La escuela de los momios

Celta Vigo v Levante

Inicio: 2026-05-12 17:00 UTC

Final: Celta Vigo 2–3 Levante

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Celta Vigo (Local)

Predicción 49.86%2.01momio equitativo
EV -2.77%
Ventaja -1.42%
Kelly -2.92%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.95

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
48.06%49.96%49.80%52.25%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.801.881.901.9555.56%53.07%52.77%51.28%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Levante (Visitante)

Predicción 23.85%4.19momio equitativo
EV +4.92%
Ventaja +1.12%
Kelly +1.45%
Crecimiento +0.071%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.97%23.78%23.83%25.50%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.603.933.904.4027.78%25.45%25.64%22.73%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 26.29%3.80momio equitativo
EV -0.080%
Ventaja -0.021%
Kelly -0.029%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.98%26.26%26.38%27.91%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.613.623.8032.26%27.71%27.62%26.32%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Coolbet1.90I 52.63%NM 51.41%EV -5.27%E -2.77%K -5.85%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.20%EV +4.92%E +1.12%K +1.45%G +0.071%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.40%EV -2.71%E -0.732%K -1.00%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-12 16:50
LowVig.ag1.85I 54.05%NM 52.25%EV -7.76%E -4.19%K -9.13%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.97%EV +4.92%E +1.12%K +1.45%G +0.071%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.78%EV -1.39%E -0.372%K -0.507%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-12 16:50
BetOnline.ag1.85I 54.05%NM 52.25%EV -7.76%E -4.19%K -9.13%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.97%EV +4.92%E +1.12%K +1.45%G +0.071%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.78%EV -1.39%E -0.372%K -0.507%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-12 16:50
Pinnacle1.94I 51.55%NM 50.37%EV -3.27%E -1.69%K -3.48%G +0.000%4.29I 23.31%NM 22.78%EV +2.30%E +0.535%K +0.698%G +0.016%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.85%EV -4.29%E -1.18%K -1.62%G +0.000%2.3%2026-05-12 16:56
Marathon Bet1.93I 51.81%NM 50.19%EV -3.77%E -1.95%K -4.05%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.34%EV -1.04%E -0.251%K -0.331%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.47%EV -3.76%E -1.03%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-12 16:50
Bovada1.89I 52.91%NM 50.11%EV -5.76%E -3.05%K -6.48%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.82%EV -1.04%E -0.251%K -0.331%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -7.97%E -2.28%K -3.19%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-12 16:49
BetUS1.89I 52.91%NM 50.11%EV -5.76%E -3.05%K -6.48%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.82%EV -1.04%E -0.251%K -0.331%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -7.97%E -2.28%K -3.19%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-12 16:56
Unibet (NL)1.91I 52.36%NM 50.80%EV -4.77%E -2.50%K -5.24%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.67%EV -2.24%E -0.545%K -0.721%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.53%EV -0.080%E -0.021%K -0.029%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-12 16:50
1xBet1.91I 52.36%NM 50.77%EV -4.77%E -2.50%K -5.24%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.65%EV -2.24%E -0.545%K -0.721%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.58%EV -0.343%E -0.090%K -0.123%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-12 16:55
Everygame1.90I 52.63%NM 49.65%EV -5.27%E -2.77%K -5.85%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -2.24%E -0.545%K -0.721%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.34%EV -9.28%E -2.69%K -3.79%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-12 16:50
Tipico (DE)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.89%EV -7.76%E -4.19%K -9.13%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -2.24%E -0.545%K -0.721%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -5.34%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-12 16:45
FanDuel1.87I 53.48%NM 50.24%EV -6.76%E -3.62%K -7.77%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -2.24%E -0.545%K -0.721%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -7.97%E -2.28%K -3.19%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-12 16:36
ATG (SE)1.94I 51.55%NM 50.11%EV -3.27%E -1.69%K -3.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.30%EV -4.62%E -1.15%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.58%EV -0.080%E -0.021%K -0.029%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-12 16:30
Unibet (SE)1.92I 52.08%NM 50.37%EV -4.27%E -2.22%K -4.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.18%EV -4.62%E -1.15%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.45%EV -0.080%E -0.021%K -0.029%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-12 16:50
Svenska Spel1.92I 52.08%NM 50.37%EV -4.27%E -2.22%K -4.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.18%EV -4.62%E -1.15%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.45%EV -0.080%E -0.021%K -0.029%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-12 16:50
Fanatics1.91I 52.36%NM 49.80%EV -4.77%E -2.50%K -5.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78%EV -4.62%E -1.15%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -5.34%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-12 15:24
DraftKings1.91I 52.36%NM 49.80%EV -4.77%E -2.50%K -5.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78%EV -4.62%E -1.15%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -5.34%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-12 16:45
SportsBet1.90I 52.63%NM 49.56%EV -5.27%E -2.77%K -5.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -4.62%E -1.15%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -7.97%E -2.28%K -3.19%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-12 16:35
