Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Celta Vigo v CA Osasuna

Kickoff: 2026-08-27 18:30 UTC

Final: Celta Vigo 1–2 CA Osasuna

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Celta Vigo (Local)

Prediction 51.21%1.95fair odd
EV -1.16%
Edge -0.601%
Kelly -1.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.79%51.28%51.13%52.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.771.861.851.9356.50%53.91%54.05%51.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

CA Osasuna (Visit)

Prediction 20.28%4.93fair odd
EV +2.63%
Edge +0.520%
Kelly +0.649%
Growth +0.017%

assuming max odds 5.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.97%20.26%20.34%21.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.254.624.605.0623.53%21.63%21.74%19.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.50%3.51fair odd
EV -0.236%
Edge -0.067%
Kelly -0.094%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.33%28.46%28.53%29.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.313.303.5031.75%30.22%30.30%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Celta Vigo (Local): 51.21%; CA Osasuna (Visit): 20.28%; Draw: 28.50%. For CA Osasuna (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.93. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.06, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.63%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.77%EV -6.28%E -3.43%K -7.57%G +0.000%5.06I 19.76%NM 19.08%EV +2.63%E +0.520%K +0.649%G +0.017%3.43I 29.15%NM 28.15%EV -2.23%E -0.650%K -0.918%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-27 18:15
BetOnline.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.77%EV -6.28%E -3.43%K -7.57%G +0.000%5.06I 19.76%NM 19.08%EV +2.63%E +0.520%K +0.649%G +0.017%3.43I 29.15%NM 28.15%EV -2.23%E -0.650%K -0.918%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-27 18:20
Coolbet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 51.13%EV -2.70%E -1.42%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.43%EV +1.42%E +0.283%K +0.354%G +0.005%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.44%EV -5.94%E -1.80%K -2.58%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-27 18:25
betano_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -6.28%E -3.43%K -7.57%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.97%EV +1.42%E +0.283%K +0.354%G +0.005%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -7.36%E -2.27%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-27 18:14
Bet Victor🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -6.28%E -3.43%K -7.57%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.97%EV +1.42%E +0.283%K +0.354%G +0.005%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -7.36%E -2.27%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-27 18:20
Pinnacle🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.57%EV -3.72%E -1.98%K -4.23%G +0.000%4.91I 20.37%NM 19.75%EV -0.409%E -0.083%K -0.105%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.68%EV -3.66%E -1.08%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-27 18:26
Betsson🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.13%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.31%EV -0.612%E -0.125%K -0.157%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.56%EV -8.79%E -2.75%K -3.99%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-27 18:25
NordicBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.13%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.31%EV -0.612%E -0.125%K -0.157%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.56%EV -8.79%E -2.75%K -3.99%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-27 18:26
1xBet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 52.03%EV -4.74%E -2.55%K -5.52%G +0.000%4.84I 20.66%NM 20.00%EV -1.83%E -0.378%K -0.476%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.97%EV -1.38%E -0.398%K -0.559%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-27 18:20
BetUS🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 51.05%EV -2.70%E -1.42%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.83I 20.70%NM 20.08%EV -2.03%E -0.421%K -0.530%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.87%EV -4.23%E -1.26%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-27 18:25
SportsBet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.12%EV -4.23%E -2.26%K -4.86%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.91%EV -2.64%E -0.550%K -0.695%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.97%EV -5.94%E -1.80%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-27 18:20
FanDuel🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.12%EV -4.23%E -2.26%K -4.86%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.91%EV -2.64%E -0.550%K -0.695%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.97%EV -5.94%E -1.80%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-27 18:20
Coral🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.66%EV -6.28%E -3.43%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69%EV -2.64%E -0.550%K -0.695%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.65%EV -5.94%E -1.80%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-27 17:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.51%EV -7.82%E -4.34%K -9.77%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69%EV -2.64%E -0.550%K -0.695%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.80%EV -3.09%E -0.908%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-27 17:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 51.05%EV -2.70%E -1.42%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.42%EV -3.65%E -0.769%K -0.975%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.53%EV -3.09%E -0.908%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-27 18:26
Bovada🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.28%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.97%EV -3.65%E -0.769%K -0.975%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -5.94%E -1.80%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-27 18:25
Everygame🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.28%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.97%EV -3.65%E -0.769%K -0.975%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -5.94%E -1.80%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-27 18:22
BetMGM🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.55%EV -6.28%E -3.43%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.86%EV -3.65%E -0.769%K -0.975%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -5.94%E -1.80%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-27 17:55
TAB🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.82%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.79%EV -3.65%E -0.769%K -0.975%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.38%EV -8.79%E -2.75%K -3.99%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-27 18:24
Unibet (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.55%EV -1.16%E -0.601%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.76%EV -4.67%E -0.993%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.69%EV -3.09%E -0.908%K -1.29%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-27 17:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.55%EV -1.16%E -0.601%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.76%EV -4.67%E -0.993%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.69%EV -3.09%E -0.908%K -1.29%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-27 17:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.55%EV -1.16%E -0.601%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.76%EV -4.67%E -0.993%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.69%EV -3.09%E -0.908%K -1.29%G +0.000%2.5%2026-08-27 17:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.81%EV -2.18%E -1.14%K -2.40%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.65%EV -4.67%E -0.993%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.54%EV -3.09%E -0.908%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-27 17:55
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.12%EV -4.23%E -2.26%K -4.86%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -4.67%E -0.993%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.54%EV -4.51%E -1.35%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-27 18:20
Grosvenor🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.63%EV -3.21%E -1.70%K -3.60%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.80%EV -6.70%E -1.46%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.57%EV -4.51%E -1.35%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-27 17:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.03%EV -4.74%E -2.55%K -5.52%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.63%EV -6.70%E -1.46%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.33%EV -4.51%E -1.35%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-27 18:26
LeoVegas🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.95%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.49%EV -6.70%E -1.46%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -5.94%E -1.80%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-27 18:25
