La escuela de los momios

Athletic Bilbao v Valencia

Inicio: 2026-05-10 14:15 UTC

Final: Athletic Bilbao 0–1 Valencia

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Athletic Bilbao (Local)

Predicción 56.93%1.76momio equitativo
EV -0.936%
Ventaja -0.538%
Kelly -1.27%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.74

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
55.18%56.98%56.96%58.50%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.611.671.671.7462.11%60.06%59.88%57.47%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Valencia (Visitante)

Predicción 17.81%5.61momio equitativo
EV +2.42%
Ventaja +0.421%
Kelly +0.509%
Crecimiento +0.012%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
16.38%17.73%17.77%18.77%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.905.295.305.7520.41%18.90%18.87%17.39%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 25.25%3.96momio equitativo
EV -0.496%
Ventaja -0.126%
Kelly -0.169%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.94

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.29%25.29%25.27%26.25%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.553.723.753.9428.17%26.92%26.67%25.38%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Bet Victor1.61I 62.11%NM 58.50%EV -8.34%E -5.18%K -13.67%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.38%EV +2.42%E +0.421%K +0.509%G +0.012%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.12%EV -5.29%E -1.41%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-10 13:59
FanDuel1.65I 60.61%NM 57.62%EV -6.06%E -3.67%K -9.32%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.68%EV +1.53%E +0.268%K +0.325%G +0.005%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -6.56%E -1.77%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-10 13:59
Unibet (NL)1.71I 58.48%NM 56.77%EV -2.64%E -1.55%K -3.72%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.34%EV -0.253%E -0.045%K -0.055%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.89%EV -5.29%E -1.41%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-10 13:55
1xBet1.72I 58.14%NM 57.31%EV -2.08%E -1.21%K -2.88%G +0.000%5.58I 17.92%NM 17.67%EV -0.609%E -0.109%K -0.133%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 25.02%EV -0.496%E -0.126%K -0.169%G +0.000%1.4%2026-05-10 13:55
Pinnacle1.68I 59.52%NM 57.65%EV -4.35%E -2.59%K -6.40%G +0.000%5.55I 18.02%NM 17.45%EV -1.14%E -0.206%K -0.251%G +0.000%3.89I 25.71%NM 24.90%EV -1.76%E -0.452%K -0.608%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-10 13:59
ATG (SE)1.74I 57.47%NM 56.17%EV -0.936%E -0.538%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.77%EV -2.03%E -0.370%K -0.452%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.06%EV -5.29%E -1.41%K -1.93%G +0.000%2.3%2026-05-10 13:54
Unibet (SE)1.72I 58.14%NM 56.45%EV -2.08%E -1.21%K -2.88%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.65%EV -2.03%E -0.370%K -0.452%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.89%EV -5.29%E -1.41%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-10 13:54
Svenska Spel1.72I 58.14%NM 56.45%EV -2.08%E -1.21%K -2.88%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.65%EV -2.03%E -0.370%K -0.452%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.89%EV -5.29%E -1.41%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-10 13:54
Marathon Bet1.69I 59.17%NM 57.38%EV -3.78%E -2.24%K -5.48%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.63%EV -2.03%E -0.370%K -0.452%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.99%EV -2.01%E -0.518%K -0.698%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-10 13:54
BetOnline.ag1.69I 59.17%NM 57.08%EV -3.78%E -2.24%K -5.48%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.54%EV -2.03%E -0.370%K -0.452%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.38%EV -4.03%E -1.06%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-10 13:45
LowVig.ag1.69I 59.17%NM 57.08%EV -3.78%E -2.24%K -5.48%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.54%EV -2.03%E -0.370%K -0.452%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.38%EV -4.03%E -1.06%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-10 13:45
SportsBet1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -6.06%E -3.67%K -9.32%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.24%EV -2.03%E -0.370%K -0.452%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.29%EV -5.29%E -1.41%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-10 13:59
Everygame1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -6.06%E -3.67%K -9.32%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.24%EV -2.03%E -0.370%K -0.452%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.29%EV -5.29%E -1.41%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-10 13:59
Betway1.67I 59.88%NM 56.58%EV -4.92%E -2.95%K -7.35%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.18%EV -2.03%E -0.370%K -0.452%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.25%EV -9.08%E -2.52%K -3.49%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-10 14:00
Sky Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 58.11%EV -7.77%E -4.80%K -12.53%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -2.03%E -0.370%K -0.452%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.77%EV -4.03%E -1.06%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-10 13:59
Tipico (DE)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.11%EV -7.77%E -4.80%K -12.53%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -2.03%E -0.370%K -0.452%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.77%EV -4.03%E -1.06%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-10 14:00
Paddy Power1.62I 61.73%NM 57.72%EV -7.77%E -4.80%K -12.53%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.00%EV -2.03%E -0.370%K -0.452%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -6.56%E -1.77%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-10 13:59