Sky Bet1.87I 53.48%NM 50.33%EV -6.76%E -3.62%K -7.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -4.62%E -1.15%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -5.34%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-12 16:35
Paddy Power1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -6.76%E -3.62%K -7.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -4.62%E -1.15%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -7.97%E -2.28%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-12 16:35
NordicBet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -2.77%E -1.42%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.16%EV -5.81%E -1.47%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.89%EV -6.65%E -1.87%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-12 16:26
Betsson1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -2.77%E -1.42%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.16%EV -5.81%E -1.47%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.89%EV -6.65%E -1.87%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-12 16:20
Codere (IT)1.91I 52.36%NM 49.83%EV -4.77%E -2.50%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.09%EV -5.81%E -1.47%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.08%EV -4.02%E -1.10%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-12 16:55
Casumo1.88I 53.19%NM 50.40%EV -6.26%E -3.33%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.99%EV -5.81%E -1.47%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.61%EV -2.71%E -0.732%K -1.00%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-12 16:50
Grosvenor1.88I 53.19%NM 50.40%EV -6.26%E -3.33%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.99%EV -5.81%E -1.47%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.61%EV -2.71%E -0.732%K -1.00%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-12 16:50
Bally Bet1.88I 53.19%NM 50.40%EV -6.26%E -3.33%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.99%EV -5.81%E -1.47%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.61%EV -2.71%E -0.732%K -1.00%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-12 16:50
betPARX1.88I 53.19%NM 50.40%EV -6.26%E -3.33%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.99%EV -5.81%E -1.47%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.61%EV -2.71%E -0.732%K -1.00%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-12 16:50
Coral1.91I 52.36%NM 49.85%EV -4.77%E -2.50%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.41%EV -7.00%E -1.80%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.73%EV -2.71%E -0.732%K -1.00%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-12 14:50
BetMGM1.91I 52.36%NM 49.85%EV -4.77%E -2.50%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.41%EV -7.00%E -1.80%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.73%EV -2.71%E -0.732%K -1.00%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-12 14:45
LeoVegas (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -7.76%E -4.19%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -7.00%E -1.80%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -2.71%E -0.732%K -1.00%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-12 16:50
Unibet1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -7.76%E -4.19%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -7.00%E -1.80%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -2.71%E -0.732%K -1.00%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-12 16:50
TABtouch1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -7.76%E -4.19%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -7.00%E -1.80%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -2.71%E -0.732%K -1.00%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-12 16:50
BetRivers1.85I 54.05%NM 50.47%EV -7.76%E -4.19%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.94%EV -7.00%E -1.80%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.58%EV -4.02%E -1.10%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-12 16:50
PMU (FR)1.83I 54.64%NM 50.75%EV -8.76%E -4.78%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -7.00%E -1.80%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.44%EV -4.02%E -1.10%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-12 16:31
William Hill1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -7.76%E -4.19%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -7.00%E -1.80%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.96%EV -10.60%E -3.12%K -4.42%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-12 16:50
Mr Green (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -7.76%E -4.19%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -7.00%E -1.80%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.96%EV -10.60%E -3.12%K -4.42%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-12 16:50
NetBet (FR)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -7.76%E -4.19%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -7.00%E -1.80%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.96%EV -10.60%E -3.12%K -4.42%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-12 16:40
LeoVegas1.82I 54.95%NM 50.55%EV -9.25%E -5.08%K -11.29%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.90%EV -8.20%E -2.13%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -5.34%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-12 16:30
Betclic (FR)1.92I 52.08%NM 49.15%EV -4.27%E -2.22%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 24.64%EV -8.67%E -2.26%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -5.34%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-12 16:53
Bet Victor1.91I 52.36%NM 49.70%EV -4.77%E -2.50%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.98%EV -9.39%E -2.47%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.32%EV -1.39%E -0.372%K -0.507%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-12 16:56
