Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

CDA Navalcarnero v Real Betis

2026-10-28 20:00 UTC — Copa del Rey

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

CDA Navalcarnero (Local)

Prediction 5.59%17.90fair odd
EV +11.73%
Edge +0.586%
Kelly +0.617%
Growth +0.072%

assuming max odds 20.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.72%5.73%5.56%7.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
11.8815.4816.0020.008.42%6.46%6.25%5.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Real Betis (Visit)

Prediction 84.27%1.19fair odd
EV -3.94%
Edge -3.45%
Kelly -28.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
82.14%84.30%84.30%86.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.101.101.1499.01%91.14%90.91%87.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 10.15%9.85fair odd
EV +21.78%
Edge +1.82%
Kelly +1.98%
Growth +0.431%

assuming max odds 12.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.93%9.97%10.14%11.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.009.139.0012.0012.50%10.95%11.11%8.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: CDA Navalcarnero (Local): 5.59%; Real Betis (Visit): 84.27%; Draw: 10.15%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.85. 5 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 12.00, producing a positive expected value of +21.78%.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Betway🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.60%EV -5.03%E -0.296%K -0.315%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 86.48%EV -7.31%E -6.64%K -73.08%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.93%EV +21.78%E +1.82%K +1.98%G +0.431%5.1%2026-10-28 04:05
Sky Bet🎯18.00I 5.56%NM 5.18%EV +0.553%E +0.031%K +0.033%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 86.34%EV -8.99%E -8.33%K -112.42%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.48%EV +11.63%E +1.06%K +1.16%G +0.135%7.2%2026-10-28 04:35
Paddy Power🎯20.00I 5.00%NM 4.72%EV +11.73%E +0.586%K +0.617%G +0.072%1.10I 90.91%NM 85.84%EV -7.31%E -6.64%K -73.08%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.44%EV +1.48%E +0.148%K +0.165%G +0.002%5.9%2026-10-28 04:09
Tipico (DE)🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.12%EV -5.03%E -0.296%K -0.315%G +0.000%1.01I 99.01%NM 86.18%EV -14.89%E -14.74%K -1489.21%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.70%EV +1.48%E +0.148%K +0.165%G +0.002%14.9%2026-10-28 04:05
1xBet🎯18.00I 5.56%NM 5.17%EV +0.553%E +0.031%K +0.033%G +0.000%1.09I 91.74%NM 85.42%EV -8.15%E -7.48%K -90.57%G +0.000%9.90I 10.10%NM 9.41%EV +0.470%E +0.047%K +0.053%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-28 04:05
BetMGM🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 6.00%EV -10.62%E -0.664%K -0.708%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 84.16%EV -3.94%E -3.45%K -28.13%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.84%EV -1.05%E -0.108%K -0.120%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-28 04:10
SportsBet🎯19.00I 5.26%NM 4.91%EV +6.14%E +0.323%K +0.341%G +0.021%1.09I 91.74%NM 85.53%EV -8.15%E -7.48%K -90.57%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.56%EV -1.05%E -0.108%K -0.120%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-28 04:10
Coral🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -16.21%E -1.08%K -1.16%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 83.73%EV -4.78%E -4.23%K -36.77%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.96%EV -3.59%E -0.378%K -0.422%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-28 04:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -16.21%E -1.08%K -1.16%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 83.73%EV -4.78%E -4.23%K -36.77%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.96%EV -3.59%E -0.378%K -0.422%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-28 04:05
Pinnacle🎯11.88I 8.42%NM 7.40%EV -33.64%E -2.83%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.06I 94.34%NM 82.95%EV -10.68%E -10.07%K -177.98%G +0.000%9.11I 10.98%NM 9.65%EV -7.55%E -0.828%K -0.931%G +0.000%13.7%2026-10-28 04:05
888sport🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.49%EV -5.03%E -0.296%K -0.315%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 84.13%EV -6.47%E -5.82%K -58.78%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV -8.66%E -0.963%K -1.08%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-28 04:04
888sport (SE)🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.49%EV -5.03%E -0.296%K -0.315%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 84.13%EV -6.47%E -5.82%K -58.78%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV -8.66%E -0.963%K -1.08%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-28 04:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.49%EV -5.03%E -0.296%K -0.315%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 84.13%EV -6.47%E -5.82%K -58.78%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV -8.66%E -0.963%K -1.08%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-28 04:04
Codere (IT)🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.48%EV -5.03%E -0.296%K -0.315%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 83.93%EV -6.47%E -5.82%K -58.78%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.59%EV -10.69%E -1.22%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-28 04:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.23%EV -30.17%E -2.41%K -2.62%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 82.14%EV -7.31%E -6.64%K -73.08%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.63%EV -13.74%E -1.62%K -1.83%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-28 04:05
LiveScore Bet🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.23%EV -30.17%E -2.41%K -2.62%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 82.14%EV -7.31%E -6.64%K -73.08%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.63%EV -13.74%E -1.62%K -1.83%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-28 04:05
Unibet (SE)🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.23%EV -30.17%E -2.41%K -2.62%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 82.14%EV -7.31%E -6.64%K -73.08%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.63%EV -13.74%E -1.62%K -1.83%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-28 04:05
Virgin Bet🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.23%EV -30.17%E -2.41%K -2.62%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 82.14%EV -7.31%E -6.64%K -73.08%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.63%EV -13.74%E -1.62%K -1.83%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-28 04:04
Grosvenor🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.23%EV -30.17%E -2.41%K -2.62%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 82.14%EV -7.31%E -6.64%K -73.08%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.63%EV -13.74%E -1.62%K -1.83%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-28 04:04
Unibet🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.23%EV -30.17%E -2.41%K -2.62%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 82.14%EV -7.31%E -6.64%K -73.08%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.63%EV -13.74%E -1.62%K -1.83%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-28 04:04
ATG (SE)🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.23%EV -30.17%E -2.41%K -2.62%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 82.14%EV -7.31%E -6.64%K -73.08%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.63%EV -13.74%E -1.62%K -1.83%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-28 04:05
Svenska Spel🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.23%EV -30.17%E -2.41%K -2.62%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 82.14%EV -7.31%E -6.64%K -73.08%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.63%EV -13.74%E -1.62%K -1.83%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-28 04:04
Unibet (UK)🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.70%EV -10.62%E -0.664%K -0.708%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 82.90%EV -7.31%E -6.64%K -73.08%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.40%EV -18.81%E -2.35%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-28 04:25
Bet Victor🎯18.00I 5.56%NM 5.02%EV +0.553%E +0.031%K +0.033%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 83.68%EV -8.99%E -8.33%K -112.42%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.30%EV -18.81%E -2.35%K -2.69%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-28 04:29
betano_uk🎯18.00I 5.56%NM 5.02%EV +0.553%E +0.031%K +0.033%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 83.68%EV -8.99%E -8.33%K -112.42%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.30%EV -18.81%E -2.35%K -2.69%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-28 04:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎24.00I 4.17%NM 4.08%1.12I 89.29%NM 87.41%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.51%2.1%2026-10-28 04:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎24.00I 4.17%NM 4.08%1.12I 89.29%NM 87.41%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.51%2.1%2026-10-28 04:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎18.50I 5.41%NM 5.21%1.12I 89.29%NM 86.03%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.76%3.8%2026-10-28 04:05