La escuela de los momios

Atlético Madrid v Getafe

Inicio: 2026-03-14 15:15 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Atlético Madrid (Local)

Predicción 57.60%1.74momio equitativo
EV -1.51%
Ventaja -0.882%
Kelly -2.12%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.71

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
55.81%57.72%57.43%59.19%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.571.641.641.7163.69%61.11%60.98%58.48%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Getafe (Visitante)

Predicción 15.49%6.45momio equitativo
EV +8.45%
Ventaja +1.21%
Kelly +1.41%
Crecimiento +0.119%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 7.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
13.78%15.31%15.65%16.94%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
5.506.286.257.0018.18%15.93%16.00%14.29%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 26.91%3.72momio equitativo
EV -1.78%
Ventaja -0.487%
Kelly -0.670%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.65

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.16%26.97%26.92%28.26%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.473.503.6532.26%28.85%28.57%27.40%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
ATG (SE)1.68I 59.52%NM 58.14%EV -3.24%E -1.93%K -4.76%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.95%EV +8.45%E +1.21%K +1.41%G +0.119%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.91%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.4%2026-03-14 14:45
Coolbet1.65I 60.61%NM 59.03%EV -4.96%E -3.01%K -7.64%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.91%EV +8.45%E +1.21%K +1.41%G +0.119%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.06%EV -3.12%E -0.867%K -1.20%G +0.000%2.7%2026-03-14 14:25
Unibet (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 58.28%EV -3.81%E -2.28%K -5.69%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.91%EV +8.45%E +1.21%K +1.41%G +0.119%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.81%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.7%2026-03-14 14:45
Svenska Spel1.67I 59.88%NM 58.28%EV -3.81%E -2.28%K -5.69%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.91%EV +8.45%E +1.21%K +1.41%G +0.119%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.81%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.7%2026-03-14 14:45
Unibet (NL)1.65I 60.61%NM 58.58%EV -4.96%E -3.01%K -7.64%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.81%EV +8.45%E +1.21%K +1.41%G +0.119%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.62%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-14 14:44
BetOnline.ag1.63I 61.35%NM 59.19%EV -6.12%E -3.75%K -9.71%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.78%EV +8.45%E +1.21%K +1.41%G +0.119%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.03%EV -3.93%E -1.10%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-14 10:45
LowVig.ag1.63I 61.35%NM 59.19%EV -6.12%E -3.75%K -9.71%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.78%EV +8.45%E +1.21%K +1.41%G +0.119%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.03%EV -3.93%E -1.10%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-14 10:45
Pinnacle1.66I 60.24%NM 58.80%EV -4.39%E -2.64%K -6.65%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.46%EV +4.57%E +0.677%K +0.795%G +0.036%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.74%EV -1.78%E -0.487%K -0.670%G +0.000%2.5%2026-03-14 15:00
Casumo1.63I 61.35%NM 58.11%EV -6.12%E -3.75%K -9.71%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.03%EV +4.57%E +0.677%K +0.795%G +0.036%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -8.50%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-14 14:45
Grosvenor1.63I 61.35%NM 58.11%EV -6.12%E -3.75%K -9.71%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.03%EV +4.57%E +0.677%K +0.795%G +0.036%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -8.50%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-14 14:45
Bally Bet1.63I 61.35%NM 58.11%EV -6.12%E -3.75%K -9.71%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.03%EV +4.57%E +0.677%K +0.795%G +0.036%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -8.50%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-14 14:45
betPARX1.63I 61.35%NM 58.11%EV -6.12%E -3.75%K -9.71%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.03%EV +4.57%E +0.677%K +0.795%G +0.036%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -8.50%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-14 14:45
TABtouch1.61I 62.11%NM 58.41%EV -7.27%E -4.51%K -11.92%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.93%EV +4.57%E +0.677%K +0.795%G +0.036%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -8.50%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-14 14:49
Unibet1.61I 62.11%NM 58.41%EV -7.27%E -4.51%K -11.92%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.93%EV +4.57%E +0.677%K +0.795%G +0.036%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -8.50%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-14 14:45
LeoVegas (SE)1.61I 62.11%NM 58.41%EV -7.27%E -4.51%K -11.92%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.93%EV +4.57%E +0.677%K +0.795%G +0.036%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -8.50%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-14 14:44
BetRivers1.60I 62.50%NM 58.32%EV -7.84%E -4.90%K -13.07%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.82%EV +4.57%E +0.677%K +0.795%G +0.036%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.85%EV -9.85%E -2.94%K -4.19%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-14 14:45