BetUS1.65I 60.61%NM 57.57%EV -6.06%E -3.67%K -9.32%G +0.000%5.45I 18.35%NM 17.43%EV -2.92%E -0.537%K -0.657%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.00%EV -4.03%E -1.06%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-10 13:59
Codere (IT)1.68I 59.52%NM 56.85%EV -4.35%E -2.59%K -6.40%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.69%EV -3.82%E -0.707%K -0.867%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.47%EV -5.29%E -1.41%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-10 13:59
Betsson1.68I 59.52%NM 56.65%EV -4.35%E -2.59%K -6.40%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.63%EV -3.82%E -0.707%K -0.867%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.72%EV -6.56%E -1.77%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-10 13:44
NordicBet1.68I 59.52%NM 56.65%EV -4.35%E -2.59%K -6.40%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.63%EV -3.82%E -0.707%K -0.867%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.72%EV -6.56%E -1.77%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-10 13:44
Bovada1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.49%E -3.31%K -8.32%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.62%EV -3.82%E -0.707%K -0.867%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.04%EV -4.03%E -1.06%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-10 13:53
Casumo1.68I 59.52%NM 56.45%EV -4.35%E -2.59%K -6.40%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -3.82%E -0.707%K -0.867%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.98%EV -7.82%E -2.14%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-10 13:54
Grosvenor1.68I 59.52%NM 56.45%EV -4.35%E -2.59%K -6.40%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -3.82%E -0.707%K -0.867%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.98%EV -7.82%E -2.14%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-10 13:54
Bally Bet1.68I 59.52%NM 56.45%EV -4.35%E -2.59%K -6.40%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -3.82%E -0.707%K -0.867%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.98%EV -7.82%E -2.14%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-10 13:55
betPARX1.68I 59.52%NM 56.45%EV -4.35%E -2.59%K -6.40%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -3.82%E -0.707%K -0.867%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.98%EV -7.82%E -2.14%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-10 13:55
Coolbet1.71I 58.48%NM 56.77%EV -2.64%E -1.55%K -3.72%G +0.000%5.39I 18.55%NM 18.01%EV -3.99%E -0.741%K -0.910%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.22%EV -2.77%E -0.719%K -0.971%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-10 14:00
TABtouch1.66I 60.24%NM 56.56%EV -5.49%E -3.31%K -8.32%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.72%EV -5.60%E -1.06%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.72%EV -7.82%E -2.14%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-10 13:54
Unibet1.66I 60.24%NM 56.56%EV -5.49%E -3.31%K -8.32%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.72%EV -5.60%E -1.06%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.72%EV -7.82%E -2.14%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-10 13:54
LeoVegas (SE)1.66I 60.24%NM 56.56%EV -5.49%E -3.31%K -8.32%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.72%EV -5.60%E -1.06%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.72%EV -7.82%E -2.14%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-10 13:54
BetRivers1.65I 60.61%NM 56.51%EV -6.06%E -3.67%K -9.32%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.59%EV -5.60%E -1.06%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.90%EV -9.08%E -2.52%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-10 13:54
DraftKings1.67I 59.88%NM 56.90%EV -4.92%E -2.95%K -7.35%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -6.49%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.00%EV -4.03%E -1.06%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-10 13:44
Coral1.67I 59.88%NM 56.90%EV -4.92%E -2.95%K -7.35%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -6.49%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.00%EV -4.03%E -1.06%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-10 13:45
theScore Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 56.90%EV -4.92%E -2.95%K -7.35%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -6.49%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.00%EV -4.03%E -1.06%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-10 09:24
Unibet (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.71%EV -4.92%E -2.95%K -7.35%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.04%EV -6.49%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.25%EV -5.29%E -1.41%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-10 13:45
BetMGM1.67I 59.88%NM 56.71%EV -4.92%E -2.95%K -7.35%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.04%EV -6.49%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.25%EV -5.29%E -1.41%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-10 13:59
Fanatics1.69I 59.17%NM 55.82%EV -3.78%E -2.24%K -5.48%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -6.49%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -9.08%E -2.52%K -3.49%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-10 13:44
PMU (FR)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.41%EV -6.06%E -3.67%K -9.32%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.73%EV -6.49%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -9.08%E -2.52%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-10 13:54
NetBet (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 57.16%EV -7.77%E -4.80%K -12.53%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.81%EV -7.38%E -1.42%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -6.56%E -1.77%K -2.43%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-10 13:59
Unibet (FR)1.61I 62.11%NM 57.31%EV -8.34%E -5.18%K -13.67%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.75%EV -7.38%E -1.42%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.94%EV -6.56%E -1.77%K -2.43%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-10 13:59