Ladbrokes (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 49.53%EV -4.77%E -2.50%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -9.39%E -2.47%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.57%EV -2.71%E -0.732%K -1.00%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-12 14:50
Betway1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -2.77%E -1.42%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -9.39%E -2.47%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -7.97%E -2.28%K -3.19%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-12 16:40
Winamax (DE)1.86I 53.76%NM 50.37%EV -7.26%E -3.90%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.65%EV -9.39%E -2.47%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.98%EV -1.39%E -0.372%K -0.507%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-12 16:55
TAB1.90I 52.63%NM 48.57%EV -5.27%E -2.77%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV -9.39%E -2.47%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.14%EV -10.60%E -3.12%K -4.42%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-12 16:50
BoyleSports1.83I 54.64%NM 49.51%EV -8.76%E -4.78%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.84%EV -9.39%E -2.47%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -10.60%E -3.12%K -4.42%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-12 16:30
Fliff1.80I 55.56%NM 50.30%EV -10.25%E -5.70%K -12.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.83%EV -9.39%E -2.47%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -7.97%E -2.28%K -3.19%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-12 16:56
betfred_uk1.91I 52.36%NM 49.54%EV -4.77%E -2.50%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.23%EV -10.58%E -2.82%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.23%EV -1.39%E -0.372%K -0.507%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-12 15:50
theScore Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 49.02%EV -4.77%E -2.50%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -10.58%E -2.82%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.01%EV -5.34%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-12 16:50
Neds1.90I 52.63%NM 49.15%EV -5.27%E -2.77%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.90%EV -10.58%E -2.82%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -5.34%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-12 14:45
Ladbrokes (AU)1.90I 52.63%NM 49.15%EV -5.27%E -2.77%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.90%EV -10.58%E -2.82%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -5.34%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-12 14:45
PlayUp1.91I 52.36%NM 48.28%EV -4.77%E -2.50%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -10.58%E -2.82%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -10.60%E -3.12%K -4.42%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-12 16:50
Betr (AU)1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -5.27%E -2.77%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -11.77%E -3.18%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -2.71%E -0.732%K -1.00%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-12 15:50
Winamax (FR)1.84I 54.35%NM 49.96%EV -8.26%E -4.49%K -9.83%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.85%EV -11.77%E -3.18%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.19%EV -4.02%E -1.10%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-12 16:55
LiveScore Bet1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -7.76%E -4.19%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -11.77%E -3.18%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -5.34%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-12 16:30
Virgin Bet1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -7.76%E -4.19%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -11.77%E -3.18%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -5.34%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-12 16:30
Unibet (FR)1.86I 53.76%NM 49.16%EV -7.26%E -3.90%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.71%EV -11.77%E -3.18%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -7.97%E -2.28%K -3.19%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-12 16:55
Bet Right1.90I 52.63%NM 48.99%EV -5.27%E -2.77%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.50%EV -12.97%E -3.55%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.50%EV -4.02%E -1.10%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-12 15:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 48.06%EV -10.25%E -5.70%K -12.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.03%EV -14.16%E -3.93%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.91%EV -18.49%E -5.96%K -8.80%G +0.000%15.6%2026-05-12 15:30
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.98I 50.51%NM 50.37%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.67%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.96%0.3%2026-05-12 16:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.98I 50.51%NM 50.37%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.67%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.96%0.3%2026-05-12 16:55
Matchbook1.98I 50.51%NM 50.19%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.59%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.23%0.6%2026-05-12 16:56
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.97I 50.76%NM 50.24%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.02%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.75%1.0%2026-05-12 16:56
Smarkets1.96I 51.02%NM 50.36%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.96%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.68%1.3%2026-05-12 16:56
Kalshi1.92I 52.08%NM 51.04%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.50%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.46%2.0%2026-05-12 16:55