Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Espanyol v Atlético Madrid

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 12:01 UTC

Final: Espanyol 0–1 Atlético Madrid

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

59 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Espanyol (Local)

Prediction 18.85%5.30fair odd
EV +3.68%
Edge +0.669%
Kelly +0.818%
Growth +0.030%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.58%18.94%18.93%20.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.335.025.005.5023.09%19.94%20.00%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Atlético Madrid (Visit)

Prediction 57.12%1.75fair odd
EV -1.75%
Edge -1.02%
Kelly -2.43%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.39%57.01%57.11%58.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.651.651.7262.50%60.47%60.61%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.03%4.16fair odd
EV -0.770%
Edge -0.186%
Kelly -0.246%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.77%24.05%23.96%24.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.753.913.904.1326.67%25.60%25.64%24.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Espanyol (Local): 18.85%; Atlético Madrid (Visit): 57.12%; Draw: 24.03%. For Espanyol (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.30. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.68%.

Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.70%EV +3.68%E +0.669%K +0.818%G +0.030%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.96%EV -4.03%E -2.40%K -5.93%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.34%EV -3.89%E -0.973%K -1.30%G +0.000%2.7%2026-10-17 11:20
Svenska Spel🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.70%EV +3.68%E +0.669%K +0.818%G +0.030%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.96%EV -4.03%E -2.40%K -5.93%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.34%EV -3.89%E -0.973%K -1.30%G +0.000%2.7%2026-10-17 11:20
ATG (SE)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.70%EV +3.68%E +0.669%K +0.818%G +0.030%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.96%EV -4.03%E -2.40%K -5.93%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.34%EV -3.89%E -0.973%K -1.30%G +0.000%2.7%2026-10-17 11:20
Unibet (NL)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.58%EV +3.68%E +0.669%K +0.818%G +0.030%1.66I 60.24%NM 58.25%EV -5.18%E -3.12%K -7.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.17%EV -3.89%E -0.973%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-17 11:20
LowVig.ag🎯5.35I 18.69%NM 18.08%EV +0.852%E +0.159%K +0.196%G +0.002%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.92%EV -4.61%E -2.76%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.03I 24.81%NM 24.00%EV -3.17%E -0.787%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-17 10:59
BetOnline.ag🎯5.35I 18.69%NM 18.08%EV +0.852%E +0.159%K +0.196%G +0.002%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.92%EV -4.61%E -2.76%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.03I 24.81%NM 24.00%EV -3.17%E -0.787%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-17 11:00
Pinnacle🎯5.34I 18.73%NM 18.20%EV +0.664%E +0.124%K +0.153%G +0.001%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.86%EV -4.03%E -2.40%K -5.93%G +0.000%4.06I 24.63%NM 23.94%EV -2.45%E -0.604%K -0.801%G +0.000%2.9%2026-10-17 11:50
NordicBet🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.76%EV -0.090%E -0.017%K -0.021%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.10%EV -7.46%E -4.61%K -12.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -6.30%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-17 11:55
Tipico (DE)🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.76%EV -0.090%E -0.017%K -0.021%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.10%EV -7.46%E -4.61%K -12.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -6.30%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-17 11:50
Betsson🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.76%EV -0.090%E -0.017%K -0.021%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.10%EV -7.46%E -4.61%K -12.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -6.30%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-17 11:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.20%EV -1.03%E -0.197%K -0.243%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.91%EV -5.75%E -3.48%K -8.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.89%EV -3.89%E -0.973%K -1.30%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-17 11:20
SportsBet🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.15%EV -1.03%E -0.197%K -0.243%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.41%EV -5.18%E -3.12%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.44%EV -6.30%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-17 11:50
Everygame🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.09%EV -1.03%E -0.197%K -0.243%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.56%EV -5.75%E -3.48%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.35%EV -6.30%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-17 11:52
BetRivers🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.03%EV -1.03%E -0.197%K -0.243%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.71%EV -6.32%E -3.85%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -6.30%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-17 11:20
Bally Bet🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.03%EV -1.03%E -0.197%K -0.243%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.71%EV -6.32%E -3.85%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -6.30%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-17 11:20
betPARX🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.03%EV -1.03%E -0.197%K -0.243%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.71%EV -6.32%E -3.85%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -6.30%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-17 11:20
Casumo🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.03%EV -1.03%E -0.197%K -0.243%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.71%EV -6.32%E -3.85%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -6.30%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-17 11:20
