La escuela de los momios

Atlético Madrid v Espanyol

Inicio: 2026-02-21 20:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Atlético Madrid (Local)

Predicción 67.26%1.49momio equitativo
EV -0.459%
Ventaja -0.310%
Kelly -0.957%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.48

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
64.74%67.16%67.14%68.67%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.331.401.401.4875.19%71.34%71.43%67.57%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Espanyol (Visitante)

Predicción 12.44%8.04momio equitativo
EV +5.78%
Ventaja +0.680%
Kelly +0.771%
Crecimiento +0.045%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 8.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
11.37%12.50%12.58%14.63%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
6.407.627.838.5015.63%13.13%12.78%11.76%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 20.30%4.93momio equitativo
EV -0.541%
Ventaja -0.110%
Kelly -0.139%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.32%20.34%20.28%22.96%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.754.584.604.9026.67%21.85%21.74%20.41%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
ATG (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 67.76%EV -3.15%E -2.19%K -7.16%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.48%EV +5.78%E +0.680%K +0.771%G +0.045%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.76%EV -4.60%E -0.979%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.5%2026-02-21 19:40
Unibet (SE)1.43I 69.93%NM 67.91%EV -3.82%E -2.67%K -8.89%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.43%EV +5.78%E +0.680%K +0.771%G +0.045%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.66%EV -4.60%E -0.979%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.0%2026-02-21 19:55
Svenska Spel1.43I 69.93%NM 67.91%EV -3.82%E -2.67%K -8.89%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.43%EV +5.78%E +0.680%K +0.771%G +0.045%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.66%EV -4.60%E -0.979%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.0%2026-02-21 19:55
Unibet (NL)1.42I 70.42%NM 68.06%EV -4.49%E -3.17%K -10.70%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.37%EV +5.78%E +0.680%K +0.771%G +0.045%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.56%EV -4.60%E -0.979%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.5%2026-02-21 19:55
LowVig.ag1.41I 70.92%NM 68.47%EV -5.17%E -3.66%K -12.60%G +0.000%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.49%EV +4.54%E +0.540%K +0.613%G +0.028%4.82I 20.75%NM 20.03%EV -2.16%E -0.449%K -0.567%G +0.000%3.6%2026-02-21 19:55
BetOnline.ag1.41I 70.92%NM 68.47%EV -5.17%E -3.66%K -12.60%G +0.000%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.49%EV +4.54%E +0.540%K +0.613%G +0.028%4.82I 20.75%NM 20.03%EV -2.16%E -0.449%K -0.567%G +0.000%3.6%2026-02-21 19:55
Marathon Bet1.42I 70.42%NM 67.68%EV -4.49%E -3.17%K -10.70%G +0.000%8.10I 12.35%NM 11.87%EV +0.804%E +0.099%K +0.113%G +0.001%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.45%EV -4.60%E -0.979%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.0%2026-02-21 19:55
Coolbet1.45I 68.97%NM 67.12%EV -2.48%E -1.71%K -5.50%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.17%EV -0.441%E -0.055%K -0.063%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.71%EV -4.60%E -0.979%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.7%2026-02-21 19:40
Pinnacle1.44I 69.44%NM 66.95%EV -3.15%E -2.19%K -7.16%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.05%EV -0.441%E -0.055%K -0.063%G +0.000%4.59I 21.79%NM 21.00%EV -6.83%E -1.49%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.7%2026-02-21 19:25
DraftKings1.41I 70.92%NM 67.74%EV -5.17%E -3.66%K -12.60%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.94%EV -0.441%E -0.055%K -0.063%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.32%EV -4.60%E -0.979%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.7%2026-02-21 19:55
Everygame1.40I 71.43%NM 67.60%EV -5.84%E -4.17%K -14.60%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.83%EV -0.441%E -0.055%K -0.063%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.57%EV -6.63%E -1.44%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-21 19:55
FanDuel1.38I 72.46%NM 68.21%EV -7.18%E -5.21%K -18.91%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -0.441%E -0.055%K -0.063%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -4.60%E -0.979%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-21 19:50
Tipico (DE)1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -7.86%E -5.74%K -21.24%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.76%EV -0.441%E -0.055%K -0.063%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -2.57%E -0.536%K -0.677%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-21 19:55
Sky Bet1.36I 73.53%NM 68.67%EV -8.53%E -6.27%K -23.69%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.67%EV -0.441%E -0.055%K -0.063%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.66%EV -3.59%E -0.755%K -0.956%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-21 19:50
BetRivers1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -7.18%E -5.21%K -18.91%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -0.441%E -0.055%K -0.063%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -8.66%E -1.92%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-21 19:55
Grosvenor1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -7.18%E -5.21%K -18.91%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -0.441%E -0.055%K -0.063%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -8.66%E -1.92%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-21 19:55
