Language:English
Atlético Madrid v Villarreal
Head to Head
Atlético Madrid (Local)
Prediction 48.73%2.05fair odd
EV -3.51%
Edge -1.77%
Kelly -3.58%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.98
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.46%48.99%48.20%53.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.821.891.891.9854.95%53.00%52.91%50.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Villarreal (Visit)
Prediction 23.21%4.31fair odd
EV +16.97%
Edge +3.37%
Kelly +4.20%
Growth +0.713%
assuming max odds 5.04
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.51%23.02%23.72%24.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.504.094.105.0428.57%24.43%24.39%19.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.06%3.56fair odd
EV +1.01%
Edge +0.281%
Kelly +0.388%
Growth +0.004%
assuming max odds 3.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.13%28.00%28.07%28.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.353.403.6032.26%29.84%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Atlético Madrid (Local): 48.73%; Villarreal (Visit): 23.21%; Draw: 28.06%. For Villarreal (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.31. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 5.04, producing a positive expected value of +16.97%.
Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.16%EV -9.84%E -5.32%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 5.04I 19.84%NM 19.51%EV +16.97%E +3.37%K +4.20%G +0.713% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.32%EV +1.01%E +0.281%K +0.388%G +0.004% | 1.7% | 2026-08-02 11:04 |
| Coolbet | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.98%EV -7.41%E -3.90%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.09%EV -0.205%E -0.048%K -0.062%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.93%EV -4.60%E -1.35%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-02 11:49 |
| SportsBet | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.78%EV -8.87%E -4.74%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.08%EV -0.205%E -0.048%K -0.062%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.13%EV -1.80%E -0.513%K -0.718%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-02 11:50 |
| FanDuel | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -10.82%E -5.91%K -13.03%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.67%EV -0.205%E -0.048%K -0.062%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.41%EV -4.60%E -1.35%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-02 11:50 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.12%EV -8.38%E -4.46%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.17%EV -1.37%E -0.321%K -0.420%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -4.60%E -1.35%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-02 11:49 |
| betfred_uk | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.72%EV -7.41%E -3.90%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.49%EV -2.53%E -0.601%K -0.789%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.79%EV -4.60%E -1.35%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-02 11:49 |
| Sky Bet | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -9.84%E -5.32%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -2.53%E -0.601%K -0.789%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -4.60%E -1.35%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-02 11:50 |
| Paddy Power | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.66%EV -10.82%E -5.91%K -13.03%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV -2.53%E -0.601%K -0.789%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -4.60%E -1.35%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-02 11:48 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.14%EV -3.51%E -1.77%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.83%EV -7.17%E -1.79%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.03%EV -4.60%E -1.35%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-02 11:10 |
| William Hill | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.11%EV -4.97%E -2.55%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -7.17%E -1.79%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -7.41%E -2.24%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-02 11:44 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.42%EV -6.92%E -3.62%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -7.17%E -1.79%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -8.81%E -2.71%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-02 11:45 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.88%EV -5.94%E -3.08%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.69%EV -9.49%E -2.43%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.43%EV -8.81%E -2.71%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-02 11:35 |
| LeoVegas | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.04%EV -6.92%E -3.62%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -11.81%E -3.11%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -7.41%E -2.24%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-02 11:10 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.96%EV -6.43%E -3.35%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -12.97%E -3.46%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -6.00%E -1.79%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-02 11:10 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.86I 53.76%NM 48.01%EV -9.36%E -5.03%K -10.88%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.81%EV -12.97%E -3.46%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 3.17I 31.55%NM 28.17%EV -11.06%E -3.49%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-02 11:33 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.82I 54.95%NM 47.46%EV -11.30%E -6.21%K -13.79%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.68%EV -18.77%E -5.36%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.86%EV -13.02%E -4.20%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 15.8% | 2026-08-02 11:29 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets | 1.83I 54.64%NM 46.96% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.21% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 28.84% | 16.4% | 2026-08-02 11:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 34.42% | 187.7% | 2026-08-02 12:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 34.42% | 187.7% | 2026-08-02 12:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 34.42% | 187.7% | 2026-08-02 12:20 |
Arbitrage (15 combinations) +1.91%Codere (IT) 1.98 (51.5%) / 1xBet 5.04 (20.2%) / 1xBet 3.60 (28.3%)Show all 15 combinations
| Atlético Madrid (Local) | Villarreal (Visit) | Draw | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Codere (IT) 1.98 (51.5%) | 1xBet 5.04 (20.2%) | 1xBet 3.60 (28.3%) | +1.91% |
| William Hill 1.95 (51.9%) | 1xBet 5.04 (20.1%) | 1xBet 3.60 (28.1%) | +1.11% |
| Codere (IT) 1.98 (51.1%) | 1xBet 5.04 (20.1%) | SportsBet 3.50 (28.9%) | +1.09% |
| Unibet (UK) 1.93 (52.1%) | 1xBet 5.04 (20.0%) | 1xBet 3.60 (27.9%) | +0.571% |
| William Hill 1.95 (51.4%) | 1xBet 5.04 (19.9%) | SportsBet 3.50 (28.7%) | +0.306% |
| Winamax (DE) 1.92 (52.2%) | 1xBet 5.04 (19.9%) | 1xBet 3.60 (27.9%) | +0.299% |
| Codere (IT) 1.98 (50.6%) | 1xBet 5.04 (19.9%) | Codere (IT) 3.40 (29.5%) | +0.243% |
| Codere (IT) 1.98 (50.6%) | 1xBet 5.04 (19.9%) | Coolbet 3.40 (29.5%) | +0.243% |
| Codere (IT) 1.98 (50.6%) | 1xBet 5.04 (19.9%) | betfred_uk 3.40 (29.5%) | +0.243% |
| Codere (IT) 1.98 (50.6%) | 1xBet 5.04 (19.9%) | Betr (AU) 3.40 (29.5%) | +0.243% |
| Codere (IT) 1.98 (50.6%) | 1xBet 5.04 (19.9%) | Sky Bet 3.40 (29.5%) | +0.243% |
| Codere (IT) 1.98 (50.6%) | 1xBet 5.04 (19.9%) | FanDuel 3.40 (29.5%) | +0.243% |
| Codere (IT) 1.98 (50.6%) | 1xBet 5.04 (19.9%) | Paddy Power 3.40 (29.5%) | +0.243% |
| Mr Green (SE) 1.91 (52.4%) | 1xBet 5.04 (19.8%) | 1xBet 3.60 (27.8%) | +0.025% |
| LeoVegas 1.91 (52.4%) | 1xBet 5.04 (19.8%) | 1xBet 3.60 (27.8%) | +0.025% |