L’École des cotes

Alavés v CA Osasuna

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-04 16:30 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

43 opérateurs (14 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Alavés (Local)

Prévision 37.31%2.68cote équitable
EV +1.49%
Avantage +0.548%
Kelly +0.867%
Croissance +0.013%

avec la cote maximale 2.72

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
35.00%37.32%37.13%39.92%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.202.472.482.7245.45%40.44%40.32%36.76%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

CA Osasuna (Visiteur)

Prévision 31.94%3.13cote équitable
EV +2.51%
Avantage +0.783%
Kelly +1.14%
Croissance +0.029%

avec la cote maximale 3.21

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
30.05%31.89%32.03%33.15%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.552.963.003.2139.22%33.81%33.33%31.15%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 30.75%3.25cote équitable
EV -0.058%
Avantage -0.018%
Kelly -0.026%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.25

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
29.17%30.79%30.84%32.50%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.753.023.003.2536.36%33.13%33.33%30.77%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (43 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
1xBet2.52I 39.68%NM 39.06%EV -5.97%E -2.37%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 30.66%EV +2.51%E +0.783%K +1.14%G +0.029%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.28%EV -0.058%E -0.018%K -0.026%G +0.000%1.6%2026-03-23 07:24
Marathon Bet2.48I 40.32%NM 39.07%EV -7.46%E -3.01%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.66%EV +0.917%E +0.290%K +0.424%G +0.004%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.28%EV -1.60%E -0.499%K -0.725%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-23 07:15
Unibet (NL)2.55I 39.22%NM 37.99%EV -4.85%E -1.90%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.76%EV +0.597%E +0.190%K +0.278%G +0.002%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.25%EV -4.67%E -1.51%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-17 18:35
Unibet (SE)2.55I 39.22%NM 37.99%EV -4.85%E -1.90%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.76%EV +0.597%E +0.190%K +0.278%G +0.002%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.25%EV -4.67%E -1.51%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-17 18:35
ATG (SE)2.55I 39.22%NM 37.99%EV -4.85%E -1.90%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.76%EV +0.597%E +0.190%K +0.278%G +0.002%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.25%EV -4.67%E -1.51%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-17 18:35
Svenska Spel2.55I 39.22%NM 37.99%EV -4.85%E -1.90%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.76%EV +0.597%E +0.190%K +0.278%G +0.002%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.25%EV -4.67%E -1.51%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-17 18:35
LowVig.ag2.48I 40.32%NM 38.99%EV -7.46%E -3.01%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.99%EV -0.361%E -0.116%K -0.170%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 30.03%EV -0.980%E -0.304%K -0.442%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-22 19:50
BetOnline.ag2.48I 40.32%NM 38.99%EV -7.46%E -3.01%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.99%EV -0.361%E -0.116%K -0.170%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 30.03%EV -0.980%E -0.304%K -0.442%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-22 19:54
SportsBet2.37I 42.19%NM 39.92%EV -11.57%E -4.88%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.52%EV -0.999%E -0.322%K -0.476%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.56%EV -1.60%E -0.499%K -0.725%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-22 19:54
Casumo2.50I 40.00%NM 37.89%EV -6.72%E -2.69%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.06%EV -2.60%E -0.851%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.06%EV -6.21%E -2.04%K -3.03%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-16 14:10
Grosvenor2.50I 40.00%NM 37.89%EV -6.72%E -2.69%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.06%EV -2.60%E -0.851%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.06%EV -6.21%E -2.04%K -3.03%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-16 14:09
Bally Bet2.50I 40.00%NM 37.89%EV -6.72%E -2.69%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.06%EV -2.60%E -0.851%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.06%EV -6.21%E -2.04%K -3.03%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-16 14:10
betPARX2.50I 40.00%NM 37.89%EV -6.72%E -2.69%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.06%EV -2.60%E -0.851%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.06%EV -6.21%E -2.04%K -3.03%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-16 14:09
TABtouch2.48I 40.32%NM 37.88%EV -7.46%E -3.01%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.80%EV -2.60%E -0.851%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.32%EV -7.75%E -2.58%K -3.87%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-17 18:35
LeoVegas (SE)2.48I 40.32%NM 37.88%EV -7.46%E -3.01%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.80%EV -2.60%E -0.851%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.32%EV -7.75%E -2.58%K -3.87%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-17 18:35
Unibet2.48I 40.32%NM 37.88%EV -7.46%E -3.01%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.80%EV -2.60%E -0.851%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.32%EV -7.75%E -2.58%K -3.87%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-17 18:34
Codere (IT)2.49I 40.16%NM 38.16%EV -7.09%E -2.85%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.67%EV -4.19%E -1.40%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.17%EV -3.13%E -0.995%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-15 17:10
BetRivers2.48I 40.32%NM 37.69%EV -7.46%E -3.01%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.16%EV -4.19%E -1.40%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.16%EV -7.75%E -2.58%K -3.87%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-16 14:10
FanDuel2.35I 42.55%NM 39.72%EV -12.31%E -5.24%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -4.19%E -1.40%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -1.60%E -0.499%K -0.725%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-22 19:55
theScore Bet2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -10.45%E -4.35%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -4.19%E -1.40%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -4.67%E -1.51%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-22 19:55
Sky Bet2.38I 42.02%NM 39.05%EV -11.20%E -4.70%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -4.19%E -1.40%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -4.67%E -1.51%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-22 19:55