Coolbet🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 18.67%EV -1.98%E -0.380%K -0.470%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.76%EV -2.32%E -1.36%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.57%EV -5.09%E -1.29%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-17 11:15
FanDuel🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 18.36%EV -1.98%E -0.380%K -0.470%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.16%EV -4.61%E -2.76%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.48%EV -6.30%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-17 11:25
Bovada🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 18.29%EV -1.98%E -0.380%K -0.470%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.64%EV -5.75%E -3.48%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.08%EV -5.09%E -1.29%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-17 11:55
LiveScore Bet🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.41%EV -3.86%E -0.757%K -0.942%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.89%EV -5.75%E -3.48%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%EV -8.70%E -2.29%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-17 11:20
Unibet🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.28%EV -3.86%E -0.757%K -0.942%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.19%EV -6.89%E -4.23%K -10.94%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -8.70%E -2.29%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-17 11:20
Grosvenor🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.28%EV -3.86%E -0.757%K -0.942%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.19%EV -6.89%E -4.23%K -10.94%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -8.70%E -2.29%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-17 11:20
1xBet🎯5.04I 19.84%NM 19.02%EV -4.99%E -0.990%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.76%EV -5.18%E -3.12%K -7.84%G +0.000%4.13I 24.21%NM 23.22%EV -0.770%E -0.186%K -0.246%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-17 11:50
betfred_uk🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 19.07%EV -5.75%E -1.15%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.09%EV -4.61%E -2.76%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -3.89%E -0.973%K -1.30%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-17 11:50
DraftKings🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 19.07%EV -5.75%E -1.15%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.09%EV -4.61%E -2.76%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -3.89%E -0.973%K -1.30%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-17 11:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -5.75%E -1.15%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.09%EV -3.46%E -2.05%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.95%EV -8.70%E -2.29%K -3.11%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-17 11:50
Fanatics🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -5.75%E -1.15%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.09%EV -3.46%E -2.05%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.95%EV -8.70%E -2.29%K -3.11%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-17 11:35
Betway🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94%EV -5.75%E -1.15%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.39%EV -5.75%E -3.48%K -8.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.67%EV -3.89%E -0.973%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-17 11:40
Unibet (UK)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94%EV -5.75%E -1.15%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.39%EV -5.75%E -3.48%K -8.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.67%EV -3.89%E -0.973%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-17 11:08
Bet Victor🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94%EV -5.75%E -1.15%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.39%EV -5.75%E -3.48%K -8.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.67%EV -3.89%E -0.973%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-17 11:54
betano_uk🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94%EV -5.75%E -1.15%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.39%EV -5.75%E -3.48%K -8.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.67%EV -3.89%E -0.973%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-17 11:50
Sky Bet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -5.75%E -1.15%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.84%EV -7.46%E -4.61%K -12.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -3.89%E -0.973%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-17 11:43
TAB🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -5.75%E -1.15%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.68%EV -5.75%E -3.48%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.61%EV -8.70%E -2.29%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-17 11:55
Virgin Bet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%EV -5.75%E -1.15%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.65%EV -6.32%E -3.85%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.77%EV -9.90%E -2.64%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-17 11:20
Paddy Power🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -5.75%E -1.15%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.13%EV -7.46%E -4.61%K -12.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.36%EV -8.70%E -2.29%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-17 11:24
PMU (FR)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -5.75%E -1.15%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.95%EV -7.46%E -4.61%K -12.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -9.90%E -2.64%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-17 11:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -5.75%E -1.15%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.95%EV -7.46%E -4.61%K -12.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -9.90%E -2.64%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-17 11:45
Betclic (FR)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -5.75%E -1.15%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.62%EV -8.60%E -5.38%K -14.34%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -7.50%E -1.95%K -2.63%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-17 11:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.39%EV -5.75%E -1.15%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.10%EV -8.03%E -4.99%K -13.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -9.90%E -2.64%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-17 11:20
