Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atlético Madrid v Villarreal

Kickoff: 2026-08-23 15:00 UTC

Final: Atlético Madrid 2–2 Villarreal

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atlético Madrid (Local)

Prediction 52.84%1.89fair odd
EV -2.77%
Edge -1.51%
Kelly -3.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.64%52.83%52.86%54.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.711.791.801.8458.48%55.88%55.56%54.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Villarreal (Visit)

Prediction 22.53%4.44fair odd
EV +1.37%
Edge +0.304%
Kelly +0.391%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.03%22.52%22.53%23.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.174.204.5026.32%23.96%23.81%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.63%4.06fair odd
EV -1.47%
Edge -0.368%
Kelly -0.491%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.68%24.65%24.61%26.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.823.814.0027.78%26.18%26.25%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atlético Madrid (Local): 52.84%; Villarreal (Visit): 22.53%; Draw: 24.63%. For Villarreal (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.44. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.37%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Bet Victor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.07%EV -7.53%E -4.30%K -10.04%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.03%EV +1.37%E +0.304%K +0.391%G +0.005%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -6.40%E -1.68%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-23 14:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.69%EV -4.88%E -2.71%K -6.11%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.72%EV +0.241%E +0.054%K +0.070%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.59%EV -3.20%E -0.813%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-23 14:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.69%EV -4.88%E -2.71%K -6.11%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.72%EV +0.241%E +0.054%K +0.070%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.59%EV -3.20%E -0.813%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-23 14:45
Pinnacle🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 53.36%EV -3.83%E -2.10%K -4.67%G +0.000%4.44I 22.52%NM 21.87%EV +0.016%E +0.004%K +0.005%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.77%EV -3.44%E -0.878%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-23 14:45
1xBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.81%EV -4.88%E -2.71%K -6.11%G +0.000%4.42I 22.62%NM 21.91%EV -0.435%E -0.098%K -0.127%G +0.000%3.99I 25.06%NM 24.28%EV -1.72%E -0.431%K -0.575%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-23 14:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 53.25%EV -3.83%E -2.10%K -4.67%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.03%EV -0.885%E -0.201%K -0.260%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.72%EV -3.44%E -0.878%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-23 14:55
FanDuel🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.11%EV -4.88%E -2.71%K -6.11%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.73%EV -0.885%E -0.201%K -0.260%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.16%EV -6.40%E -1.68%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-23 14:15
betano_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.94%EV -4.88%E -2.71%K -6.11%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.66%EV -0.885%E -0.201%K -0.260%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.41%EV -7.63%E -2.03%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-23 14:44
Unibet (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 53.08%EV -3.30%E -1.80%K -3.98%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.33%EV -2.01%E -0.462%K -0.600%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.59%EV -2.70%E -0.684%K -0.916%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-23 14:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 53.08%EV -3.30%E -1.80%K -3.98%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.33%EV -2.01%E -0.462%K -0.600%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.59%EV -2.70%E -0.684%K -0.916%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-23 14:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 53.08%EV -3.30%E -1.80%K -3.98%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.33%EV -2.01%E -0.462%K -0.600%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.59%EV -2.70%E -0.684%K -0.916%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-23 14:45
Coolbet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 52.78%EV -2.77%E -1.51%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.32%EV -2.01%E -0.462%K -0.600%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.90%EV -3.94%E -1.01%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-23 14:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 53.22%EV -3.83%E -2.10%K -4.67%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.26%EV -2.01%E -0.462%K -0.600%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.52%EV -2.70%E -0.684%K -0.916%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-23 14:45
Everygame🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.75%EV -4.88%E -2.71%K -6.11%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.93%EV -2.46%E -0.569%K -0.739%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.32%EV -7.63%E -2.03%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-23 14:33
Grosvenor🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.05%EV -4.36%E -2.41%K -5.38%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.33%EV -3.14%E -0.730%K -0.951%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.62%EV -3.94%E -1.01%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-23 14:45
DraftKings🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.19%EV -4.88%E -2.71%K -6.11%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.26%EV -3.14%E -0.730%K -0.951%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.55%EV -3.94%E -1.01%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-23 14:10
SportsBet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.98%EV -5.41%E -3.02%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.06%EV -3.14%E -0.730%K -0.951%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.96%EV -6.40%E -1.68%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-23 14:15
Bovada🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.12%EV -5.94%E -3.34%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.99%EV -3.14%E -0.730%K -0.951%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.88%EV -6.40%E -1.68%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-23 14:38
Tipico (DE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.89%EV -7.53%E -4.30%K -10.04%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.93%EV -3.14%E -0.730%K -0.951%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.18%EV -3.94%E -1.01%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-23 14:15
BetUS🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.78%EV -4.88%E -2.71%K -6.11%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.35%EV -4.26%E -1.00%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.87%EV -5.91%E -1.55%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-23 14:20
NordicBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.71%EV -3.83%E -2.10%K -4.67%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -4.26%E -1.00%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -11.32%E -3.15%K -4.36%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-23 14:35
Betsson🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.71%EV -3.83%E -2.10%K -4.67%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -4.26%E -1.00%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -11.32%E -3.15%K -4.36%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-23 14:35
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.23%EV -4.88%E -2.71%K -6.11%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.81%EV -5.39%E -1.28%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -1.47%E -0.368%K -0.491%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-23 14:05
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.91%EV -4.88%E -2.71%K -6.11%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.67%EV -5.39%E -1.28%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -3.94%E -1.01%K -1.36%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-23 14:10
BetRivers🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.88%EV -5.41%E -3.02%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.54%EV -5.39%E -1.28%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.59%EV -5.17%E -1.34%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-23 14:45
Casumo🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.88%EV -5.41%E -3.02%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.54%EV -5.39%E -1.28%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.59%EV -5.17%E -1.34%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-23 14:45
Bally Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.88%EV -5.41%E -3.02%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.54%EV -5.39%E -1.28%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.59%EV -5.17%E -1.34%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-23 14:44
betPARX🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.88%EV -5.41%E -3.02%K -6.85%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.54%EV -5.39%E -1.28%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.59%EV -5.17%E -1.34%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-23 14:45