FanDuel1.62I 61.73%NM 58.41%EV -6.69%E -4.13%K -10.79%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV +0.699%E +0.108%K +0.127%G +0.001%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.03%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-14 14:30
Sky Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 58.41%EV -6.69%E -4.13%K -10.79%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV +0.699%E +0.108%K +0.127%G +0.001%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.03%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-14 15:10
Betclic (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.41%EV -6.69%E -4.13%K -10.79%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV +0.699%E +0.108%K +0.127%G +0.001%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.03%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-14 14:34
SportsBet1.61I 62.11%NM 58.56%EV -7.27%E -4.51%K -11.92%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.50%EV +0.699%E +0.108%K +0.127%G +0.001%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.94%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-14 14:30
Paddy Power1.62I 61.73%NM 57.95%EV -6.69%E -4.13%K -10.79%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV +0.699%E +0.108%K +0.127%G +0.001%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.61%EV -8.50%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-14 15:08
PMU (FR)1.60I 62.50%NM 58.48%EV -7.84%E -4.90%K -13.07%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV +0.699%E +0.108%K +0.127%G +0.001%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.12%EV -7.16%E -2.08%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-14 14:30
LeoVegas1.57I 63.69%NM 58.23%EV -9.57%E -6.10%K -16.79%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.07%EV +0.699%E +0.108%K +0.127%G +0.001%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -11.20%E -3.39%K -4.87%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-14 14:40
Virgin Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 57.64%EV -7.84%E -4.90%K -13.07%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.41%EV -0.850%E -0.133%K -0.157%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -11.20%E -3.39%K -4.87%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-14 14:45
LiveScore Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 57.64%EV -7.84%E -4.90%K -13.07%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.41%EV -0.850%E -0.133%K -0.157%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -11.20%E -3.39%K -4.87%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-14 14:45
Bovada1.65I 60.61%NM 57.62%EV -4.96%E -3.01%K -7.64%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.21%EV -3.17%E -0.508%K -0.604%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.16%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-14 15:08
Everygame1.65I 60.61%NM 57.62%EV -4.96%E -3.01%K -7.64%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.21%EV -3.17%E -0.508%K -0.604%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.16%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-14 15:10
Winamax (DE)1.64I 60.98%NM 57.77%EV -5.54%E -3.38%K -8.66%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.16%EV -3.17%E -0.508%K -0.604%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.07%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-14 15:10
Unibet (FR)1.58I 63.29%NM 58.68%EV -9.00%E -5.69%K -15.51%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.83%EV -3.17%E -0.508%K -0.604%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-14 15:05
1xBet1.70I 58.82%NM 57.01%EV -2.08%E -1.23%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.12I 16.34%NM 15.84%EV -5.19%E -0.848%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.15%EV -3.93%E -1.10%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-14 15:10
NetBet (FR)1.61I 62.11%NM 58.01%EV -7.27%E -4.51%K -11.92%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.31%EV -5.50%E -0.901%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.68%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-14 15:10
DraftKings1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -3.81%E -2.28%K -5.69%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.92%EV -7.05%E -1.17%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.90%EV -4.47%E -1.26%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-14 15:10
Bet Victor1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.96%E -3.01%K -7.64%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.87%EV -7.05%E -1.17%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.44%EV -3.12%E -0.867%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-14 14:59
Coral1.67I 59.88%NM 56.96%EV -3.81%E -2.28%K -5.69%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.86%EV -7.05%E -1.17%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-14 14:15
BetMGM1.67I 59.88%NM 56.96%EV -3.81%E -2.28%K -5.69%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.86%EV -7.05%E -1.17%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-14 14:15
Codere (IT)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.48%EV -4.96%E -3.01%K -7.64%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.81%EV -7.05%E -1.17%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.72%EV -4.47%E -1.26%K -1.75%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-14 15:10
Betway1.65I 60.61%NM 57.26%EV -4.96%E -3.01%K -7.64%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.75%EV -7.05%E -1.17%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-14 14:49
Fanatics1.67I 59.88%NM 56.51%EV -3.81%E -2.28%K -5.69%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.05%E -1.17%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -8.50%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-14 13:25
