赔率学院赔率.net
默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)
+ 新建模型所有模型

Atlético Madrid v Villarreal

2026-08-23 15:00 UTC — La Liga - Spain

胜负盘

16 家博彩公司 (5 家纳入分析 )

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Atlético Madrid (主队)

预测 48.73%2.05公平赔率
EV -3.51%
优势 -1.77%
Kelly -3.58%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 1.98

博彩公司预测分布
47.46%48.99%48.20%53.16%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
1.821.891.891.9854.95%53.00%52.91%50.51%最小值均值中位数最大值

Villarreal (客队)

预测 23.21%4.31公平赔率
EV +16.97%
优势 +3.37%
Kelly +4.20%
增长率 +0.713%

假设最高赔率为 5.04

博彩公司预测分布
19.51%23.02%23.72%24.68%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
3.504.094.105.0428.57%24.43%24.39%19.84%最小值均值中位数最大值

平局

预测 28.06%3.56公平赔率
EV +1.01%
优势 +0.281%
Kelly +0.388%
增长率 +0.004%

假设最高赔率为 3.60

博彩公司预测分布
27.13%28.00%28.07%28.46%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
3.103.353.403.6032.26%29.84%29.41%27.78%最小值均值中位数最大值

对于胜负盘，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)估计各选项的概率为：Atlético Madrid (主队)：48.73%；Villarreal (客队)：23.21%；平局：28.06%。 对于“Villarreal (客队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为4.31。 有1家博彩公司提供高于该水平的赔率；当前最佳赔率为5.04，由此产生+16.97%的正期望值。

博彩公司赔率 (16 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司主队客队 ▼平局利润率更新时间
1xBet1.85I 54.05%NM 53.16%EV -9.84%E -5.32%K -11.58%G +0.000%5.04I 19.84%NM 19.51%EV +16.97%E +3.37%K +4.20%G +0.713%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.32%EV +1.01%E +0.281%K +0.388%G +0.004%1.7%2026-08-02 11:04
Coolbet1.90I 52.63%NM 49.98%EV -7.41%E -3.90%K -8.23%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.09%EV -0.205%E -0.048%K -0.062%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.93%EV -4.60%E -1.35%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-02 11:49
SportsBet1.87I 53.48%NM 50.78%EV -8.87%E -4.74%K -10.19%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.08%EV -0.205%E -0.048%K -0.062%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.13%EV -1.80%E -0.513%K -0.718%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-02 11:50
FanDuel1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -10.82%E -5.91%K -13.03%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.67%EV -0.205%E -0.048%K -0.062%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.41%EV -4.60%E -1.35%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-02 11:50
Betr (AU)1.88I 53.19%NM 50.12%EV -8.38%E -4.46%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.17%EV -1.37%E -0.321%K -0.420%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -4.60%E -1.35%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-02 11:49
betfred_uk1.90I 52.63%NM 49.72%EV -7.41%E -3.90%K -8.23%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.49%EV -2.53%E -0.601%K -0.789%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.79%EV -4.60%E -1.35%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-02 11:49
Sky Bet1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -9.84%E -5.32%K -11.58%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -2.53%E -0.601%K -0.789%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -4.60%E -1.35%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-02 11:50
Paddy Power1.83I 54.64%NM 50.66%EV -10.82%E -5.91%K -13.03%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV -2.53%E -0.601%K -0.789%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -4.60%E -1.35%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-02 11:48
Codere (IT)1.98I 50.51%NM 48.14%EV -3.51%E -1.77%K -3.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.83%EV -7.17%E -1.79%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.03%EV -4.60%E -1.35%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-02 11:10
William Hill1.95I 51.28%NM 48.11%EV -4.97%E -2.55%K -5.23%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -7.17%E -1.79%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -7.41%E -2.24%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-02 11:44
Mr Green (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 48.42%EV -6.92%E -3.62%K -7.60%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -7.17%E -1.79%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -8.81%E -2.71%K -3.92%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-02 11:45
Unibet (UK)1.93I 51.81%NM 47.88%EV -5.94%E -3.08%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.69%EV -9.49%E -2.43%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.43%EV -8.81%E -2.71%K -3.92%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-02 11:35
LeoVegas1.91I 52.36%NM 48.04%EV -6.92%E -3.62%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -11.81%E -3.11%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -7.41%E -2.24%K -3.22%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-02 11:10
Winamax (DE)1.92I 52.08%NM 47.96%EV -6.43%E -3.35%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -12.97%E -3.46%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -6.00%E -1.79%K -2.56%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-02 11:10
Betclic (FR)1.86I 53.76%NM 48.01%EV -9.36%E -5.03%K -10.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.81%EV -12.97%E -3.46%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 28.17%EV -11.06%E -3.49%K -5.09%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-02 11:33
Winamax (FR)1.82I 54.95%NM 47.46%EV -11.30%E -6.21%K -13.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.68%EV -18.77%E -5.36%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.86%EV -13.02%E -4.20%K -6.20%G +0.000%15.8%2026-08-02 11:29
利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (4)

