La escuela de los momios

Girona v Real Betis

Inicio: 2026-04-21 19:32 UTC

Final: Girona 2–3 Real Betis

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Girona (Local)

Predicción 39.26%2.55momio equitativo
EV -1.86%
Ventaja -0.743%
Kelly -1.24%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.41%39.27%39.28%40.12%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.302.412.402.5043.48%41.58%41.67%40.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Real Betis (Visitante)

Predicción 32.03%3.12momio equitativo
EV -0.696%
Ventaja -0.224%
Kelly -0.331%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.41%32.16%32.04%34.24%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.632.912.903.1038.02%34.35%34.48%32.26%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 28.71%3.48momio equitativo
EV +0.483%
Ventaja +0.138%
Kelly +0.193%
Crecimiento +0.001%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.42%28.57%28.68%29.88%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.883.313.323.5034.72%30.17%30.12%28.57%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
betPARX2.50I 40.00%NM 39.25%EV -1.86%E -0.743%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.71%EV -3.90%E -1.30%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.04%EV +0.483%E +0.138%K +0.193%G +0.001%1.9%2026-04-21 19:31
theScore Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 38.83%EV -3.82%E -1.56%K -2.63%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.98%EV -10.31%E -3.68%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV +0.483%E +0.138%K +0.193%G +0.001%5.1%2026-04-21 19:30
Winamax (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.34%EV -7.75%E -3.30%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -13.51%E -5.00%K -7.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV +0.483%E +0.138%K +0.193%G +0.001%8.2%2026-04-21 19:30
Unibet (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 39.58%EV -3.82%E -1.56%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.32%EV -3.90%E -1.30%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.10%EV -0.953%E -0.276%K -0.389%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-21 19:30
Unibet (NL)2.45I 40.82%NM 39.58%EV -3.82%E -1.56%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.32%EV -3.90%E -1.30%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.10%EV -0.953%E -0.276%K -0.389%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-21 19:30
Svenska Spel2.45I 40.82%NM 39.58%EV -3.82%E -1.56%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.32%EV -3.90%E -1.30%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.10%EV -0.953%E -0.276%K -0.389%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-21 19:30
ATG (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 39.58%EV -3.82%E -1.56%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.32%EV -3.90%E -1.30%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.10%EV -0.953%E -0.276%K -0.389%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-21 19:30
LowVig.ag2.45I 40.82%NM 39.41%EV -3.82%E -1.56%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.19%EV -3.90%E -1.30%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.40%EV -2.39%E -0.702%K -0.995%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-21 19:29
Bally Bet2.43I 41.15%NM 39.18%EV -4.61%E -1.90%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.83%EV -7.10%E -2.45%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.00%EV -2.39%E -0.702%K -0.995%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-21 19:31
BetMGM2.40I 41.67%NM 39.38%EV -5.78%E -2.41%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.82%EV -7.74%E -2.69%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.80%EV -2.39%E -0.702%K -0.995%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-21 19:30
Coral2.40I 41.67%NM 39.34%EV -5.78%E -2.41%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.90%EV -8.06%E -2.81%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.77%EV -2.39%E -0.702%K -0.995%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-21 19:30
Ladbrokes (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.34%EV -5.78%E -2.41%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.90%EV -8.06%E -2.81%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.77%EV -2.39%E -0.702%K -0.995%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-21 19:30
Betr (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -5.78%E -2.41%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -10.31%E -3.68%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -2.39%E -0.702%K -0.995%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-21 19:29
betfred_uk2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -5.78%E -2.41%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -10.31%E -3.68%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -2.39%E -0.702%K -0.995%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-21 19:28
Pinnacle2.47I 40.49%NM 39.38%EV -3.04%E -1.23%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.68%EV -1.66%E -0.540%K -0.800%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.95%EV -3.54%E -1.05%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-21 19:29
Coolbet2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -3.82%E -1.56%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.34%EV -0.696%E -0.224%K -0.331%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.00%EV -3.82%E -1.14%K -1.63%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-21 19:29
BetOnline.ag2.48I 40.32%NM 38.96%EV -2.64%E -1.07%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.20%EV -3.90%E -1.30%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.84%EV -3.82%E -1.14%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-21 19:30