TABtouch1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -7.18%E -5.21%K -18.91%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -0.441%E -0.055%K -0.063%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -8.66%E -1.92%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-21 19:55
Casumo1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -7.18%E -5.21%K -18.91%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -0.441%E -0.055%K -0.063%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -8.66%E -1.92%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-21 19:55
LeoVegas (SE)1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -7.18%E -5.21%K -18.91%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -0.441%E -0.055%K -0.063%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -8.66%E -1.92%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-21 19:55
Unibet1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -7.18%E -5.21%K -18.91%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -0.441%E -0.055%K -0.063%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -8.66%E -1.92%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-21 19:55
Bally Bet1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -7.18%E -5.21%K -18.91%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -0.441%E -0.055%K -0.063%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -8.66%E -1.92%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-21 19:55
betPARX1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -7.18%E -5.21%K -18.91%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -0.441%E -0.055%K -0.063%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -8.66%E -1.92%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-21 19:55
Paddy Power1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -8.53%E -6.27%K -23.69%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -0.441%E -0.055%K -0.063%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -8.66%E -1.92%K -2.47%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-21 19:50
Virgin Bet1.36I 73.53%NM 67.61%EV -8.53%E -6.27%K -23.69%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -0.441%E -0.055%K -0.063%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.90%EV -10.69%E -2.43%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-21 19:55
LiveScore Bet1.36I 73.53%NM 67.61%EV -8.53%E -6.27%K -23.69%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -0.441%E -0.055%K -0.063%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.90%EV -10.69%E -2.43%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-21 19:55
LeoVegas1.36I 73.53%NM 67.61%EV -8.53%E -6.27%K -23.69%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -0.441%E -0.055%K -0.063%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.90%EV -10.69%E -2.43%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-21 19:55
NordicBet1.41I 70.92%NM 67.64%EV -5.17%E -3.66%K -12.60%G +0.000%7.90I 12.66%NM 12.07%EV -1.69%E -0.213%K -0.244%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.29%EV -4.60%E -0.979%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-21 19:55
Betsson1.41I 70.92%NM 67.64%EV -5.17%E -3.66%K -12.60%G +0.000%7.90I 12.66%NM 12.07%EV -1.69%E -0.213%K -0.244%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.29%EV -4.60%E -0.979%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-21 19:55
Bovada1.41I 70.92%NM 67.33%EV -5.17%E -3.66%K -12.60%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.25%EV -3.55%E -0.458%K -0.526%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.42%EV -5.62%E -1.21%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-21 19:55
theScore Bet1.42I 70.42%NM 67.33%EV -4.49%E -3.17%K -10.70%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.75%EV -6.66%E -0.888%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.92%EV -2.57%E -0.536%K -0.677%G +0.000%4.6%2026-02-21 19:55
Bet Victor1.44I 69.44%NM 66.14%EV -3.15%E -2.19%K -7.16%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.70%EV -6.66%E -0.888%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16%EV -8.66%E -1.92%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-21 19:40
Fanatics1.40I 71.43%NM 67.50%EV -5.84%E -4.17%K -14.60%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.60%EV -6.66%E -0.888%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -3.59%E -0.755%K -0.956%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-21 19:45
Betway1.40I 71.43%NM 67.50%EV -5.84%E -4.17%K -14.60%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.60%EV -6.66%E -0.888%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -3.59%E -0.755%K -0.956%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-21 19:55
TAB1.40I 71.43%NM 66.77%EV -5.84%E -4.17%K -14.60%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -6.66%E -0.888%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -8.66%E -1.92%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-21 19:55
Betr (AU)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.45%EV -5.84%E -4.17%K -14.60%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -6.66%E -0.888%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -10.69%E -2.43%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-21 19:55
PMU (FR)1.34I 74.63%NM 67.73%EV -9.88%E -7.37%K -29.04%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.10%EV -6.66%E -0.888%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.17%EV -8.66%E -1.92%K -2.47%G +0.000%10.2%2026-02-21 19:50
1xBet1.48I 67.57%NM 65.73%EV -0.459%E -0.310%K -0.957%G +0.000%7.34I 13.62%NM 13.25%EV -8.65%E -1.18%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.63I 21.60%NM 21.01%EV -6.02%E -1.30%K -1.66%G +0.000%2.8%2026-02-21 19:55
Winamax (DE)1.40I 71.43%NM 67.62%EV -5.84%E -4.17%K -14.60%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.06%EV -9.77%E -1.35%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.32%EV -0.541%E -0.110%K -0.139%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-21 19:55
