The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Don Benito v Extremadura

Kickoff: 2026-10-27 19:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Don Benito (Local)

Prediction 25.11%3.98fair odd
EV -4.58%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -1.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.93%24.75%25.40%26.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.683.703.8028.99%27.19%27.03%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Extremadura (Visit)

Prediction 48.92%2.04fair odd
EV -4.61%
Edge -2.37%
Kelly -4.86%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.79%49.33%49.00%52.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.861.871.9559.88%53.88%53.48%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.97%3.85fair odd
EV -1.30%
Edge -0.343%
Kelly -0.465%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.62%25.92%25.59%26.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.513.403.8029.41%28.50%29.41%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Don Benito (Local): 25.11%; Extremadura (Visit): 48.92%; Draw: 25.97%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.85. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.80, with an expected value of -1.30%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Paddy Power🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV -4.58%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.32%EV -7.06%E -3.72%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -6.50%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-27 17:20
SportsBet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV -4.58%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.32%EV -7.06%E -3.72%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -6.50%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-27 17:35
Pinnacle🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.40%EV -4.58%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.80%EV -7.06%E -3.72%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 26.80%EV -10.13%E -2.93%K -4.12%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-27 19:15
Tipico (DE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 22.93%EV -4.58%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 52.18%EV -18.31%E -10.96%K -27.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.90%EV -9.09%E -2.60%K -3.64%G +0.000%14.8%2026-10-27 19:25
1xBet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -5.83%E -1.56%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.68%EV -6.08%E -3.17%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.40%EV -8.06%E -2.28%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-27 17:30
Coral🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.66%EV -7.09%E -1.92%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.61%E -2.37%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.66%EV -3.90%E -1.05%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-27 18:50
BetMGM🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.53%EV -7.09%E -1.92%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -5.59%E -2.90%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.53%EV -3.90%E -1.05%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-27 18:50
Sky Bet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV -7.09%E -1.92%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.06%EV -8.53%E -4.56%K -9.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.64%EV -1.30%E -0.343%K -0.465%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-27 18:37
Unibet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.20%EV -7.09%E -1.92%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 49.47%EV -11.46%E -6.33%K -14.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.33%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-27 18:45
LiveScore Bet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.20%EV -7.09%E -1.92%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 49.47%EV -11.46%E -6.33%K -14.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.33%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-27 18:45
Svenska Spel🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.20%EV -7.09%E -1.92%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 49.47%EV -11.46%E -6.33%K -14.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.33%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-27 18:45
Virgin Bet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.20%EV -7.09%E -1.92%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 49.47%EV -11.46%E -6.33%K -14.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.33%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-27 18:45
Grosvenor🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.20%EV -7.09%E -1.92%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 49.47%EV -11.46%E -6.33%K -14.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.33%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-27 18:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.20%EV -7.09%E -1.92%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 49.47%EV -11.46%E -6.33%K -14.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.33%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-27 18:45
ATG (SE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.20%EV -7.09%E -1.92%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 49.47%EV -11.46%E -6.33%K -14.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.33%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-27 18:45
Unibet (SE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.20%EV -7.09%E -1.92%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 49.47%EV -11.46%E -6.33%K -14.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.33%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-27 18:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -9.60%E -2.67%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -4.61%E -2.37%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -3.90%E -1.05%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-27 18:50
Unibet (UK)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -9.60%E -2.67%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.91%EV -8.04%E -4.28%K -9.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -6.50%E -1.80%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-27 19:15
888sport🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -9.60%E -2.67%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -6.57%E -3.44%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-27 18:50
888sport (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -9.60%E -2.67%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -6.57%E -3.44%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-27 18:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -9.60%E -2.67%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -6.57%E -3.44%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-27 18:50
BoyleSports🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 24.82%EV -12.11%E -3.46%K -4.84%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 49.64%EV -14.40%E -8.23%K -19.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.55%EV -11.69%E -3.44%K -4.87%G +0.000%15.1%2026-10-27 19:24
Winamax (DE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.40%EV -13.37%E -3.87%K -5.46%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 48.98%EV -9.02%E -4.85%K -10.48%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.62%EV -3.90%E -1.05%K -1.44%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-27 18:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.61%1.99I 50.25%NM 49.48%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.91%1.6%2026-10-27 19:25