TABtouch🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.39%EV -5.75%E -1.15%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.10%EV -8.03%E -4.99%K -13.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -9.90%E -2.64%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-17 11:20
Marathon Bet🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.77%EV -7.63%E -1.56%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 56.32%EV -1.75%E -1.02%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.92%EV -2.69%E -0.665%K -0.883%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-17 05:15
Codere (IT)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.45%EV -7.63%E -1.56%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.73%EV -4.03%E -2.40%K -5.93%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.82%EV -3.89%E -0.973%K -1.30%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-17 11:50
PlayUp🎯4.85I 20.62%NM 19.10%EV -8.57%E -1.77%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 56.84%EV -6.89%E -4.23%K -10.94%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.06%EV -7.50%E -1.95%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-17 11:55
William Hill🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.40%EV -9.52%E -1.98%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.76%EV -4.61%E -2.76%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -9.90%E -2.64%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-17 11:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.40%EV -9.52%E -1.98%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.76%EV -4.61%E -2.76%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -9.90%E -2.64%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-17 11:35
NetBet (FR)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -9.52%E -1.98%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.85%EV -8.03%E -4.99%K -13.17%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.09%EV -8.70%E -2.29%K -3.11%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-17 11:55
Fliff🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.01%EV -9.52%E -1.98%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.67%EV -8.03%E -4.99%K -13.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.33%EV -9.90%E -2.64%K -3.60%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-17 11:55
Betr (AU)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.94%EV -10.46%E -2.20%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.38%EV -4.03%E -2.40%K -5.93%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -3.89%E -0.973%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-17 11:50
BetMGM🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.89%EV -10.46%E -2.20%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.89%EV -3.46%E -2.05%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.22%EV -6.30%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-17 11:45
Neds🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -13.29%E -2.89%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.39%EV -2.89%E -1.70%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -6.30%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-17 11:50
Coral🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -13.29%E -2.89%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.39%EV -2.89%E -1.70%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -6.30%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-17 11:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -13.29%E -2.89%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.39%EV -2.89%E -1.70%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -6.30%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-17 11:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -13.29%E -2.89%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.39%EV -2.89%E -1.70%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -6.30%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-17 11:50
Winamax (DE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.30%EV -13.29%E -2.89%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.93%EV -6.32%E -3.85%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV -1.49%E -0.364%K -0.481%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-17 11:54
LeoVegas🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.20%EV -13.29%E -2.89%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.65%EV -4.61%E -2.76%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.14%EV -7.50%E -1.95%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-17 11:16
Bet Right🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -13.29%E -2.89%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.29%EV -5.75%E -3.48%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.51%EV -5.09%E -1.29%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-17 11:50
Winamax (FR)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.70%EV -17.06%E -3.88%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.23%EV -7.46%E -4.61%K -12.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.06%EV -5.09%E -1.29%K -1.73%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-17 11:45
BoyleSports🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 20.78%EV -18.38%E -4.24%K -5.52%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 55.54%EV -7.46%E -4.61%K -12.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.68%EV -8.70%E -2.29%K -3.11%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-17 09:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎5.70I 17.54%NM 17.53%1.72I 58.14%NM 58.10%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.37%0.1%2026-10-17 11:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎5.70I 17.54%NM 17.53%1.72I 58.14%NM 58.10%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.37%0.1%2026-10-17 11:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎5.70I 17.54%NM 17.47%1.71I 58.48%NM 58.24%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.29%0.4%2026-10-17 11:55
Smarkets◎5.60I 17.86%NM 17.73%1.71I 58.48%NM 58.06%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.21%0.7%2026-10-17 11:55
Kalshi◎5.56I 17.99%NM 17.78%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.51%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.71%1.1%2026-10-17 11:35