La escuela de los momios

CA Osasuna v Espanyol

Inicio: 2026-05-17 17:00 UTC

Final: CA Osasuna 1–2 Espanyol

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

CA Osasuna (Local)

Predicción 44.10%2.27momio equitativo
EV -1.66%
Ventaja -0.744%
Kelly -1.35%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.23

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.15%44.14%44.13%44.98%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.002.132.152.2350.00%47.02%46.51%44.84%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Espanyol (Visitante)

Predicción 23.04%4.34momio equitativo
EV +5.98%
Ventaja +1.30%
Kelly +1.66%
Crecimiento +0.099%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.12%23.01%22.96%25.04%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.504.064.004.6028.57%24.63%25.00%21.74%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 32.86%3.04momio equitativo
EV -1.41%
Ventaja -0.470%
Kelly -0.705%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.87%32.85%32.91%34.71%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.702.872.883.0037.04%34.89%34.72%33.33%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Coolbet2.20I 45.45%NM 44.17%EV -2.98%E -1.36%K -2.49%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.12%EV +5.98%E +1.30%K +1.66%G +0.099%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.71%EV -7.98%E -2.85%K -4.44%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-16 21:05
BetOnline.ag2.18I 45.87%NM 44.33%EV -3.87%E -1.77%K -3.28%G +0.000%4.37I 22.88%NM 22.11%EV +0.677%E +0.155%K +0.201%G +0.001%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.56%EV -5.35%E -1.86%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-17 06:00
LowVig.ag2.18I 45.87%NM 44.33%EV -3.87%E -1.77%K -3.28%G +0.000%4.37I 22.88%NM 22.11%EV +0.677%E +0.155%K +0.201%G +0.001%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.56%EV -5.35%E -1.86%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-17 05:55
Unibet (NL)2.15I 46.51%NM 44.98%EV -5.19%E -2.41%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.23%EV +0.216%E +0.050%K +0.065%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.78%EV -3.05%E -1.04%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-16 23:16
Unibet (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 44.98%EV -5.19%E -2.41%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.23%EV +0.216%E +0.050%K +0.065%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.78%EV -3.05%E -1.04%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-16 23:15
Svenska Spel2.15I 46.51%NM 44.98%EV -5.19%E -2.41%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.23%EV +0.216%E +0.050%K +0.065%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.78%EV -3.05%E -1.04%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-16 23:15
ATG (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 44.98%EV -5.19%E -2.41%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.23%EV +0.216%E +0.050%K +0.065%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.78%EV -3.05%E -1.04%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-16 23:15
Pinnacle2.21I 45.25%NM 44.04%EV -2.54%E -1.15%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.63%EV -0.936%E -0.218%K -0.284%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.33%EV -4.04%E -1.38%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.8%2026-05-17 10:40
FanDuel2.10I 47.62%NM 44.68%EV -7.39%E -3.52%K -6.72%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -0.936%E -0.218%K -0.284%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.51%EV -7.98%E -2.85%K -4.44%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-17 07:16
1xBet2.23I 44.84%NM 44.11%EV -1.66%E -0.744%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.26I 23.47%NM 23.09%EV -1.86%E -0.436%K -0.570%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.79%EV -1.41%E -0.470%K -0.705%G +0.000%1.7%2026-05-17 10:40
Marathon Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 44.08%EV -2.98%E -1.36%K -2.49%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.82%EV -2.09%E -0.491%K -0.642%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 33.10%EV -3.71%E -1.27%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-17 10:40
Betclic (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 44.63%EV -5.19%E -2.41%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.85%EV -3.24%E -0.771%K -1.01%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.53%EV -3.05%E -1.04%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-17 10:31
BetUS2.15I 46.51%NM 44.38%EV -5.19%E -2.41%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.72%EV -3.24%E -0.771%K -1.01%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.90%EV -4.70%E -1.62%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-17 05:25
Everygame2.15I 46.51%NM 44.12%EV -5.19%E -2.41%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.59%EV -3.24%E -0.771%K -1.01%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.29%EV -6.34%E -2.22%K -3.43%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-17 10:39
Casumo2.12I 47.17%NM 44.63%EV -6.51%E -3.07%K -5.81%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%EV -3.24%E -0.771%K -1.01%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.85%EV -5.35%E -1.86%K -2.85%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-17 01:51
Grosvenor2.12I 47.17%NM 44.63%EV -6.51%E -3.07%K -5.81%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%EV -3.24%E -0.771%K -1.01%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.85%EV -5.35%E -1.86%K -2.85%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-17 01:50
betPARX2.12I 47.17%NM 44.63%EV -6.51%E -3.07%K -5.81%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%EV -3.24%E -0.771%K -1.01%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.85%EV -5.35%E -1.86%K -2.85%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-17 01:50
Bally Bet2.12I 47.17%NM 44.63%EV -6.51%E -3.07%K -5.81%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%EV -3.24%E -0.771%K -1.01%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.85%EV -5.35%E -1.86%K -2.85%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-17 01:50
