Language:English
Castellonense v Almería
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Castellonense (Local)
Prediction 15.90%6.29fair odd
EV -0.130%
Edge -0.021%
Kelly -0.025%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 6.28
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.88%15.93%15.90%16.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.405.905.926.2818.52%16.96%16.89%15.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Almería (Visit)
Prediction 61.75%1.62fair odd
EV -5.52%
Edge -3.61%
Kelly -10.41%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.53
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.95%61.72%61.96%65.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.461.461.5372.46%68.47%68.49%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 22.34%4.48fair odd
EV +7.25%
Edge +1.51%
Kelly +1.91%
Growth +0.138%
assuming max odds 4.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.44%22.35%22.14%23.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.364.334.8026.32%22.95%23.09%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Castellonense (Local): 15.90%; Almería (Visit): 61.75%; Draw: 22.34%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.48. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.25%.
Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet🎯 | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.30%EV -2.99%E -0.491%K -0.587%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.26%EV -11.69%E -8.18%K -27.19%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.44%EV +7.25%E +1.51%K +1.91%G +0.138% | 7.2% | 2026-10-27 17:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.30%EV -2.99%E -0.491%K -0.587%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.26%EV -11.69%E -8.18%K -27.19%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.44%EV +7.25%E +1.51%K +1.91%G +0.138% | 7.2% | 2026-10-27 17:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.30%EV -2.99%E -0.491%K -0.587%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.26%EV -11.69%E -8.18%K -27.19%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.44%EV +7.25%E +1.51%K +1.91%G +0.138% | 7.2% | 2026-10-27 18:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.30%EV -2.99%E -0.491%K -0.587%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.26%EV -11.69%E -8.18%K -27.19%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.44%EV +7.25%E +1.51%K +1.91%G +0.138% | 7.2% | 2026-10-27 18:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.62%EV -7.76%E -1.34%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.69%EV -13.54%E -9.67%K -33.86%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.69%EV +2.78%E +0.604%K +0.772%G +0.021% | 10.4% | 2026-10-27 18:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.62%EV -7.76%E -1.34%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.69%EV -13.54%E -9.67%K -33.86%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.69%EV +2.78%E +0.604%K +0.772%G +0.021% | 10.4% | 2026-10-27 18:05 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -4.58%E -0.764%K -0.917%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.10%EV -11.07%E -7.69%K -25.17%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV +0.545%E +0.121%K +0.156%G +0.001% | 8.3% | 2026-10-27 18:37 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.52%EV -8.56%E -1.49%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 64.66%EV -14.78%E -10.71%K -38.89%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.83%EV +0.545%E +0.121%K +0.156%G +0.001% | 12.1% | 2026-10-27 17:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.52%EV -8.56%E -1.49%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 64.66%EV -14.78%E -10.71%K -38.89%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.83%EV +0.545%E +0.121%K +0.156%G +0.001% | 12.1% | 2026-10-27 18:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -4.58%E -0.764%K -0.917%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.18%EV -5.52%E -3.61%K -10.41%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.97%EV -3.25%E -0.751%K -0.977%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-27 18:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -4.58%E -0.764%K -0.917%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.18%EV -5.52%E -3.61%K -10.41%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.97%EV -3.25%E -0.751%K -0.977%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-27 18:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -4.58%E -0.764%K -0.917%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.64%EV -7.37%E -4.91%K -14.74%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -3.25%E -0.751%K -0.977%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-27 18:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -8.56%E -1.49%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -7.37%E -4.91%K -14.74%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.55%EV -3.25%E -0.751%K -0.977%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-27 18:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.26%EV -4.58%E -0.764%K -0.917%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.59%EV -11.07%E -7.69%K -25.17%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.15%EV -3.25%E -0.751%K -0.977%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-27 18:18 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.98%EV -0.607%E -0.097%K -0.116%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.25%EV -8.60%E -5.81%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.77%EV -3.92%E -0.912%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-27 18:17 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.79%EV -14.12%E -2.62%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 62.12%EV -9.84%E -6.74%K -21.39%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.09%EV -3.92%E -0.912%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-10-27 18:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 5.92I 16.89%NM 15.64%EV -5.85%E -0.989%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.15%EV -7.99%E -5.36%K -16.30%G +0.000% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 22.21%EV -6.83%E -1.64%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-27 18:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 6.28I 15.92%NM 14.88%EV -0.130%E -0.021%K -0.025%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.32%EV -7.37%E -4.91%K -14.74%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -8.39%E -2.05%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-27 18:18 |
| 888sport🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -8.56%E -1.49%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.13%EV -7.37%E -4.91%K -14.74%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -10.63%E -2.66%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-27 18:18 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -8.56%E -1.49%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.13%EV -7.37%E -4.91%K -14.74%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -10.63%E -2.66%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-27 18:18 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -8.56%E -1.49%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.13%EV -7.37%E -4.91%K -14.74%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -10.63%E -2.66%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-27 18:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -8.56%E -1.49%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.13%EV -7.37%E -4.91%K -14.74%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -10.63%E -2.66%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-27 18:18 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 15.96%EV -12.53%E -2.28%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.95%EV -11.07%E -7.69%K -25.17%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.10%EV -15.10%E -3.97%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-10-27 18:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.86% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.86% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.29% | 2.0% | 2026-10-27 18:37 |