Codere (IT)2.44I 40.98%NM 39.13%EV -4.21%E -1.73%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.37%EV -5.50%E -1.86%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.50%EV -3.82%E -1.14%K -1.63%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-21 19:30
Grosvenor2.40I 41.67%NM 39.31%EV -5.78%E -2.41%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.53%EV -7.10%E -2.45%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.16%EV -3.82%E -1.14%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-21 19:30
Casumo2.40I 41.67%NM 39.31%EV -5.78%E -2.41%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.53%EV -7.10%E -2.45%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.16%EV -3.82%E -1.14%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-21 19:30
Unibet2.38I 42.02%NM 39.42%EV -6.57%E -2.76%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.58%EV -7.74%E -2.69%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -3.82%E -1.14%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-21 19:29
TABtouch2.38I 42.02%NM 39.42%EV -6.57%E -2.76%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.58%EV -7.74%E -2.69%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -3.82%E -1.14%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-21 19:30
LeoVegas (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 39.42%EV -6.57%E -2.76%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.58%EV -7.74%E -2.69%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -3.82%E -1.14%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-21 19:30
Neds2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -5.78%E -2.41%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.91%EV -8.70%E -3.05%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.00%EV -3.82%E -1.14%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-21 19:29
Ladbrokes (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -5.78%E -2.41%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.91%EV -8.70%E -3.05%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.00%EV -3.82%E -1.14%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-21 19:29
BetRivers2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -7.75%E -3.30%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.64%EV -8.70%E -3.05%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.77%EV -3.82%E -1.14%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-21 19:22
1xBet2.46I 40.65%NM 39.44%EV -3.43%E -1.39%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.50%EV -1.34%E -0.434%K -0.643%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 29.05%EV -4.11%E -1.23%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-21 19:29
Betclic (FR)2.38I 42.02%NM 39.57%EV -6.57%E -2.76%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.14%EV -6.14%E -2.10%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.28%EV -4.40%E -1.32%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-21 19:28
Marathon Bet2.48I 40.32%NM 39.06%EV -2.64%E -1.07%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.76%EV -2.30%E -0.753%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.18%EV -4.69%E -1.41%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-21 19:29
BetUS2.43I 41.15%NM 39.30%EV -4.61%E -1.90%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 31.94%EV -4.22%E -1.41%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.76%EV -4.69%E -1.41%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-21 19:30
FanDuel2.40I 41.67%NM 39.36%EV -5.78%E -2.41%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.02%EV -5.50%E -1.86%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.62%EV -5.26%E -1.59%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-21 19:30
SportsBet2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -5.78%E -2.41%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -7.10%E -2.45%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -5.26%E -1.59%K -2.29%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-21 19:30
Sky Bet2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -5.78%E -2.41%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -7.10%E -2.45%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -5.26%E -1.59%K -2.29%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-21 19:30
Fanatics2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -5.78%E -2.41%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -7.10%E -2.45%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -5.26%E -1.59%K -2.29%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-21 19:30
DraftKings2.40I 41.67%NM 38.92%EV -5.78%E -2.41%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.77%EV -8.70%E -3.05%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -5.26%E -1.59%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-21 19:30
Unibet (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.64%EV -7.75%E -3.30%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -7.10%E -2.45%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -5.26%E -1.59%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-21 19:29
Bet Right2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -5.78%E -2.41%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -10.31%E -3.68%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -5.26%E -1.59%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-21 19:29
PMU (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.42%EV -7.75%E -3.30%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.51%EV -8.70%E -3.05%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.07%EV -5.26%E -1.59%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-21 19:30
Virgin Bet2.32I 43.10%NM 39.50%EV -8.92%E -3.85%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.73%EV -10.31%E -3.68%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.77%EV -5.26%E -1.59%K -2.29%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-21 19:30