Tipico (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.96%EV -7.39%E -3.52%K -6.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.48%EV -3.24%E -0.771%K -1.01%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -4.70%E -1.62%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 10:40
DraftKings2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -5.19%E -2.41%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.45%EV -3.24%E -0.771%K -1.01%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.68%EV -7.98%E -2.85%K -4.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-17 10:40
Sky Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 44.86%EV -7.39%E -3.52%K -6.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%EV -3.24%E -0.771%K -1.01%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -5.35%E -1.86%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-17 07:15
SportsBet2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -7.39%E -3.52%K -6.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -3.24%E -0.771%K -1.01%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -7.98%E -2.85%K -4.44%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-17 07:16
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62%NM 44.18%EV -7.39%E -3.52%K -6.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.09%EV -3.24%E -0.771%K -1.01%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -9.63%E -3.50%K -5.50%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-17 07:15
Bovada2.16I 46.30%NM 43.89%EV -4.75%E -2.20%K -4.09%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.84%EV -4.39%E -1.06%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -6.34%E -2.22%K -3.43%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-17 10:40
Codere (IT)2.15I 46.51%NM 44.14%EV -5.19%E -2.41%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.14%EV -5.54%E -1.35%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.72%EV -4.70%E -1.62%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-17 10:40
Fanatics2.15I 46.51%NM 43.88%EV -5.19%E -2.41%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -5.54%E -1.35%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -6.34%E -2.22%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-16 18:30
BetMGM2.15I 46.51%NM 43.88%EV -5.19%E -2.41%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV -7.85%E -1.96%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.53%EV -4.70%E -1.62%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-17 10:40
Coral2.15I 46.51%NM 43.88%EV -5.19%E -2.41%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV -7.85%E -1.96%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.53%EV -4.70%E -1.62%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-17 10:40
Betway2.15I 46.51%NM 43.88%EV -5.19%E -2.41%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV -7.85%E -1.96%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.53%EV -4.70%E -1.62%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-17 10:40
Bet Victor2.15I 46.51%NM 43.88%EV -5.19%E -2.41%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV -7.85%E -1.96%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.53%EV -4.70%E -1.62%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-17 10:39
Unibet (UK)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.78%EV -5.19%E -2.41%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -7.85%E -1.96%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.68%EV -5.35%E -1.86%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-17 10:40
Ladbrokes (UK)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.73%EV -5.19%E -2.41%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.51%EV -7.85%E -1.96%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.76%EV -5.68%E -1.98%K -3.04%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-17 10:39
Ladbrokes (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.63%EV -5.19%E -2.41%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -7.85%E -1.96%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.92%EV -6.34%E -2.22%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-17 10:39
Neds2.15I 46.51%NM 43.63%EV -5.19%E -2.41%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -7.85%E -1.96%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.92%EV -6.34%E -2.22%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-17 10:40
Winamax (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.46%EV -7.39%E -3.52%K -6.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -7.85%E -1.96%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.20%EV -4.70%E -1.62%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-17 10:39
TABtouch2.07I 48.31%NM 44.31%EV -8.72%E -4.21%K -8.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.93%EV -7.85%E -1.96%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.76%EV -7.98%E -2.85%K -4.44%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-17 01:50
Unibet2.07I 48.31%NM 44.31%EV -8.72%E -4.21%K -8.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.93%EV -7.85%E -1.96%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.76%EV -7.98%E -2.85%K -4.44%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-17 01:50
LeoVegas (SE)2.07I 48.31%NM 44.31%EV -8.72%E -4.21%K -8.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.93%EV -7.85%E -1.96%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.76%EV -7.98%E -2.85%K -4.44%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-17 01:51
NetBet (FR)2.07I 48.31%NM 44.05%EV -8.72%E -4.21%K -8.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.80%EV -7.85%E -1.96%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.16%EV -9.63%E -3.50%K -5.50%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-17 10:40
BetRivers2.05I 48.78%NM 44.29%EV -9.60%E -4.68%K -9.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -7.85%E -1.96%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -9.63%E -3.50%K -5.50%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-17 01:51