Sky Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.27%EV -7.53%E -4.30%K -10.04%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -5.39%E -1.28%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -6.40%E -1.68%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-23 14:15
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.92%EV -7.53%E -4.30%K -10.04%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.05%EV -5.39%E -1.28%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -8.86%E -2.39%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-23 14:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.84%EV -8.58%E -4.96%K -11.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -5.39%E -1.28%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -11.32%E -3.15%K -4.36%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-23 14:45
Codere (IT)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.04%EV -3.30%E -1.80%K -3.98%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.23%EV -7.64%E -1.86%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.74%EV -5.17%E -1.34%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-23 14:55
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.03%EV -6.47%E -3.66%K -8.40%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -7.64%E -1.86%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -3.94%E -1.01%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-23 14:10
PMU (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.39%EV -5.94%E -3.34%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -7.64%E -1.86%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -7.63%E -2.03%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-23 14:45
Unibet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.39%EV -5.94%E -3.34%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -7.64%E -1.86%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -7.63%E -2.03%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-23 14:45
PlayUp🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.35%EV -6.47%E -3.66%K -8.40%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.60%EV -7.64%E -1.86%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.04%EV -8.86%E -2.39%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-23 14:35
NetBet (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.81%EV -7.53%E -4.30%K -10.04%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.54%EV -7.64%E -1.86%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.65%EV -7.63%E -2.03%K -2.77%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-23 14:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.96%EV -4.88%E -2.71%K -6.11%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.09%EV -8.77%E -2.17%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.94%EV -7.63%E -2.03%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-23 14:54
Fliff🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.07%EV -9.64%E -5.64%K -13.58%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.41%EV -8.77%E -2.17%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.53%EV -8.86%E -2.39%K -3.28%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-23 14:45
betfred_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.88%E -2.71%K -6.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -9.90%E -2.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -1.47%E -0.368%K -0.491%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-23 14:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.31%EV -4.88%E -2.71%K -6.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -9.90%E -2.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -3.94%E -1.01%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-23 14:05
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.31%EV -4.88%E -2.71%K -6.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -9.90%E -2.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -3.94%E -1.01%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-23 14:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.31%EV -4.88%E -2.71%K -6.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -9.90%E -2.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -3.94%E -1.01%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-23 14:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.31%EV -4.88%E -2.71%K -6.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -9.90%E -2.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -3.94%E -1.01%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-23 14:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.59%EV -5.94%E -3.34%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -9.90%E -2.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -3.94%E -1.01%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-23 14:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -4.88%E -2.71%K -6.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -9.90%E -2.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -6.40%E -1.68%K -2.29%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-23 14:55
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -4.88%E -2.71%K -6.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -9.90%E -2.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -6.40%E -1.68%K -2.29%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-23 14:40
LeoVegas🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.81%EV -4.88%E -2.71%K -6.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -9.90%E -2.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -7.63%E -2.03%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-23 14:55
Bet Right🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.26%EV -5.94%E -3.34%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -9.90%E -2.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -6.40%E -1.68%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-23 14:05
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.64%EV -4.88%E -2.71%K -6.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -9.90%E -2.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -8.86%E -2.39%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-23 14:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.64%EV -4.88%E -2.71%K -6.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -9.90%E -2.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -8.86%E -2.39%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-23 14:55
TAB🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.64%EV -4.88%E -2.71%K -6.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -9.90%E -2.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -8.86%E -2.39%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-23 14:47
Winamax (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.71%EV -7.00%E -3.98%K -9.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -9.90%E -2.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -5.17%E -1.34%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-23 14:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.06%EV -6.47%E -3.66%K -8.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.04%EV -9.90%E -2.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -8.86%E -2.39%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-23 14:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.06%EV -6.47%E -3.66%K -8.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.04%EV -9.90%E -2.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -8.86%E -2.39%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-23 14:45
TABtouch🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.20%EV -7.00%E -3.98%K -9.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -9.90%E -2.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -8.86%E -2.39%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-23 14:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.20%EV -7.00%E -3.98%K -9.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -9.90%E -2.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -8.86%E -2.39%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-23 14:45
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.18%EV -8.58%E -4.96%K -11.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.75%EV -14.40%E -3.79%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.07%EV -7.63%E -2.03%K -2.77%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-23 14:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.87I 53.48%NM 53.27%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.19%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.54%0.4%2026-08-23 14:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.87I 53.48%NM 53.27%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.19%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.54%0.4%2026-08-23 14:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.87I 53.48%NM 53.09%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.12%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.79%0.7%2026-08-23 14:55
Matchbook1.87I 53.48%NM 53.02%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.55%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.42%0.9%2026-08-23 14:45
Smarkets1.86I 53.76%NM 52.98%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.42%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.60%1.5%2026-08-23 14:55
Kalshi1.82I 54.95%NM 53.91%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.56%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.53%1.9%2026-08-23 14:25