La escuela de los momios

Celta Vigo v Alavés

Inicio: 2026-03-22 15:15 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Celta Vigo (Local)

Predicción 47.94%2.09momio equitativo
EV -1.25%
Ventaja -0.608%
Kelly -1.18%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.06

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
46.48%47.99%47.93%49.06%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.871.981.972.0653.48%50.61%50.76%48.54%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Alavés (Visitante)

Predicción 22.34%4.48momio equitativo
EV +1.20%
Ventaja +0.265%
Kelly +0.340%
Crecimiento +0.004%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.53

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.42%22.41%22.40%24.46%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.804.204.204.5326.32%23.81%23.81%22.08%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 29.72%3.36momio equitativo
EV +1.06%
Ventaja +0.312%
Kelly +0.442%
Crecimiento +0.005%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.83%29.60%29.67%30.80%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.173.203.4033.33%31.53%31.25%29.41%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
Bet Victor1.93I 51.81%NM 49.06%EV -7.48%E -3.88%K -8.05%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%EV -8.41%E -2.05%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV +1.06%E +0.312%K +0.442%G +0.005%5.6%2026-03-22 13:19
theScore Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.52%EV -6.52%E -3.35%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -10.64%E -2.66%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV +1.06%E +0.312%K +0.442%G +0.005%5.7%2026-03-22 14:54
Tipico (DE)1.93I 51.81%NM 48.91%EV -7.48%E -3.88%K -8.05%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.48%EV -6.17%E -1.47%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.61%EV -1.91%E -0.579%K -0.831%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-22 14:30
Betr (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.83%EV -6.52%E -3.35%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -12.87%E -3.30%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -1.91%E -0.579%K -0.831%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-22 14:54
Bet Right1.95I 51.28%NM 47.68%EV -6.52%E -3.35%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.15%EV -13.99%E -3.63%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -1.91%E -0.579%K -0.831%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-22 14:59
Marathon Bet1.99I 50.25%NM 48.69%EV -4.61%E -2.32%K -4.65%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.77%EV -0.587%E -0.132%K -0.170%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.54%EV -2.51%E -0.764%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-22 14:59
Unibet (FR)1.96I 51.02%NM 48.18%EV -6.05%E -3.08%K -6.30%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -8.41%E -2.05%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.79%EV -2.51%E -0.764%K -1.10%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-22 14:59
1xBet2.05I 48.78%NM 48.00%EV -1.73%E -0.845%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.53I 22.08%NM 21.72%EV +1.20%E +0.265%K +0.340%G +0.004%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.28%EV -3.40%E -1.05%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.6%2026-03-22 14:39
Pinnacle2.02I 49.50%NM 48.13%EV -3.17%E -1.57%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.43I 22.57%NM 21.95%EV -1.03%E -0.233%K -0.301%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.92%EV -3.40%E -1.05%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.8%2026-03-22 14:44
LowVig.ag2.00I 50.00%NM 48.31%EV -4.13%E -2.06%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.96%EV -1.70%E -0.387%K -0.501%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.73%EV -3.40%E -1.05%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-22 14:24
BetOnline.ag2.00I 50.00%NM 48.31%EV -4.13%E -2.06%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.96%EV -1.70%E -0.387%K -0.501%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.73%EV -3.40%E -1.05%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-22 14:24
Betclic (FR)1.98I 50.51%NM 48.44%EV -5.09%E -2.57%K -5.19%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.05%EV -2.82%E -0.648%K -0.842%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.51%EV -3.40%E -1.05%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-22 14:39
Codere (IT)2.01I 49.75%NM 47.42%EV -3.65%E -1.82%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.25%EV -8.41%E -2.05%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.33%EV -3.40%E -1.05%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-22 14:59
NordicBet2.02I 49.50%NM 46.88%EV -3.17%E -1.57%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.98%EV -11.76%E -2.98%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.14%EV -3.40%E -1.05%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-22 14:39
Parions Sport (FR)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.90%EV -6.52%E -3.35%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -10.64%E -2.66%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -3.40%E -1.05%K -1.51%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-22 14:54
ATG (SE)2.06I 48.54%NM 47.58%EV -1.25%E -0.608%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.78%EV +0.530%E +0.118%K +0.152%G +0.001%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.63%EV -4.88%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.0%2026-03-22 14:30
Unibet (NL)2.02I 49.50%NM 48.07%EV -3.17%E -1.57%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.58%EV +0.530%E +0.118%K +0.152%G +0.001%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.35%EV -4.88%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-22 14:24
