La escuela de los momios

Girona v Villarreal

Inicio: 2026-04-06 19:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Girona (Local)

Predicción 31.59%3.17momio equitativo
EV +1.39%
Ventaja +0.433%
Kelly +0.629%
Crecimiento +0.009%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.21

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.24%31.60%31.62%33.54%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.752.993.003.2136.36%33.42%33.33%31.15%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Villarreal (Visitante)

Predicción 41.47%2.41momio equitativo
EV -1.30%
Ventaja -0.548%
Kelly -0.944%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.38

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
39.67%41.51%41.46%43.08%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.002.262.272.3850.00%44.19%43.96%42.02%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 26.95%3.71momio equitativo
EV -0.303%
Ventaja -0.082%
Kelly -0.112%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.74%26.89%26.92%27.77%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.503.503.7032.26%28.54%28.57%27.03%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet3.21I 31.15%NM 30.24%EV +1.39%E +0.433%K +0.629%G +0.009%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.95%EV -6.28%E -2.78%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.81%EV -2.46%E -0.679%K -0.938%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-06 18:55
ATG (SE)3.15I 31.75%NM 30.99%EV -0.505%E -0.160%K -0.235%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.90%EV -3.38%E -1.45%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.12%EV -3.00%E -0.833%K -1.15%G +0.000%2.4%2026-04-06 18:00
Unibet (SE)3.15I 31.75%NM 30.82%EV -0.505%E -0.160%K -0.235%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.21%EV -4.62%E -2.01%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.97%EV -3.00%E -0.833%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-06 18:05
Svenska Spel3.15I 31.75%NM 30.82%EV -0.505%E -0.160%K -0.235%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.21%EV -4.62%E -2.01%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.97%EV -3.00%E -0.833%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-06 18:00
Unibet (NL)3.15I 31.75%NM 30.71%EV -0.505%E -0.160%K -0.235%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.42%EV -5.45%E -2.39%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.87%EV -3.00%E -0.833%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-06 18:25
LowVig.ag3.15I 31.75%NM 30.63%EV -0.505%E -0.160%K -0.235%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.08%EV -7.11%E -3.17%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 26.29%EV -1.11%E -0.303%K -0.416%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-06 18:50
BetOnline.ag3.15I 31.75%NM 30.63%EV -0.505%E -0.160%K -0.235%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.08%EV -7.11%E -3.17%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 26.29%EV -1.11%E -0.303%K -0.416%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-06 18:50
Marathon Bet3.12I 32.05%NM 30.93%EV -1.45%E -0.466%K -0.685%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.96%EV -4.62%E -2.01%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 27.11%EV -4.08%E -1.14%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-06 18:50
Coolbet3.10I 32.26%NM 31.38%EV -2.08%E -0.672%K -0.993%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.22%EV -2.13%E -0.904%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.40%EV -4.34%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-06 18:19
Pinnacle3.10I 32.26%NM 31.37%EV -2.08%E -0.672%K -0.993%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.92%EV -3.79%E -1.63%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.72%EV -1.92%E -0.527%K -0.727%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-06 18:45
Grosvenor3.10I 32.26%NM 30.76%EV -2.08%E -0.672%K -0.993%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.38%EV -6.69%E -2.98%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.86%EV -4.34%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-06 18:25
Casumo3.10I 32.26%NM 30.76%EV -2.08%E -0.672%K -0.993%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.38%EV -6.69%E -2.98%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.86%EV -4.34%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-06 18:25
betPARX3.10I 32.26%NM 30.76%EV -2.08%E -0.672%K -0.993%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.38%EV -6.69%E -2.98%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.86%EV -4.34%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-06 18:25
Bally Bet3.10I 32.26%NM 30.76%EV -2.08%E -0.672%K -0.993%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.38%EV -6.69%E -2.98%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.86%EV -4.34%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-06 18:25
Tipico (DE)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -2.08%E -0.672%K -0.993%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -8.77%E -3.99%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -5.69%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-06 17:25
DraftKings3.05I 32.79%NM 31.39%EV -3.66%E -1.20%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.63%EV -4.62%E -2.01%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.97%EV -4.34%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-06 16:30
LeoVegas (SE)3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -3.66%E -1.20%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.22%EV -7.52%E -3.37%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -5.69%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-06 18:25
TABtouch3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -3.66%E -1.20%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.22%EV -7.52%E -3.37%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -5.69%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-06 18:25
Unibet3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -3.66%E -1.20%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.22%EV -7.52%E -3.37%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -5.69%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-06 18:25
BetRivers3.05I 32.79%NM 30.70%EV -3.66%E -1.20%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -8.77%E -3.99%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.75%EV -5.69%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-06 18:25
Codere (IT)3.00I 33.33%NM 31.69%EV -5.24%E -1.75%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 41.52%EV -5.04%E -2.20%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.78%EV -4.34%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-06 18:50
SportsBet3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -5.24%E -1.75%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.26%EV -4.62%E -2.01%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -5.69%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-06 18:40
FanDuel3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -5.24%E -1.75%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.26%EV -4.62%E -2.01%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -5.69%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-06 18:40
Bet Victor3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -5.24%E -1.75%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.26%EV -4.62%E -2.01%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -5.69%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-06 18:50
Everygame3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -5.24%E -1.75%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.26%EV -4.62%E -2.01%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -5.69%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-06 18:54
Bovada3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -5.24%E -1.75%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.73%EV -5.86%E -2.58%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.69%EV -4.34%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-06 18:53
Coral3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -5.24%E -1.75%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -4.62%E -2.01%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.49%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-06 16:30
Fanatics3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -5.24%E -1.75%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -4.62%E -2.01%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.49%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-06 16:55
