Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Espanyol v Atlético Madrid

2026-10-17 12:00 UTC — La Liga - Spain

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Espanyol (Local)

Prediction 22.38%4.47fair odd
EV -0.179%
Edge -0.040%
Kelly -0.052%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.40%22.38%22.34%23.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.164.104.4626.67%24.04%24.39%22.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Atlético Madrid (Visit)

Prediction 52.39%1.91fair odd
EV +0.057%
Edge +0.030%
Kelly +0.063%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.16%52.42%52.39%53.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.801.801.9158.82%55.69%55.56%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.23%3.96fair odd
EV -2.10%
Edge -0.540%
Kelly -0.728%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.51%25.20%25.28%26.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.693.703.8828.57%27.08%27.03%25.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Espanyol (Local): 22.38%; Atlético Madrid (Visit): 52.39%; Draw: 25.23%. For Atlético Madrid (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.909. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 1.910, producing a positive expected value of +0.057%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯4.32I 23.15%NM 22.80%EV -3.31%E -0.767%K -0.998%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 51.56%EV +0.057%E +0.030%K +0.063%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 25.65%EV -3.11%E -0.809%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.5%2026-09-23 15:15
Unibet (NL)🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 22.17%EV -2.64%E -0.607%K -0.788%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.12%EV -3.09%E -1.67%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.71%EV -5.38%E -1.43%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-11 17:49
Grosvenor🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 22.17%EV -2.64%E -0.607%K -0.788%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.12%EV -3.09%E -1.67%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.71%EV -5.38%E -1.43%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-11 17:49
Unibet (SE)🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 22.17%EV -2.64%E -0.607%K -0.788%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.12%EV -3.09%E -1.67%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.71%EV -5.38%E -1.43%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-11 17:50
Svenska Spel🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 22.17%EV -2.64%E -0.607%K -0.788%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.12%EV -3.09%E -1.67%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.71%EV -5.38%E -1.43%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-11 17:50
ATG (SE)🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 22.17%EV -2.64%E -0.607%K -0.788%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.12%EV -3.09%E -1.67%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.71%EV -5.38%E -1.43%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-11 17:49
Fanatics🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.31%EV -3.76%E -0.874%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.43%EV -4.13%E -2.26%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.25%EV -4.12%E -1.08%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-10 16:35
Hard Rock Bet🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.44%EV -4.88%E -1.15%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.12%EV -4.13%E -2.26%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.44%EV -5.38%E -1.43%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-11 17:49
Coral🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -6.00%E -1.43%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.98%EV -4.13%E -2.26%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.37%EV -5.38%E -1.43%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-11 10:30
SportsBet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.15%EV -8.24%E -2.01%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.87%EV -4.13%E -2.26%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.98%EV -4.12%E -1.08%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-21 14:54
BetMGM🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%EV -8.24%E -2.01%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.52%EV -4.13%E -2.26%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -6.64%E -1.79%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-11 10:30
Neds🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -10.47%E -2.62%K -3.49%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.23%EV -4.13%E -2.26%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -6.64%E -1.79%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-11 10:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -10.47%E -2.62%K -3.49%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.23%EV -4.13%E -2.26%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -6.64%E -1.79%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-11 10:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -10.47%E -2.62%K -3.49%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.23%EV -4.13%E -2.26%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -6.64%E -1.79%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-11 10:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.83%EV -8.24%E -2.01%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.16%EV -4.13%E -2.26%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.01%EV -9.16%E -2.54%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-10 17:35
Codere (IT)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.18%EV -3.76%E -0.874%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.39%EV -4.66%E -2.56%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.43%EV -5.38%E -1.43%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-11 15:14
BetRivers🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -4.88%E -1.15%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.08%EV -4.66%E -2.56%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.62%EV -6.64%E -1.79%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-11 17:50
Bally Bet🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -4.88%E -1.15%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.08%EV -4.66%E -2.56%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.62%EV -6.64%E -1.79%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-11 17:49
betPARX🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -4.88%E -1.15%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.08%EV -4.66%E -2.56%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.62%EV -6.64%E -1.79%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-11 17:50
Casumo🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -4.88%E -1.15%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.08%EV -4.66%E -2.56%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.62%EV -6.64%E -1.79%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-11 17:49
Pinnacle🎯4.46I 22.42%NM 21.68%EV -0.179%E -0.040%K -0.052%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 53.41%EV -5.18%E -2.86%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.92%EV -2.10%E -0.540%K -0.728%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-11 19:25
Betsson🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 21.78%EV -2.64%E -0.607%K -0.788%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.62%EV -5.71%E -3.17%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.60%EV -6.64%E -1.79%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-10 16:20
betfred_uk🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -6.00%E -1.43%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.40%EV -5.71%E -3.17%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -5.38%E -1.43%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-01 16:19
NordicBet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.90%EV -3.76%E -0.874%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.31%EV -5.71%E -3.17%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.80%EV -7.90%E -2.16%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-10 16:20
Betr (AU)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%EV -8.24%E -2.01%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.28%EV -5.71%E -3.17%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.77%EV -4.12%E -1.08%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-01 16:20
Unibet (UK)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -6.00%E -1.43%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.22%EV -5.71%E -3.17%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -6.64%E -1.79%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-11 15:15
DraftKings🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -6.00%E -1.43%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.22%EV -5.71%E -3.17%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -6.64%E -1.79%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-10 14:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -10.47%E -2.62%K -3.49%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -5.71%E -3.17%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -4.12%E -1.08%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-11 01:45