Betclic (FR)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.48%EV -5.84%E -4.17%K -14.60%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.84%EV -9.77%E -1.35%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.68%EV -8.66%E -1.92%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-21 19:35
NetBet (FR)1.38I 72.46%NM 66.49%EV -7.18%E -5.21%K -18.91%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.66%EV -9.77%E -1.35%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.85%EV -10.69%E -2.43%K -3.14%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-21 19:40
Fliff1.37I 72.99%NM 66.81%EV -7.86%E -5.74%K -21.24%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.62%EV -9.77%E -1.35%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.57%EV -9.68%E -2.17%K -2.80%G +0.000%9.3%2026-02-21 19:55
Codere (IT)1.43I 69.93%NM 66.82%EV -3.82%E -2.67%K -8.89%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.27%EV -10.40%E -1.44%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.91%EV -2.57%E -0.536%K -0.677%G +0.000%4.7%2026-02-21 19:55
Unibet (FR)1.42I 70.42%NM 65.77%EV -4.49%E -3.17%K -10.70%G +0.000%7.05I 14.18%NM 13.25%EV -12.26%E -1.74%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.99%EV -9.68%E -2.17%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-21 19:55
Coral1.44I 69.44%NM 65.84%EV -3.15%E -2.19%K -7.16%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.54%EV -12.89%E -1.84%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.61%EV -6.63%E -1.44%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-21 19:10
Unibet (UK)1.42I 70.42%NM 66.59%EV -4.49%E -3.17%K -10.70%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -12.89%E -1.84%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.91%EV -3.59%E -0.755%K -0.956%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-21 19:55
Bet Right1.41I 70.92%NM 65.71%EV -5.17%E -3.66%K -12.60%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -12.89%E -1.84%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.06%EV -10.69%E -2.43%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.9%2026-02-21 19:50
PlayUp1.40I 71.43%NM 66.18%EV -5.84%E -4.17%K -14.60%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -12.89%E -1.84%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -8.66%E -1.92%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.9%2026-02-21 19:55
Winamax (FR)1.38I 72.46%NM 67.08%EV -7.18%E -5.21%K -18.91%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.22%EV -12.89%E -1.84%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.70%EV -4.60%E -0.979%K -1.24%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-21 19:55
William Hill1.40I 71.43%NM 65.87%EV -5.84%E -4.17%K -14.60%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -12.89%E -1.84%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -10.69%E -2.43%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-21 19:55
Mr Green (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 65.87%EV -5.84%E -4.17%K -14.60%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -12.89%E -1.84%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -10.69%E -2.43%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-21 19:55
BoyleSports1.40I 71.43%NM 65.65%EV -5.84%E -4.17%K -14.60%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -12.89%E -1.84%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.22%EV -12.11%E -2.80%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-21 19:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.33I 75.19%NM 64.74%EV -10.55%E -7.93%K -31.96%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.30%EV -12.89%E -1.84%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.96%EV -23.88%E -6.37%K -8.68%G +0.000%16.1%2026-02-21 19:50
BetMGM1.44I 69.44%NM 65.51%EV -3.15%E -2.19%K -7.16%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.98%EV -16.00%E -2.37%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -6.63%E -1.44%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-21 19:09
Ladbrokes (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 65.16%EV -3.15%E -2.19%K -7.16%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -19.11%E -2.94%K -3.47%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -6.63%E -1.44%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-21 19:15
Neds1.44I 69.44%NM 65.02%EV -3.15%E -2.19%K -7.16%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV -20.35%E -3.18%K -3.77%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.35%EV -6.63%E -1.44%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-21 19:10
Ladbrokes (AU)1.44I 69.44%NM 65.02%EV -3.15%E -2.19%K -7.16%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV -20.35%E -3.18%K -3.77%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.35%EV -6.63%E -1.44%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-21 19:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.44I 69.44%NM 69.23%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.59%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.17%0.3%2026-02-21 19:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.43I 69.93%NM 69.57%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.30%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.13%0.5%2026-02-21 19:55
Matchbook1.43I 69.93%NM 69.57%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.30%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.13%0.5%2026-02-21 19:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.42I 70.42%NM 69.89%9.00I 11.11%NM 11.03%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.08%0.8%2026-02-21 19:55
Smarkets1.42I 70.42%NM 69.27%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.44%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.29%1.7%2026-02-21 19:55