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Alavés v Valencia

2026-09-15 18:00 UTC — La Liga - Spain

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alavés (Local)

Prediction 42.57%2.35fair odd
EV -2.52%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -1.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.79%42.48%42.59%43.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.192.202.2948.78%45.63%45.45%43.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Valencia (Visit)

Prediction 27.33%3.66fair odd
EV -1.07%
Edge -0.295%
Kelly -0.408%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.71%27.33%27.37%28.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.383.403.6232.79%29.56%29.41%27.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.10%3.32fair odd
EV -0.361%
Edge -0.109%
Kelly -0.156%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.13%30.19%30.04%31.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.113.103.3133.90%32.13%32.26%30.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Alavés (Local): 42.57%; Valencia (Visit): 27.33%; Draw: 30.10%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.32. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.31, with an expected value of -0.361%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 43.02%EV -2.52%E -1.10%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 27.22%EV -1.07%E -0.295%K -0.408%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 29.76%EV -0.361%E -0.109%K -0.156%G +0.000%1.5%2026-09-06 10:50
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.29%EV -4.22%E -1.88%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -7.08%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.73%EV -3.67%E -1.15%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-06 10:05
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.29%EV -4.22%E -1.88%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -7.08%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.73%EV -3.67%E -1.15%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-06 11:24
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -4.22%E -1.88%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -4.35%E -1.24%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -9.69%E -3.23%K -4.85%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 11:24
Betsson🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.71%EV -5.50%E -2.48%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.71%EV -2.98%E -0.840%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -6.68%E -2.16%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-06 11:25
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.71%EV -5.50%E -2.48%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.71%EV -2.98%E -0.840%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -6.68%E -2.16%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-06 11:25
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -6.35%E -2.89%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -7.08%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -2.17%E -0.667%K -0.963%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-06 10:05
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -6.35%E -2.89%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -7.08%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -3.67%E -1.15%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-06 10:05
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -6.35%E -2.89%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -7.08%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -3.67%E -1.15%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-06 10:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -6.35%E -2.89%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -7.08%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -6.68%E -2.16%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-06 09:59
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -6.35%E -2.89%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -7.08%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -6.68%E -2.16%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-06 11:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -6.35%E -2.89%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -7.08%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -6.68%E -2.16%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-06 11:24
Sky Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -6.35%E -2.89%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -9.81%E -2.97%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -6.68%E -2.16%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-06 10:05
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -6.35%E -2.89%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -9.81%E -2.97%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -6.68%E -2.16%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-06 10:14
LeoVegas🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.10%EV -7.20%E -3.30%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -9.81%E -2.97%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -8.19%E -2.68%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-06 10:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.84%EV -8.48%E -3.94%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -9.81%E -2.97%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -5.18%E -1.64%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-06 10:55
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.40%EV -8.48%E -3.94%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.21%EV -8.45%E -2.52%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -9.69%E -3.23%K -4.85%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-06 11:24
Betclic (FR)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.80%EV -9.76%E -4.60%K -8.71%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 27.25%EV -8.99%E -2.70%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 29.95%EV -8.79%E -2.90%K -4.33%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-06 10:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -10.61%E -5.05%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -9.81%E -2.97%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -9.69%E -3.23%K -4.85%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-06 09:59
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.25%EV -12.73%E -6.21%K -12.13%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.40%EV -16.65%E -5.46%K -8.12%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.36%EV -11.20%E -3.80%K -5.74%G +0.000%15.5%2026-09-06 10:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.22I 45.05%NM 40.94%2.94I 34.01%NM 30.92%3.23I 30.96%NM 28.14%10.0%2026-09-06 13:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-09-06 10:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-09-06 10:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.06I 94.34%NM 33.33%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.33%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.33%183.0%2026-09-06 10:35