Unibet (SE)2.02I 49.50%NM 48.07%EV -3.17%E -1.57%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.58%EV +0.530%E +0.118%K +0.152%G +0.001%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.35%EV -4.88%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-22 14:24
Svenska Spel2.02I 49.50%NM 48.07%EV -3.17%E -1.57%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.58%EV +0.530%E +0.118%K +0.152%G +0.001%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.35%EV -4.88%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-22 14:30
Coolbet2.02I 49.50%NM 48.07%EV -3.17%E -1.57%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.58%EV +0.530%E +0.118%K +0.152%G +0.001%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.35%EV -4.88%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-22 14:40
DraftKings2.00I 50.00%NM 47.59%EV -4.13%E -2.06%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.66%EV -6.17%E -1.47%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -4.88%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-22 14:14
BetUS1.97I 50.76%NM 48.22%EV -5.57%E -2.83%K -5.74%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.09%EV -3.94%E -0.916%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.69%EV -4.88%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-22 14:59
Bovada1.96I 51.02%NM 48.35%EV -6.05%E -3.08%K -6.30%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.04%EV -3.94%E -0.916%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -4.88%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-22 15:00
Winamax (DE)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.33%EV -4.13%E -2.06%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%EV -8.41%E -2.05%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.58%EV -4.88%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-22 14:39
Coral2.00I 50.00%NM 47.06%EV -4.13%E -2.06%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -10.64%E -2.66%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -4.88%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-22 14:59
Ladbrokes (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.06%EV -4.13%E -2.06%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -10.64%E -2.66%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -4.88%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-22 15:00
Sky Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.22%EV -6.52%E -3.35%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV -6.17%E -1.47%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -4.88%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-22 14:15
William Hill2.00I 50.00%NM 46.48%EV -4.13%E -2.06%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -15.11%E -3.98%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -4.88%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-22 14:15
Mr Green (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.48%EV -4.13%E -2.06%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -15.11%E -3.98%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -4.88%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-22 14:54
Everygame2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.13%E -2.06%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.56%EV -6.17%E -1.47%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.08%EV -6.37%E -2.02%K -2.96%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-22 14:39
Neds2.00I 50.00%NM 46.84%EV -4.13%E -2.06%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -10.64%E -2.66%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV -6.37%E -2.02%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-22 14:54
Ladbrokes (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.84%EV -4.13%E -2.06%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -10.64%E -2.66%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV -6.37%E -2.02%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-22 14:54
Winamax (FR)1.98I 50.51%NM 47.09%EV -5.09%E -2.57%K -5.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -10.64%E -2.66%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.60%EV -6.37%E -2.02%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-22 14:54
PlayUp1.95I 51.28%NM 47.47%EV -6.52%E -3.35%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.14%EV -10.64%E -2.66%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.39%EV -6.37%E -2.02%K -2.96%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-22 14:59
TAB1.95I 51.28%NM 47.19%EV -6.52%E -3.35%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.60%EV -12.87%E -3.30%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -6.37%E -2.02%K -2.96%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-22 14:39
Fanatics2.00I 50.00%NM 47.39%EV -4.13%E -2.06%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.04%EV -3.94%E -0.916%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.57%EV -7.86%E -2.53%K -3.74%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-22 14:15
Grosvenor1.97I 50.76%NM 48.00%EV -5.57%E -2.83%K -5.74%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.49%EV -1.70%E -0.387%K -0.501%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.51%EV -7.86%E -2.53%K -3.74%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-22 14:24
Casumo1.97I 50.76%NM 48.00%EV -5.57%E -2.83%K -5.74%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.49%EV -1.70%E -0.387%K -0.501%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.51%EV -7.86%E -2.53%K -3.74%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-22 14:24
