The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Llanera v SD Ponferradina

Kickoff: 2026-10-27 19:00 UTC

Final: Llanera 1–1 SD Ponferradina

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Llanera (Local)

Prediction 19.96%5.01fair odd
EV -3.01%
Edge -0.619%
Kelly -0.779%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.25%20.10%19.88%21.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.584.604.8623.81%21.84%21.74%20.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SD Ponferradina (Visit)

Prediction 54.30%1.84fair odd
EV -6.07%
Edge -3.51%
Kelly -8.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.62%54.29%54.11%56.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.581.661.661.7363.29%60.16%60.24%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.75%3.88fair odd
EV +5.56%
Edge +1.36%
Kelly +1.79%
Growth +0.100%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.68%25.61%26.00%26.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.813.804.1028.57%26.26%26.32%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Llanera (Local): 19.96%; SD Ponferradina (Visit): 54.30%; Draw: 25.75%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.88. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.56%.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Unibet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.30%EV -8.20%E -1.78%K -2.28%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.93%EV -10.95%E -6.68%K -17.11%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV +5.56%E +1.36%K +1.79%G +0.100%7.1%2026-10-27 18:32
Svenska Spel🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.30%EV -8.20%E -1.78%K -2.28%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.93%EV -10.95%E -6.68%K -17.11%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV +5.56%E +1.36%K +1.79%G +0.100%7.1%2026-10-27 18:18
ATG (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.30%EV -8.20%E -1.78%K -2.28%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.93%EV -10.95%E -6.68%K -17.11%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV +5.56%E +1.36%K +1.79%G +0.100%7.1%2026-10-27 18:18
Unibet (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.30%EV -8.20%E -1.78%K -2.28%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.93%EV -10.95%E -6.68%K -17.11%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV +5.56%E +1.36%K +1.79%G +0.100%7.1%2026-10-27 18:18
Sky Bet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.61%EV -10.19%E -2.26%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.21%EV -10.41%E -6.31%K -16.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV +2.98%E +0.746%K +0.995%G +0.030%7.8%2026-10-27 18:37
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.62%EV -12.19%E -2.77%K -3.58%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.70%EV -13.13%E -8.20%K -21.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.68%EV +2.98%E +0.746%K +0.995%G +0.030%10.2%2026-10-27 18:05
Grosvenor🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 20.75%EV -13.19%E -3.03%K -3.94%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.41%EV -13.13%E -8.20%K -21.88%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.85%EV +1.70%E +0.429%K +0.575%G +0.010%10.8%2026-10-27 18:18
LiveScore Bet🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 20.60%EV -13.19%E -3.03%K -3.94%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 56.71%EV -14.21%E -8.99%K -24.50%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.69%EV +1.70%E +0.429%K +0.575%G +0.010%11.6%2026-10-27 18:18
Virgin Bet🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 20.60%EV -13.19%E -3.03%K -3.94%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 56.71%EV -14.21%E -8.99%K -24.50%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.69%EV +1.70%E +0.429%K +0.575%G +0.010%11.6%2026-10-27 18:18
SportsBet🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.52%EV -4.20%E -0.876%K -1.11%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.45%EV -9.87%E -5.94%K -14.95%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV +0.409%E +0.105%K +0.141%G +0.001%6.7%2026-10-27 17:35
Coral🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.85%EV -4.20%E -0.876%K -1.11%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.08%EV -6.07%E -3.51%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.07%EV -2.17%E -0.570%K -0.773%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-27 18:55
BetMGM🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.89%EV -5.20%E -1.10%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.25%EV -7.15%E -4.18%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.86%EV -2.17%E -0.570%K -0.773%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-27 18:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -8.20%E -1.78%K -2.28%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.04%EV -7.70%E -4.53%K -10.99%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -2.17%E -0.570%K -0.773%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-27 18:55
Paddy Power🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -5.20%E -1.10%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.83%EV -9.32%E -5.58%K -13.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -2.17%E -0.570%K -0.773%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-27 17:20
Winamax (DE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.66%EV -12.19%E -2.77%K -3.58%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 55.42%EV -10.95%E -6.68%K -17.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -2.17%E -0.570%K -0.773%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-27 18:55
1xBet🎯4.86I 20.58%NM 19.25%EV -3.01%E -0.619%K -0.779%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.04%EV -7.70%E -4.53%K -10.99%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.71%EV -6.28%E -1.73%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-27 18:55
Betway🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -5.20%E -1.10%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.21%EV -6.07%E -3.51%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -7.31%E -2.03%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-27 18:50
betano_uk🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -8.20%E -1.78%K -2.28%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.74%EV -9.32%E -5.58%K -13.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -7.31%E -2.03%K -2.81%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-27 18:54
BoyleSports🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.01%EV -16.18%E -3.85%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 54.47%EV -12.04%E -7.43%K -19.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.51%EV -7.31%E -2.03%K -2.81%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-27 18:25
Pinnacle🎯4.65I 21.51%NM 19.95%EV -7.20%E -1.55%K -1.97%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.07%E -3.51%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 26.43%EV -9.63%E -2.74%K -3.84%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-27 18:55
888sport🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92%EV -8.20%E -1.78%K -2.28%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%EV -7.70%E -4.53%K -10.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -9.89%E -2.83%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-27 18:55
888sport (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92%EV -8.20%E -1.78%K -2.28%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%EV -7.70%E -4.53%K -10.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -9.89%E -2.83%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-27 18:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92%EV -8.20%E -1.78%K -2.28%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%EV -7.70%E -4.53%K -10.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -9.89%E -2.83%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-27 18:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.90I 20.41%NM 19.90%1.76I 56.82%NM 55.41%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.69%2.5%2026-10-27 18:55