Tipico (DE)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.69%E -4.13%K -10.79%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -7.05%E -1.17%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -3.12%E -0.867%K -1.20%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-14 15:10
theScore Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.69%E -4.13%K -10.79%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -7.05%E -1.17%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -3.12%E -0.867%K -1.20%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-14 14:30
Betr (AU)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.81%EV -4.96%E -3.01%K -7.64%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV -7.05%E -1.17%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -8.50%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-14 15:10
BoyleSports1.62I 61.73%NM 57.26%EV -6.69%E -4.13%K -10.79%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.46%EV -7.05%E -1.17%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -8.50%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-14 14:19
Winamax (FR)1.60I 62.50%NM 57.56%EV -7.84%E -4.90%K -13.07%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.35%EV -7.05%E -1.17%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -8.50%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-14 15:10
Marathon Bet1.71I 58.48%NM 56.22%EV -1.51%E -0.882%K -2.12%G +0.000%5.95I 16.81%NM 16.16%EV -7.82%E -1.31%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.62%EV -6.35%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-14 15:10
Fliff1.59I 62.89%NM 57.41%EV -8.42%E -5.30%K -14.27%G +0.000%5.95I 16.81%NM 15.34%EV -7.82%E -1.31%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.25%EV -9.85%E -2.94%K -4.19%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-14 15:05
Betsson1.68I 59.52%NM 56.88%EV -3.24%E -1.93%K -4.76%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.20%EV -8.60%E -1.46%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.92%EV -4.47%E -1.26%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-14 14:20
NordicBet1.68I 59.52%NM 56.88%EV -3.24%E -1.93%K -4.76%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.20%EV -8.60%E -1.46%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.92%EV -4.47%E -1.26%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-14 14:20
William Hill1.65I 60.61%NM 56.50%EV -4.96%E -3.01%K -7.64%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.07%EV -10.15%E -1.75%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -8.50%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-14 15:09
Unibet (UK)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.87%EV -4.96%E -3.01%K -7.64%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.32%EV -10.92%E -1.90%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-14 15:10
Ladbrokes (AU)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.87%EV -4.96%E -3.01%K -7.64%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.32%EV -10.92%E -1.90%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-14 14:20
Neds1.65I 60.61%NM 56.87%EV -4.96%E -3.01%K -7.64%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.32%EV -10.92%E -1.90%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-14 14:20
Ladbrokes (UK)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.87%EV -4.96%E -3.01%K -7.64%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.32%EV -10.92%E -1.90%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-14 14:20
Mr Green (SE)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.43%EV -4.96%E -3.01%K -7.64%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -10.92%E -1.90%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.38%EV -8.50%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-14 15:10
Bet Right1.64I 60.98%NM 56.57%EV -5.54%E -3.38%K -8.66%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.14%EV -10.92%E -1.90%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.29%EV -8.50%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-14 15:10
TAB1.65I 60.61%NM 56.45%EV -4.96%E -3.01%K -7.64%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.94%EV -14.79%E -2.69%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-14 14:54
PlayUp1.63I 61.35%NM 56.75%EV -6.12%E -3.75%K -9.71%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.82%EV -14.79%E -2.69%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-14 14:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.57I 63.69%NM 55.81%EV -9.57%E -6.10%K -16.79%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.93%EV -14.79%E -2.69%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.26%EV -16.58%E -5.35%K -7.89%G +0.000%14.1%2026-03-14 14:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 58.53%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.21%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.26%0.5%2026-03-14 15:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.70I 58.82%NM 58.53%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.21%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.26%0.5%2026-03-14 15:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.71I 58.48%NM 58.14%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.62%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.24%0.6%2026-03-14 15:10
Matchbook1.71I 58.48%NM 58.14%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.62%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.24%0.6%2026-03-14 15:10
Smarkets1.70I 58.82%NM 58.28%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.15%0.9%2026-03-14 15:10
Kalshi1.67I 59.88%NM 58.79%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.71%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.50%1.9%2026-03-14 15:10