Betsson2.48I 40.32%NM 38.53%EV -2.64%E -1.07%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.07%EV -4.54%E -1.52%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.40%EV -6.69%E -2.06%K -2.98%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-21 19:30
NordicBet2.48I 40.32%NM 38.53%EV -2.64%E -1.07%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.07%EV -4.54%E -1.52%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.40%EV -6.69%E -2.06%K -2.98%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-21 19:30
Everygame2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -3.82%E -1.56%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.77%EV -3.90%E -1.30%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.33%EV -6.69%E -2.06%K -2.98%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-21 19:29
Bovada2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20%EV -5.00%E -2.07%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.62%EV -3.90%E -1.30%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -6.69%E -2.06%K -2.98%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-21 19:29
Unibet (UK)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.69%EV -3.82%E -1.56%K -2.63%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.14%EV -5.50%E -1.86%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.17%EV -6.69%E -2.06%K -2.98%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-21 19:29
Bet Victor2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.78%E -2.41%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.52%EV -3.90%E -1.30%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.09%EV -6.69%E -2.06%K -2.98%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-21 19:29
LeoVegas2.33I 42.92%NM 39.23%EV -8.53%E -3.66%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.65%EV -10.31%E -3.68%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.12%EV -6.69%E -2.06%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-21 19:30
Tipico (DE)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.12%EV -7.75%E -3.30%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV -0.696%E -0.224%K -0.331%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -8.13%E -2.54%K -3.70%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-21 19:30
Betway2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -5.78%E -2.41%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -3.90%E -1.30%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -8.13%E -2.54%K -3.70%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-21 19:30
Paddy Power2.40I 41.67%NM 38.71%EV -5.78%E -2.41%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.26%EV -7.74%E -2.69%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.03%EV -8.13%E -2.54%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-21 19:30
PlayUp2.40I 41.67%NM 38.58%EV -5.78%E -2.41%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.49%EV -8.70%E -3.05%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.93%EV -8.13%E -2.54%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-21 19:30
NetBet (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.38%EV -7.75%E -3.30%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.70%EV -6.46%E -2.21%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -8.13%E -2.54%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-21 19:28
William Hill2.40I 41.67%NM 38.36%EV -5.78%E -2.41%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -10.31%E -3.68%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -8.13%E -2.54%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-21 19:30
Mr Green (SE)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.36%EV -5.78%E -2.41%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -10.31%E -3.68%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -8.13%E -2.54%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-21 19:29
BoyleSports2.30I 43.48%NM 39.72%EV -9.71%E -4.22%K -7.47%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -7.74%E -2.69%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -8.13%E -2.54%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-21 19:30
Fliff2.30I 43.48%NM 39.59%EV -9.71%E -4.22%K -7.47%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.95%EV -8.70%E -3.05%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -8.13%E -2.54%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-21 19:31
TAB2.40I 41.67%NM 38.62%EV -5.78%E -2.41%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.96%EV -7.10%E -2.45%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -9.57%E -3.04%K -4.45%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-21 19:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 37.41%EV -9.71%E -4.22%K -7.47%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 32.72%EV -15.75%E -5.99%K -9.66%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.88%EV -17.32%E -6.01%K -9.21%G +0.000%16.2%2026-04-21 19:30
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.58I 38.76%NM 38.55%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.61%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.83%0.5%2026-04-21 19:30
Matchbook2.58I 38.76%NM 38.55%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.61%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.83%0.5%2026-04-21 19:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.58I 38.76%NM 38.39%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.48%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.13%1.0%2026-04-21 19:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.58I 38.76%NM 38.39%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.48%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.13%1.0%2026-04-21 19:30
Smarkets2.56I 39.06%NM 38.37%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.74%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.89%1.8%2026-04-21 19:30
Kalshi2.50I 40.00%NM 39.22%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.36%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.42%2.0%2026-04-21 19:31