Sky Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -10.47%E -2.62%K -3.49%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.81%EV -5.71%E -3.17%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -5.38%E -1.43%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-21 14:50
Bet Right🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -10.47%E -2.62%K -3.49%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.64%EV -5.71%E -3.17%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -6.64%E -1.79%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-10 14:01
theScore Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -10.47%E -2.62%K -3.49%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.64%EV -5.71%E -3.17%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -6.64%E -1.79%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-11 13:29
Unibet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -8.24%E -2.01%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.57%EV -5.71%E -3.17%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -9.16%E -2.54%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-11 17:49
William Hill🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -10.47%E -2.62%K -3.49%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -5.71%E -3.17%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -9.16%E -2.54%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-10 16:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -10.47%E -2.62%K -3.49%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -5.71%E -3.17%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -9.16%E -2.54%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-10 16:15
LowVig.ag🎯4.36I 22.94%NM 21.82%EV -2.42%E -0.554%K -0.719%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.15%EV -6.23%E -3.48%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.03%EV -4.12%E -1.08%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-11 18:09
BetOnline.ag🎯4.36I 22.94%NM 21.82%EV -2.42%E -0.554%K -0.719%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.15%EV -6.23%E -3.48%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.03%EV -4.12%E -1.08%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-11 18:09
PMU (FR)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -8.24%E -2.01%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 51.52%EV -6.23%E -3.48%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -10.42%E -2.94%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-11 17:49
Bovada🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 21.79%EV -2.64%E -0.607%K -0.788%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.26%EV -6.75%E -3.79%K -8.66%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.95%EV -4.12%E -1.08%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-10 22:29
LiveScore Bet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -8.24%E -2.01%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.66%EV -6.75%E -3.79%K -8.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -10.42%E -2.94%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-11 17:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -8.24%E -2.01%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.66%EV -6.75%E -3.79%K -8.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -10.42%E -2.94%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-11 17:49
TABtouch🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -8.24%E -2.01%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.66%EV -6.75%E -3.79%K -8.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -10.42%E -2.94%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-11 17:50
FanDuel🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -8.24%E -2.01%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.70%EV -7.28%E -4.11%K -9.45%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -4.12%E -1.08%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-21 14:50
LeoVegas🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.60%EV -8.24%E -2.01%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.35%EV -7.28%E -4.11%K -9.45%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.04%EV -6.64%E -1.79%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-11 15:15
PlayUp🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -8.24%E -2.01%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.99%EV -7.28%E -4.11%K -9.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -9.16%E -2.54%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-10 16:15
Virgin Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.71%EV -10.47%E -2.62%K -3.49%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.33%EV -7.28%E -4.11%K -9.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -11.69%E -3.34%K -4.67%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-11 17:49
Winamax (DE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.04%EV -10.47%E -2.62%K -3.49%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.37%EV -7.80%E -4.43%K -10.26%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -5.38%E -1.43%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-10 17:20
Tipico (DE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%EV -1.52%E -0.346%K -0.448%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.81%EV -8.32%E -4.76%K -11.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -4.12%E -1.08%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-11 19:29
Betway🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -10.47%E -2.62%K -3.49%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.52%EV -8.32%E -4.76%K -11.10%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -5.38%E -1.43%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-10 17:05
Paddy Power🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -10.47%E -2.62%K -3.49%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.52%EV -8.32%E -4.76%K -11.10%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -5.38%E -1.43%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-21 14:49
TAB🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.54%EV -4.88%E -1.15%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.31%EV -8.32%E -4.76%K -11.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -11.69%E -3.34%K -4.67%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-10 20:50
Bet Victor🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.31%EV -8.24%E -2.01%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.28%EV -8.32%E -4.76%K -11.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.41%EV -9.16%E -2.54%K -3.52%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-11 00:10
betano_uk🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.31%EV -8.24%E -2.01%K -2.66%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.28%EV -8.32%E -4.76%K -11.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.41%EV -9.16%E -2.54%K -3.52%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-11 00:15
Everygame🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.84%EV -6.00%E -1.43%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.03%EV -9.37%E -5.42%K -12.84%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.13%EV -7.90%E -2.16%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-11 13:49
BoyleSports🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.61%EV -10.47%E -2.62%K -3.49%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.27%EV -9.37%E -5.42%K -12.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -9.16%E -2.54%K -3.52%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-10 16:25
Betclic (FR)🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.62%EV -4.88%E -1.15%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.42%EV -9.90%E -5.75%K -13.74%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 24.97%EV -7.14%E -1.94%K -2.67%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-11 15:13
NetBet (FR)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -10.47%E -2.62%K -3.49%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.34%EV -10.94%E -6.44%K -15.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -11.69%E -3.34%K -4.67%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-11 17:55
Winamax (FR)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.46%EV -16.07%E -4.29%K -5.84%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 51.75%EV -10.94%E -6.44%K -15.63%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.78%EV -10.42%E -2.94%K -4.09%G +0.000%13.7%2026-10-11 15:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎4.76I 21.01%NM 20.62%1.79I 55.87%NM 54.84%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.54%1.9%2026-10-11 17:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.60I 21.74%NM 21.18%1.82I 54.95%NM 53.52%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.30%2.7%2026-10-11 19:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.60I 21.74%NM 21.18%1.82I 54.95%NM 53.52%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.30%2.7%2026-10-11 19:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.60I 21.74%NM 21.18%1.82I 54.95%NM 53.52%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.30%2.7%2026-10-11 19:25
Matchbook◎4.60I 21.74%NM 21.18%1.82I 54.95%NM 53.52%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.30%2.7%2026-10-11 19:25
Smarkets◎4.50I 22.22%NM 21.41%1.81I 55.25%NM 53.23%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.36%3.8%2026-10-11 19:25