betPARX1.97I 50.76%NM 48.00%EV -5.57%E -2.83%K -5.74%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.49%EV -1.70%E -0.387%K -0.501%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.51%EV -7.86%E -2.53%K -3.74%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-22 14:30
Bally Bet1.97I 50.76%NM 48.00%EV -5.57%E -2.83%K -5.74%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.49%EV -1.70%E -0.387%K -0.501%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.51%EV -7.86%E -2.53%K -3.74%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-22 14:30
Betway2.00I 50.00%NM 47.14%EV -4.13%E -2.06%K -4.13%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.45%EV -6.17%E -1.47%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV -7.86%E -2.53%K -3.74%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-22 14:29
Unibet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.14%EV -6.52%E -3.35%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.58%EV -2.82%E -0.648%K -0.842%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -7.86%E -2.53%K -3.74%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-22 14:24
TABtouch1.95I 51.28%NM 48.14%EV -6.52%E -3.35%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.58%EV -2.82%E -0.648%K -0.842%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -7.86%E -2.53%K -3.74%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-22 14:24
LeoVegas (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.14%EV -6.52%E -3.35%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.58%EV -2.82%E -0.648%K -0.842%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -7.86%E -2.53%K -3.74%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-22 14:24
SportsBet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.09%EV -6.52%E -3.35%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.66%EV -3.27%E -0.755%K -0.981%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.25%EV -7.86%E -2.53%K -3.74%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-22 14:15
FanDuel1.95I 51.28%NM 48.02%EV -6.52%E -3.35%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.78%EV -3.94%E -0.916%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21%EV -7.86%E -2.53%K -3.74%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-22 14:15
PMU (FR)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -6.52%E -3.35%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -6.17%E -1.47%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -7.86%E -2.53%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-22 14:15
Paddy Power1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -6.52%E -3.35%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -6.17%E -1.47%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -7.86%E -2.53%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-22 14:15
BoyleSports1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -6.52%E -3.35%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -10.64%E -2.66%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -7.86%E -2.53%K -3.74%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-22 14:15
BetRivers1.94I 51.55%NM 48.03%EV -7.00%E -3.61%K -7.45%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.42%EV -2.82%E -0.648%K -0.842%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.55%EV -9.34%E -3.06%K -4.56%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-22 14:24
Fliff1.91I 52.36%NM 47.53%EV -8.44%E -4.42%K -9.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -10.64%E -2.66%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.77%EV -9.34%E -3.06%K -4.56%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-22 14:59
Virgin Bet1.98I 50.51%NM 46.67%EV -5.09%E -2.57%K -5.19%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.54%EV -8.41%E -2.05%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.80%EV -10.83%E -3.61%K -5.41%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-22 14:24
LiveScore Bet1.98I 50.51%NM 46.67%EV -5.09%E -2.57%K -5.19%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.54%EV -8.41%E -2.05%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.80%EV -10.83%E -3.61%K -5.41%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-22 14:24
LeoVegas1.92I 52.08%NM 47.81%EV -7.96%E -4.15%K -8.66%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.60%EV -5.05%E -1.19%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.60%EV -10.83%E -3.61%K -5.41%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-22 14:24
NetBet (FR)1.87I 53.48%NM 47.69%EV -10.36%E -5.54%K -11.91%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.58%EV -11.76%E -2.98%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -10.83%E -3.61%K -5.41%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-22 14:39
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.06I 48.54%NM 48.25%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.09%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.67%0.6%2026-03-22 14:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.06I 48.54%NM 48.25%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.09%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.67%0.6%2026-03-22 14:39
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.06I 48.54%NM 48.25%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.09%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.67%0.6%2026-03-22 14:40
Matchbook2.02I 49.50%NM 49.18%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.60%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.22%0.7%2026-03-22 15:00
Smarkets2.04I 49.02%NM 48.25%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.37%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.38%1.6%2026-03-22 15:00
Kalshi2.00I 50.00%NM 49.03%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.54%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.42%2.0%2026-03-22 15:00