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Barcelona v Rayo Vallecano

2026-08-31 19:30 UTC — La Liga - Spain

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Barcelona (Local)

Prediction 77.36%1.29fair odd
EV -2.53%
Edge -2.01%
Kelly -9.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.79%77.30%77.25%80.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.211.211.2685.47%82.59%82.64%79.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rayo Vallecano (Visit)

Prediction 8.16%12.25fair odd
EV +30.58%
Edge +1.91%
Kelly +2.04%
Growth +0.624%

assuming max odds 16.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.90%8.03%8.36%10.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.0011.9612.0016.0012.50%8.36%8.33%6.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 14.48%6.91fair odd
EV +8.61%
Edge +1.15%
Kelly +1.33%
Growth +0.114%

assuming max odds 7.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.61%14.67%14.39%17.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.256.246.507.5019.05%16.02%15.38%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Barcelona (Local): 77.36%; Rayo Vallecano (Visit): 8.16%; Draw: 14.48%. For Rayo Vallecano (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 12.25. 10 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 16.00, producing a positive expected value of +30.58%.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Betsson🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.12%EV -4.08%E -3.29%K -16.99%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.90%EV +30.58%E +1.91%K +2.04%G +0.624%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.98%EV -23.97%E -4.57%K -5.64%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-23 16:24
NordicBet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.12%EV -4.08%E -3.29%K -16.99%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.90%EV +30.58%E +1.91%K +2.04%G +0.624%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.98%EV -23.97%E -4.57%K -5.64%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-23 16:24
SportsBet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.72%EV -7.17%E -5.98%K -35.86%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.75%EV +14.26%E +1.02%K +1.10%G +0.156%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -5.87%E -0.903%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-23 16:44
PlayUp🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.78%EV -5.62%E -4.61%K -25.57%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.60%EV +14.26%E +1.02%K +1.10%G +0.156%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.61%EV -23.97%E -4.57%K -5.64%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-23 16:29
1xBet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 78.17%EV -2.53%E -2.01%K -9.73%G +0.000%13.40I 7.46%NM 7.35%EV +9.36%E +0.699%K +0.755%G +0.071%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.48%EV -1.52%E -0.224%K -0.263%G +0.000%1.5%2026-08-23 16:59
Marathon Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 78.21%EV -4.08%E -3.29%K -16.99%G +0.000%13.25I 7.55%NM 7.32%EV +8.14%E +0.614%K +0.664%G +0.054%6.70I 14.93%NM 14.47%EV -2.97%E -0.444%K -0.521%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-23 16:54
betfred_uk🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.03%EV -5.62%E -4.61%K -25.57%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.32%EV +6.10%E +0.469%K +0.508%G +0.031%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.65%EV -5.87%E -0.903%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-23 16:44
Tipico (DE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.12%EV -8.72%E -7.39%K -48.44%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.27%EV +6.10%E +0.469%K +0.508%G +0.031%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV +8.61%E +1.15%K +1.33%G +0.114%5.8%2026-08-23 17:49
Paddy Power🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 77.67%EV -8.72%E -7.39%K -48.44%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.05%EV +6.10%E +0.469%K +0.508%G +0.031%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -13.11%E -2.18%K -2.62%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-23 16:44
Betr (AU)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.80%EV -5.62%E -4.61%K -25.57%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.59%EV +2.02%E +0.161%K +0.175%G +0.004%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV -5.87%E -0.903%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-23 16:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.62%E -4.61%K -25.57%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV -2.06%E -0.172%K -0.188%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -13.11%E -2.18%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-23 16:59
William Hill🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.62%E -4.61%K -25.57%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.79%EV -2.06%E -0.172%K -0.188%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -13.11%E -2.18%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-23 16:59