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.73%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -6.70%E -1.46%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.87%EV -7.36%E -2.27%K -3.27%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-27 18:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.73%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -6.70%E -1.46%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.87%EV -7.36%E -2.27%K -3.27%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-27 18:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.22%EV -6.28%E -3.43%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.38%EV -6.70%E -1.46%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.40%EV -5.94%E -1.80%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-27 17:55
Neds🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.22%EV -6.28%E -3.43%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.38%EV -6.70%E -1.46%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.40%EV -5.94%E -1.80%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-27 17:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.22%EV -6.28%E -3.43%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.38%EV -6.70%E -1.46%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.40%EV -5.94%E -1.80%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-27 17:55
PlayUp🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.54%EV -6.28%E -3.43%K -7.57%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.10%EV -6.70%E -1.46%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.36%EV -10.21%E -3.24%K -4.75%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-27 18:25
NetBet (FR)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.04%EV -7.31%E -4.04%K -9.02%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.08%EV -6.70%E -1.46%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.87%EV -8.79%E -2.75%K -3.99%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-27 18:26
Betclic (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.37%EV -6.79%E -3.73%K -8.28%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.55%EV -7.71%E -1.69%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.08%EV -5.08%E -1.53%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-27 18:24
theScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.29%EV -4.23%E -2.26%K -4.86%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.31%EV -8.73%E -1.94%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.40%EV -0.236%E -0.067%K -0.094%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-27 17:50
BetRivers🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.32%EV -3.72%E -1.98%K -4.23%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.02%EV -8.73%E -1.94%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.66%EV -5.94%E -1.80%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-27 17:55
Casumo🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.32%EV -3.72%E -1.98%K -4.23%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.02%EV -8.73%E -1.94%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.66%EV -5.94%E -1.80%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-27 17:55
betPARX🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.32%EV -3.72%E -1.98%K -4.23%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.02%EV -8.73%E -1.94%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.66%EV -5.94%E -1.80%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-27 17:55
Bally Bet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.32%EV -3.72%E -1.98%K -4.23%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.02%EV -8.73%E -1.94%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.66%EV -5.94%E -1.80%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-27 17:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.72%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -8.73%E -1.94%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -5.94%E -1.80%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-27 18:25
Betway🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.72%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -8.73%E -1.94%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -5.94%E -1.80%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-27 18:25
Paddy Power🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.27%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.67%EV -8.73%E -1.94%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -8.79%E -2.75%K -3.99%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-27 18:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.68%EV -8.84%E -4.97%K -11.34%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.44%EV -8.73%E -1.94%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -5.94%E -1.80%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-27 18:25
Fliff🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.14%EV -9.35%E -5.28%K -12.15%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.12%EV -8.73%E -1.94%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.74%EV -10.21%E -3.24%K -4.75%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-27 18:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.04%EV -5.77%E -3.14%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.34%EV -10.75%E -2.44%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.62%EV -3.09%E -0.908%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-27 18:25
Unibet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.26%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -10.75%E -2.44%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.61%EV -7.36%E -2.27%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-27 17:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.26%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -10.75%E -2.44%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.61%EV -7.36%E -2.27%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-27 17:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.00%EV -4.74%E -2.55%K -5.52%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.38%EV -11.77%E -2.71%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.62%EV -7.36%E -2.27%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-27 17:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.00%EV -4.74%E -2.55%K -5.52%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.38%EV -11.77%E -2.71%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.62%EV -7.36%E -2.27%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-27 17:55
betfred_uk🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.06%EV -2.70%E -1.42%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.97%EV -12.17%E -2.81%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -3.09%E -0.908%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-27 17:50
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.99%EV -7.82%E -4.34%K -9.77%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.20%EV -12.17%E -2.81%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -5.94%E -1.80%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-27 17:26
Betr (AU)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.25%EV -3.72%E -1.98%K -4.23%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.97%EV -12.78%E -2.97%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.78%EV -3.09%E -0.908%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-27 17:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.06%EV -6.79%E -3.73%K -8.28%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.61%EV -12.78%E -2.97%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -3.09%E -0.908%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-27 18:25
TABtouch🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.79%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.42%EV -12.78%E -2.97%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -8.79%E -2.75%K -3.99%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-27 17:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.79%EV -5.26%E -2.84%K -6.18%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.42%EV -12.78%E -2.97%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -8.79%E -2.75%K -3.99%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-27 17:55
Bet Right🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 49.97%EV -4.74%E -2.55%K -5.52%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -13.80%E -3.25%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.16%EV -5.94%E -1.80%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-27 17:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.96I 51.02%NM 50.80%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.91%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.29%0.4%2026-08-27 18:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.96I 51.02%NM 50.80%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.91%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.29%0.4%2026-08-27 18:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 50.93%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.86%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.21%0.7%2026-08-27 18:25
Matchbook1.95I 51.28%NM 50.93%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.86%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.21%0.7%2026-08-27 18:20
Smarkets1.94I 51.55%NM 51.06%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.81%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.13%1.0%2026-08-27 18:25
Kalshi1.89I 52.91%NM 51.42%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.42%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.17%2.9%2026-08-27 18:05