博彩公司主队客队平局利润率 ▲更新时间
Smarkets1.83I 54.64%NM 46.96%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.21%2.98I 33.56%NM 28.84%16.4%2026-08-02 11:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79%1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79%1.01I 99.01%NM 34.42%187.7%2026-08-02 12:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79%1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79%1.01I 99.01%NM 34.42%187.7%2026-08-02 12:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79%1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79%1.01I 99.01%NM 34.42%187.7%2026-08-02 12:20
套利（15 种组合） +1.91%Codere (IT) 1.98 (51.5%) / 1xBet 5.04 (20.2%) / 1xBet 3.60 (28.3%)显示全部 15 种组合
Atlético Madrid (主队)Villarreal (客队)平局利润率
Codere (IT) 1.98 (51.5%)1xBet 5.04 (20.2%)1xBet 3.60 (28.3%)+1.91%
William Hill 1.95 (51.9%)1xBet 5.04 (20.1%)1xBet 3.60 (28.1%)+1.11%
Codere (IT) 1.98 (51.1%)1xBet 5.04 (20.1%)SportsBet 3.50 (28.9%)+1.09%
Unibet (UK) 1.93 (52.1%)1xBet 5.04 (20.0%)1xBet 3.60 (27.9%)+0.571%
William Hill 1.95 (51.4%)1xBet 5.04 (19.9%)SportsBet 3.50 (28.7%)+0.306%
Winamax (DE) 1.92 (52.2%)1xBet 5.04 (19.9%)1xBet 3.60 (27.9%)+0.299%
Codere (IT) 1.98 (50.6%)1xBet 5.04 (19.9%)Codere (IT) 3.40 (29.5%)+0.243%
Codere (IT) 1.98 (50.6%)1xBet 5.04 (19.9%)Coolbet 3.40 (29.5%)+0.243%
Codere (IT) 1.98 (50.6%)1xBet 5.04 (19.9%)betfred_uk 3.40 (29.5%)+0.243%
Codere (IT) 1.98 (50.6%)1xBet 5.04 (19.9%)Betr (AU) 3.40 (29.5%)+0.243%
Codere (IT) 1.98 (50.6%)1xBet 5.04 (19.9%)Sky Bet 3.40 (29.5%)+0.243%
Codere (IT) 1.98 (50.6%)1xBet 5.04 (19.9%)FanDuel 3.40 (29.5%)+0.243%
Codere (IT) 1.98 (50.6%)1xBet 5.04 (19.9%)Paddy Power 3.40 (29.5%)+0.243%
Mr Green (SE) 1.91 (52.4%)1xBet 5.04 (19.8%)1xBet 3.60 (27.8%)+0.025%
LeoVegas 1.91 (52.4%)1xBet 5.04 (19.8%)1xBet 3.60 (27.8%)+0.025%