Paddy Power2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -14.18%E -6.17%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -4.19%E -1.40%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -4.67%E -1.51%K -2.22%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-22 19:54
Tipico (DE)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -2.99%E -1.15%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.90%EV -5.79%E -1.96%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.90%EV -9.28%E -3.15%K -4.76%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-20 17:18
LeoVegas2.43I 41.15%NM 37.77%EV -9.33%E -3.84%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.11%EV -5.79%E -1.96%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.11%EV -9.28%E -3.15%K -4.76%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-16 14:10
Pinnacle2.69I 37.17%NM 35.45%EV +0.372%E +0.138%K +0.220%G +0.001%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.44%EV -6.11%E -2.08%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 32.11%EV -8.67%E -2.92%K -4.40%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-17 16:40
Bovada2.68I 37.31%NM 35.42%EV -0.002%E -0.001%K -0.001%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.40%EV -6.43%E -2.19%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -9.28%E -3.15%K -4.76%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-17 19:30
Betsson2.72I 36.76%NM 35.16%EV +1.49%E +0.548%K +0.867%G +0.013%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.75%EV -6.75%E -2.31%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.09%EV -8.36%E -2.81%K -4.22%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-17 16:35
NordicBet2.72I 36.76%NM 35.16%EV +1.49%E +0.548%K +0.867%G +0.013%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.75%EV -6.75%E -2.31%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.09%EV -8.36%E -2.81%K -4.22%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-17 16:35
Virgin Bet2.38I 42.02%NM 37.78%EV -11.20%E -4.70%K -8.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.00%EV -7.39%E -2.55%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.22%EV -11.44%E -3.97%K -6.08%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-16 14:10
LiveScore Bet2.38I 42.02%NM 37.78%EV -11.20%E -4.70%K -8.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.00%EV -7.39%E -2.55%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.22%EV -11.44%E -3.97%K -6.08%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-16 14:10
Betway2.50I 40.00%NM 37.02%EV -6.72%E -2.69%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.13%EV -8.03%E -2.79%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -7.75%E -2.58%K -3.87%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-19 18:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 38.47%EV -16.05%E -7.13%K -12.84%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.05%EV -8.03%E -2.79%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.48%EV -15.43%E -5.61%K -8.82%G +0.000%15.5%2026-03-22 19:54
PMU (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 39.72%EV -17.91%E -8.14%K -14.93%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.66%EV -8.98%E -3.15%K -4.86%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.62%EV -9.28%E -3.15%K -4.76%G +0.000%14.4%2026-03-22 19:55
Winamax (DE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.34%EV -8.58%E -3.50%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.67%EV -10.58%E -3.78%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.99%EV -6.21%E -2.04%K -3.03%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-20 14:50
Unibet (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.49%EV -6.72%E -2.69%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.58%EV -10.58%E -3.78%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.93%EV -9.28%E -3.15%K -4.76%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-20 06:30
TAB2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -2.99%E -1.15%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.50%EV -10.58%E -3.78%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.50%EV -13.90%E -4.96%K -7.72%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-19 04:35
Parions Sport (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 38.45%EV -14.18%E -6.17%K -10.91%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.58%EV -10.58%E -3.78%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.97%EV -9.28%E -3.15%K -4.76%G +0.000%13.1%2026-03-20 16:35
Betclic (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 37.16%EV -10.45%E -4.35%K -7.46%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 32.08%EV -11.22%E -4.04%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.76%EV -10.82%E -3.73%K -5.70%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-19 16:06
Bet Victor2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -6.72%E -2.69%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -12.18%E -4.43%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -7.75%E -2.58%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-20 16:15
Fliff2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -6.72%E -2.69%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -12.18%E -4.43%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -7.75%E -2.58%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-21 06:00
BoyleSports2.50I 40.00%NM 36.09%EV -6.72%E -2.69%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -12.18%E -4.43%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -10.82%E -3.73%K -5.70%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-17 16:35
Unibet (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 36.82%EV -10.45%E -4.35%K -7.46%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 32.49%EV -13.13%E -4.83%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.69%EV -11.44%E -3.97%K -6.08%G +0.000%13.2%2026-03-20 16:49
Winamax (FR)2.25I 44.44%NM 37.23%EV -16.05%E -7.13%K -12.84%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 32.85%EV -18.56%E -7.28%K -11.98%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 29.92%EV -13.90%E -4.96%K -7.72%G +0.000%19.4%2026-03-20 14:50
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (4)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.66I 37.59%NM 36.37%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.72%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.91%3.4%2026-03-23 05:59
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.66I 37.59%NM 36.37%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.72%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.91%3.4%2026-03-23 06:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.66I 37.59%NM 36.37%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.72%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.91%3.4%2026-03-23 05:59
Smarkets2.56I 39.06%NM 27.49%1.48I 67.57%NM 47.55%2.82I 35.46%NM 24.96%42.1%2026-03-23 06:29