.24%EV -4.34%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-06 18:20
BoyleSports🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -11.56%E -4.13%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -10.84%E -5.04%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.49%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-06 18:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 30.27%EV -11.56%E -4.13%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 42.38%EV -17.06%E -8.53%K -17.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.34%EV -16.47%E -5.31%K -7.84%G +0.000%18.0%2026-04-06 18:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -13.14%E -4.78%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -4.62%E -2.01%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -5.69%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-06 18:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.10I 32.26%NM 32.05%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.72%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%0.6%2026-04-06 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.10I 32.26%NM 32.05%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.72%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%0.6%2026-04-06 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.10I 32.26%NM 32.05%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.72%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%0.6%2026-04-06 18:55
Matchbook3.10I 32.26%NM 32.05%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.72%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%0.6%2026-04-06 18:55
Smarkets3.10I 32.26%NM 31.83%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.77%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.41%1.4%2026-04-06 18:55
Kalshi3.12I 32.05%NM 31.42%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.08%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.50%2.0%2026-04-06 18:55