NordicBet2.22I 45.05%NM 42.87%EV -2.10%E -0.946%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.09%EV -9.00%E -2.28%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.04%EV -5.35%E -1.86%K -2.85%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-17 10:40
Betsson2.22I 45.05%NM 42.87%EV -2.10%E -0.946%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.09%EV -9.00%E -2.28%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.04%EV -5.35%E -1.86%K -2.85%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-17 10:40
Winamax (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.68%EV -9.60%E -4.68%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.19%EV -9.00%E -2.28%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.14%EV -6.34%E -2.22%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-17 10:40
PMU (FR)2.04I 49.02%NM 44.28%EV -10.04%E -4.92%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.87%EV -9.00%E -2.28%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.85%EV -9.63%E -3.50%K -5.50%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-16 23:16
LiveScore Bet2.04I 49.02%NM 44.01%EV -10.04%E -4.92%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.73%EV -9.00%E -2.28%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.25%EV -11.27%E -4.17%K -6.63%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-17 10:39
Virgin Bet2.04I 49.02%NM 44.01%EV -10.04%E -4.92%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.73%EV -9.00%E -2.28%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.25%EV -11.27%E -4.17%K -6.63%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-17 10:40
Unibet (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.70%EV -7.39%E -3.52%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -10.15%E -2.60%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -7.98%E -2.85%K -4.44%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-17 10:39
LeoVegas2.02I 49.50%NM 44.13%EV -10.92%E -5.41%K -10.71%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.86%EV -10.15%E -2.60%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.01%EV -11.27%E -4.17%K -6.63%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-17 01:50
theScore Bet2.15I 46.51%NM 43.81%EV -5.19%E -2.41%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -12.45%E -3.28%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -1.41%E -0.470%K -0.705%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-16 11:25
Betr (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.58%EV -5.19%E -2.41%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV -12.45%E -3.28%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.76%EV -3.05%E -1.04%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-17 05:36
TAB2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -2.98%E -1.36%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -12.45%E -3.28%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.23%EV -7.98%E -2.85%K -4.44%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-17 10:40
Bet Right2.10I 47.62%NM 44.16%EV -7.39%E -3.52%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.40%EV -12.45%E -3.28%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.44%EV -3.05%E -1.04%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-17 05:35
betfred_uk2.15I 46.51%NM 43.67%EV -5.19%E -2.41%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -13.61%E -3.63%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.30%EV -1.41%E -0.470%K -0.705%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-16 11:25
PlayUp2.20I 45.45%NM 42.15%EV -2.98%E -1.36%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.73%EV -13.61%E -3.63%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.12%EV -7.98%E -2.85%K -4.44%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-17 10:39
BoyleSports2.00I 50.00%NM 44.89%EV -11.80%E -5.90%K -11.80%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.94%EV -13.61%E -3.63%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.17%EV -5.35%E -1.86%K -2.85%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-17 10:39
William Hill2.10I 47.62%NM 44.10%EV -7.39%E -3.52%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -14.76%E -3.99%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.87%EV -1.41%E -0.470%K -0.705%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-17 10:39
Mr Green (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.10%EV -7.39%E -3.52%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -14.76%E -3.99%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.87%EV -1.41%E -0.470%K -0.705%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-17 10:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 43.75%EV -11.80%E -5.90%K -11.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.00%EV -19.37%E -5.53%K -7.75%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.25%EV -7.98%E -2.85%K -4.44%G +0.000%14.3%2026-05-17 07:05
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi2.22I 45.05%NM 45.03%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.97%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.99%0.0%2026-05-17 10:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.24I 44.64%NM 44.10%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.97%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.93%1.2%2026-05-17 10:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.24I 44.64%NM 44.10%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.97%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.93%1.2%2026-05-17 10:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.24I 44.64%NM 44.10%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.97%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.93%1.2%2026-05-17 10:40
Matchbook2.24I 44.64%NM 44.10%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.97%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.93%1.2%2026-05-17 10:40
Smarkets2.22I 45.05%NM 44.32%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.88%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.80%1.6%2026-05-17 10:40