Unibet (UK)3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -5.24%E -1.75%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -6.69%E -2.98%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.69%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-06 18:45
William Hill3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -5.24%E -1.75%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.69%E -2.98%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-06 18:55
PMU (FR)3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -5.24%E -1.75%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.18%EV -8.77%E -3.99%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.89%EV -7.04%E -2.04%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-06 18:00
Virgin Bet3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -5.24%E -1.75%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.51%EV -10.01%E -4.61%K -8.56%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.74%EV -7.04%E -2.04%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-06 18:24
LiveScore Bet3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -5.24%E -1.75%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.51%EV -10.01%E -4.61%K -8.56%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.74%EV -7.04%E -2.04%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-06 18:25
LeoVegas3.00I 33.33%NM 30.69%EV -5.24%E -1.75%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.23%EV -9.60%E -4.40%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-06 18:01
Betsson2.98I 33.56%NM 32.01%EV -5.87%E -1.97%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -3.79%E -1.63%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.87%EV -4.34%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-06 18:55
NordicBet2.98I 33.56%NM 32.01%EV -5.87%E -1.97%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -3.79%E -1.63%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.87%EV -4.34%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-06 18:55
BetUS2.96I 33.78%NM 32.08%EV -6.51%E -2.20%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 41.47%EV -5.04%E -2.20%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.45%EV -3.27%E -0.910%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-06 18:20
Winamax (DE)2.95I 33.90%NM 32.06%EV -6.82%E -2.31%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.03%EV -6.69%E -2.98%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.91%EV -1.65%E -0.452%K -0.623%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-06 18:35
Unibet (FR)2.95I 33.90%NM 31.41%EV -6.82%E -2.31%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.12%EV -8.77%E -3.99%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -5.69%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-06 18:50
Betclic (FR)2.92I 34.25%NM 31.87%EV -7.77%E -2.66%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.00%EV -5.86%E -2.58%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 27.13%EV -7.58%E -2.21%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-06 18:50
NetBet (FR)2.92I 34.25%NM 31.68%EV -7.77%E -2.66%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.11%EV -6.69%E -2.98%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-06 18:55
theScore Bet2.90I 34.48%NM 32.84%EV -8.40%E -2.90%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.41%EV -4.62%E -2.01%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.74%EV -0.303%E -0.082%K -0.112%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-06 18:25
BetMGM2.90I 34.48%NM 32.65%EV -8.40%E -2.90%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.29%EV -2.55%E -1.08%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.05%EV -5.69%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-06 18:55
Betway2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -8.40%E -2.90%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.67%EV -1.30%E -0.548%K -0.944%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.77%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.49%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-06 18:55
Sky Bet2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -8.40%E -2.90%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -6.69%E -2.98%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -3.00%E -0.833%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-06 18:40
TAB2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -8.40%E -2.90%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -4.62%E -2.01%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-06 18:55
Ladbrokes (UK)2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -8.40%E -2.90%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -4.62%E -2.01%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-06 18:55
Neds2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -8.40%E -2.90%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -4.62%E -2.01%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-06 18:55
Ladbrokes (AU)2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -8.40%E -2.90%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -4.62%E -2.01%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-06 18:55
Winamax (FR)2.90I 34.48%NM 31.90%EV -8.40%E -2.90%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.05%EV -8.77%E -3.99%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.06%EV -4.34%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-06 17:40
Paddy Power2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -8.40%E -2.90%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -6.69%E -2.98%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-06 18:40
Fliff2.90I 34.48%NM 31.41%EV -8.40%E -2.90%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.40%EV -8.77%E -3.99%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.19%EV -9.73%E -2.91%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-06 18:45
PlayUp2.85I 35.09%NM 32.38%EV -9.98%E -3.50%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.48%EV -5.45%E -2.39%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.14%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-06 18:55
Betr (AU)2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -11.56%E -4.13%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -4.62%E -2.01%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -3.00%E -0.833%K -1.15%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-06 18:20
Bet Right2.80I 35.71%NM 33.27%EV -11.56%E -4.13%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.50%EV -4.62%E -2.01%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.24%EV -4.34%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-06 18:20
BoyleSports2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -11.56%E -4.13%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -10.84%E -5.04%K -9.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -8.39%E -2.47%K -3.49%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-06 18:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.80I 35.71%NM 30.27%EV -11.56%E -4.13%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 42.38%EV -17.06%E -8.53%K -17.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.34%EV -16.47%E -5.31%K -7.84%G +0.000%18.0%2026-04-06 18:25
Mr Green (SE)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -13.14%E -4.78%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -4.62%E -2.01%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -5.69%E -1.63%K -2.28%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-06 18:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.10I 32.26%NM 32.05%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.72%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%0.6%2026-04-06 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.10I 32.26%NM 32.05%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.72%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%0.6%2026-04-06 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.10I 32.26%NM 32.05%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.72%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%0.6%2026-04-06 18:55
Matchbook3.10I 32.26%NM 32.05%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.72%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%0.6%2026-04-06 18:55
Smarkets3.10I 32.26%NM 31.83%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.77%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.41%1.4%2026-04-06 18:55
Kalshi3.12I 32.05%NM 31.42%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.08%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.50%2.0%2026-04-06 18:55