Bet Right🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.84%EV -7.17%E -5.98%K -35.86%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV -2.06%E -0.172%K -0.188%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -5.87%E -0.903%K -1.07%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-23 16:44
Sky Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.40%EV -7.17%E -5.98%K -35.86%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.74%EV -2.06%E -0.172%K -0.188%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -9.49%E -1.52%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-23 16:44
FanDuel🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.13%EV -8.72%E -7.39%K -48.44%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.68%EV -2.06%E -0.172%K -0.188%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV -5.87%E -0.903%K -1.07%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-23 16:44
Pinnacle🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.90%EV -6.40%E -5.29%K -30.47%G +0.000%11.42I 8.76%NM 8.25%EV -6.80%E -0.595%K -0.652%G +0.000%6.81I 14.68%NM 13.84%EV -1.38%E -0.202%K -0.237%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-23 17:05
Codere (IT)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.89%EV -4.08%E -3.29%K -16.99%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.67%EV -10.22%E -0.929%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.45%EV -4.42%E -0.670%K -0.789%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-23 16:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.94%EV -4.85%E -3.94%K -21.09%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -10.22%E -0.929%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -13.11%E -2.18%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-23 16:35
BoyleSports🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.30%EV -7.17%E -5.98%K -35.86%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -10.22%E -0.929%K -1.02%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -5.87%E -0.903%K -1.07%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-23 16:34
Betway🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.65%EV -7.17%E -5.98%K -35.86%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.20%EV -18.39%E -1.84%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.15%EV -5.87%E -0.903%K -1.07%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-23 16:49
LeoVegas🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.22%EV -7.17%E -5.98%K -35.86%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.15%EV -18.39%E -1.84%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.63%EV -9.49%E -1.52%K -1.81%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-23 16:54
Betclic (FR)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.76%EV -7.17%E -5.98%K -35.86%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -18.39%E -1.84%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.15%EV -13.11%E -2.18%K -2.62%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-23 16:34
Unibet (FR)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 75.16%EV -7.95%E -6.68%K -41.82%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.42%EV -22.47%E -2.36%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.42%EV -16.01%E -2.76%K -3.33%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-23 16:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.72%EV -6.40%E -5.29%K -30.47%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.18%EV -26.55%E -2.95%K -3.32%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.10%EV -5.87%E -0.903%K -1.07%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-23 16:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 73.79%EV -9.49%E -8.11%K -55.84%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 10.79%EV -34.71%E -4.34%K -4.96%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.42%EV -18.90%E -3.38%K -4.11%G +0.000%15.8%2026-08-23 16:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.23I 81.30%NM 78.70%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.74%7.14I 14.01%NM 13.56%3.3%2026-08-23 18:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.22I 81.97%NM 79.28%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.91%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.82%3.4%2026-08-23 17:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.22I 81.97%NM 79.28%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.91%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.82%3.4%2026-08-23 17:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.22I 81.97%NM 79.28%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.91%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.82%3.4%2026-08-23 17:05
Smarkets◎1.21I 82.64%NM 78.89%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.07%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.04%4.8%2026-08-23 17:25
Arbitrage (4 combinations) +1.06%1xBet 1.26 (80.2%) / Betsson 16.00 (6.3%) / Tipico (DE) 7.50 (13.5%)Show all 4 combinations
Barcelona (Local)Rayo Vallecano (Visit)DrawMargin
1xBet🎯 1.26 (80.2%)Betsson🎯 16.00 (6.3%)Tipico (DE)🎯 7.50 (13.5%)+1.06%
1xBet🎯 1.26 (80.2%)NordicBet🎯 16.00 (6.3%)Tipico (DE)🎯 7.50 (13.5%)+1.06%
1xBet🎯 1.26 (79.5%)SportsBet🎯 14.00 (7.2%)Tipico (DE)🎯 7.50 (13.4%)+0.159%
1xBet🎯 1.26 (79.5%)PlayUp🎯 14.00 (7.2%)Tipico (DE)🎯 7.50 (13.4%)+0.159%