LeoVegas1.63I 61.35%NM 56.41%EV -7.20%E -4.42%K -11.43%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.68%EV -7.38%E -1.42%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.90%EV -10.35%E -2.91%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-10 13:54
Fliff1.61I 62.11%NM 56.82%EV -8.34%E -5.18%K -13.67%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 17.76%EV -8.27%E -1.61%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.41%EV -9.08%E -2.52%K -3.49%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-10 13:59
Betclic (FR)1.68I 59.52%NM 55.99%EV -4.35%E -2.59%K -6.40%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.44%EV -9.16%E -1.80%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.56%EV -7.06%E -1.92%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-10 13:46
betfred_uk1.67I 59.88%NM 56.20%EV -4.92%E -2.95%K -7.35%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -10.94%E -2.19%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -5.29%E -1.41%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-10 13:44
Ladbrokes (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.20%EV -4.92%E -2.95%K -7.35%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -10.94%E -2.19%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -5.29%E -1.41%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-10 13:45
Neds1.67I 59.88%NM 56.20%EV -4.92%E -2.95%K -7.35%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -10.94%E -2.19%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -5.29%E -1.41%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-10 13:45
Ladbrokes (AU)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.20%EV -4.92%E -2.95%K -7.35%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -10.94%E -2.19%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -5.29%E -1.41%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-10 13:45
Betr (AU)1.68I 59.52%NM 55.86%EV -4.35%E -2.59%K -6.40%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -10.94%E -2.19%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.37%EV -6.56%E -1.77%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-10 13:44
William Hill1.70I 58.82%NM 55.18%EV -3.21%E -1.89%K -4.59%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.76%EV -10.94%E -2.19%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -9.08%E -2.52%K -3.49%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-10 13:45
Winamax (DE)1.64I 60.98%NM 57.01%EV -6.63%E -4.04%K -10.36%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -10.94%E -2.19%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.29%EV -2.77%E -0.719%K -0.971%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-10 13:45
Bet Right1.66I 60.24%NM 55.97%EV -5.49%E -3.31%K -8.32%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%EV -10.94%E -2.19%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -7.82%E -2.14%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-10 13:45
Mr Green (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 55.62%EV -4.92%E -2.95%K -7.35%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%EV -10.94%E -2.19%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -9.08%E -2.52%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-10 13:59
PlayUp1.65I 60.61%NM 56.11%EV -6.06%E -3.67%K -9.32%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.52%EV -10.94%E -2.19%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.37%EV -7.82%E -2.14%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-10 13:59
TAB1.65I 60.61%NM 55.92%EV -6.06%E -3.67%K -9.32%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -10.94%E -2.19%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -9.08%E -2.52%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-10 13:54
BoyleSports1.62I 61.73%NM 56.95%EV -7.77%E -4.80%K -12.53%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -10.94%E -2.19%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -5.29%E -1.41%K -1.93%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-10 13:55
Virgin Bet1.65I 60.61%NM 55.72%EV -6.06%E -3.67%K -9.32%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.39%EV -10.94%E -2.19%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.90%EV -10.35%E -2.91%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-10 13:54
LiveScore Bet1.65I 60.61%NM 55.72%EV -6.06%E -3.67%K -9.32%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.39%EV -10.94%E -2.19%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.90%EV -10.35%E -2.91%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-10 13:55
Winamax (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 56.73%EV -7.77%E -4.80%K -12.53%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -12.72%E -2.60%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -5.29%E -1.41%K -1.93%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-10 13:44
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.71I 58.48%NM 58.21%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.59%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.20%0.5%2026-05-10 14:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.71I 58.48%NM 58.21%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.59%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.20%0.5%2026-05-10 14:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.71I 58.48%NM 58.21%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.59%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.20%0.5%2026-05-10 13:59
Matchbook1.71I 58.48%NM 58.21%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.59%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.20%0.5%2026-05-10 13:59
Smarkets1.70I 58.82%NM 58.17%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.48%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.35%1.1%2026-05-10 14:00
Kalshi1.72I 58.14%NM 56.94%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.62%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.44%2.1%2026-05-10 13:55