The School of Odds
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Elche CF v Barcelona

2026-08-23 19:30 UTC — La Liga - Spain

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Elche CF (Local)

Prediction 11.77%8.50fair odd
EV +11.79%
Edge +1.24%
Kelly +1.39%
Growth +0.163%

assuming max odds 9.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.05%11.72%11.83%13.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.257.918.009.5016.00%12.63%12.50%10.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Barcelona (Visit)

Prediction 71.18%1.40fair odd
EV -0.345%
Edge -0.246%
Kelly -0.862%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.81%71.27%71.00%73.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.311.301.4080.00%76.44%76.92%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 17.05%5.86fair odd
EV -1.11%
Edge -0.191%
Kelly -0.231%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.13%17.01%17.17%18.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.415.505.8020.00%18.47%18.18%17.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Elche CF (Local): 11.77%; Barcelona (Visit): 71.18%; Draw: 17.05%. For Elche CF (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.50. 7 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 9.50, producing a positive expected value of +11.79%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
SportsBet9.50I 10.53%NM 10.05%EV +11.79%E +1.24%K +1.39%G +0.163%1.30I 76.92%NM 73.48%EV -7.46%E -5.74%K -24.88%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.47%EV -1.11%E -0.191%K -0.231%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-02 11:04
1xBet8.50I 11.76%NM 11.61%EV +0.020%E +0.002%K +0.003%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 70.46%EV -0.345%E -0.246%K -0.862%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.94%EV -6.22%E -1.13%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.4%2026-08-02 11:04
Coolbet8.50I 11.76%NM 11.19%EV +0.020%E +0.002%K +0.003%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.52%EV -5.33%E -4.01%K -16.14%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -6.22%E -1.13%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-02 11:49
betfred_uk8.50I 11.76%NM 11.19%EV +0.020%E +0.002%K +0.003%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.52%EV -5.33%E -4.01%K -16.14%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -6.22%E -1.13%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-02 11:49
FanDuel8.50I 11.76%NM 11.01%EV +0.020%E +0.002%K +0.003%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.56%EV -8.17%E -6.34%K -28.19%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.42%EV -2.81%E -0.493%K -0.598%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-02 11:05
Sky Bet8.50I 11.76%NM 10.95%EV +0.020%E +0.002%K +0.003%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.13%EV -8.17%E -6.34%K -28.19%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -6.22%E -1.13%K -1.38%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-02 11:10
Paddy Power8.50I 11.76%NM 10.70%EV +0.020%E +0.002%K +0.003%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 72.76%EV -11.02%E -8.82%K -44.09%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.54%EV -6.22%E -1.13%K -1.38%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-02 11:10
Betr (AU)8.25I 12.12%NM 11.43%EV -2.92%E -0.354%K -0.403%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -6.04%E -4.58%K -18.87%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.14%EV -6.22%E -1.13%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-02 11:49
Codere (IT)8.00I 12.50%NM 11.91%EV -5.86%E -0.733%K -0.838%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.66%EV -5.33%E -4.01%K -16.14%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -1.11%E -0.191%K -0.231%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-02 13:54
William Hill7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -11.75%E -1.57%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.19%E -2.35%K -8.87%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -14.75%E -2.95%K -3.69%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-02 11:44
Mr Green (SE)7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -11.75%E -1.57%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.19%E -2.35%K -8.87%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -14.75%E -2.95%K -3.69%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-02 11:45
LeoVegas7.50I 13.33%NM 12.30%EV -11.75%E -1.57%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.94%EV -7.46%E -5.74%K -24.88%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.77%EV -6.22%E -1.13%K -1.38%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-02 13:54
Unibet (UK)7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -11.75%E -1.57%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.38%EV -7.46%E -5.74%K -24.88%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.43%EV -10.48%E -2.00%K -2.47%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-02 13:50
Unibet (FR)7.30I 13.70%NM 12.20%EV -14.10%E -1.93%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 70.68%EV -10.31%E -8.18%K -39.65%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.13%EV -11.34%E -2.18%K -2.70%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-02 13:49
Betclic (FR)7.25I 13.79%NM 12.30%EV -14.69%E -2.03%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 70.22%EV -9.60%E -7.56%K -35.55%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.48%EV -13.04%E -2.56%K -3.18%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-02 13:53
Winamax (DE)7.00I 14.29%NM 13.14%EV -17.63%E -2.52%K -2.94%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.73%EV -7.46%E -5.74%K -24.88%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.13%EV -2.81%E -0.493%K -0.598%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-02 13:50
Winamax (FR)6.25I 16.00%NM 13.79%EV -26.46%E -4.23%K -5.04%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 68.97%EV -11.02%E -8.82%K -44.09%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.24%EV -14.75%E -2.95%K -3.69%G +0.000%16.0%2026-08-02 13:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets6.40I 15.63%NM 13.37%1.25I 80.00%NM 68.43%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.20%16.9%2026-08-02 13:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.06I 94.34%NM 34.98%1.31I 76.34%NM 28.31%1.01I 99.01%NM 36.71%169.7%2026-08-02 12:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.06I 94.34%NM 34.98%1.31I 76.34%NM 28.31%1.01I 99.01%NM 36.71%169.7%2026-08-02 12:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.06I 94.34%NM 34.98%1.31I 76.34%NM 28.31%1.01I 99.01%NM 36.71%169.7%2026-08-02 12:20
Arbitrage (4 combinations) +0.81%SportsBet 9.50 (10.6%) / 1xBet 1.40 (72.0%) / SportsBet 5.80 (17.4%)Show all 4 combinations
Elche CF (Local)Barcelona (Visit)DrawMargin
SportsBet 9.50 (10.6%)1xBet 1.40 (72.0%)SportsBet 5.80 (17.4%)+0.810%
SportsBet 9.50 (10.6%)1xBet 1.40 (72.0%)Codere (IT) 5.80 (17.4%)+0.810%
SportsBet 9.50 (10.6%)1xBet 1.40 (71.8%)FanDuel 5.70 (17.6%)+0.504%
SportsBet 9.50 (10.6%)1xBet 1.40 (71.8%)Winamax (DE) 5.70 (17.6%)+0.504%