The School of Odds
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Neom v Al-Taawoun

Kickoff: 2026-03-12 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Neom (Local)

Prediction 38.71%2.58fair odd
EV -0.138%
Edge -0.054%
Kelly -0.088%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.78%38.83%38.76%41.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.162.312.302.5846.30%43.22%43.48%38.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Taawoun (Visit)

Prediction 34.06%2.94fair odd
EV +0.483%
Edge +0.164%
Kelly +0.248%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.21%33.87%34.04%35.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.752.752.9540.00%36.37%36.36%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.23%3.67fair odd
EV -3.33%
Edge -0.937%
Kelly -1.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.59%27.30%27.20%29.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.293.353.5534.72%30.35%29.85%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Neom (Local): 38.71%; Al-Taawoun (Visit): 34.06%; Draw: 27.23%. For Al-Taawoun (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.94. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.483%.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.08%EV -12.91%E -5.74%K -10.33%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV +0.483%E +0.164%K +0.248%G +0.001%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.59%EV -8.77%E -2.62%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-12 18:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.08%EV -12.91%E -5.74%K -10.33%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV +0.483%E +0.164%K +0.248%G +0.001%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.59%EV -8.77%E -2.62%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-12 18:35
Unibet (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.08%EV -12.91%E -5.74%K -10.33%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV +0.483%E +0.164%K +0.248%G +0.001%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.59%EV -8.77%E -2.62%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-12 18:35
Grosvenor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.08%EV -12.91%E -5.74%K -10.33%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV +0.483%E +0.164%K +0.248%G +0.001%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.59%EV -8.77%E -2.62%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-12 18:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.08%EV -12.91%E -5.74%K -10.33%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV +0.483%E +0.164%K +0.248%G +0.001%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.59%EV -8.77%E -2.62%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-12 18:35
ATG (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.08%EV -12.91%E -5.74%K -10.33%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV +0.483%E +0.164%K +0.248%G +0.001%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.59%EV -8.77%E -2.62%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-12 18:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.90%EV -13.69%E -6.14%K -11.13%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.45%EV -1.22%E -0.421%K -0.642%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.64%EV -10.13%E -3.07%K -4.41%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-12 18:35
LeoVegas🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.90%EV -13.69%E -6.14%K -11.13%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.45%EV -1.22%E -0.421%K -0.642%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.64%EV -10.13%E -3.07%K -4.41%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-12 18:35
Unibet (FR)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 41.72%EV -16.40%E -7.59%K -14.13%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.62%EV -2.92%E -1.03%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 26.66%EV -7.96%E -2.35%K -3.34%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-12 18:45
LiveScore Bet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 40.99%EV -16.01%E -7.38%K -13.68%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.21%EV -2.92%E -1.03%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.80%EV -12.86%E -4.02%K -5.84%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-12 18:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 40.99%EV -16.01%E -7.38%K -13.68%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.21%EV -2.92%E -1.03%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.80%EV -12.86%E -4.02%K -5.84%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-12 18:35
1xBet🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 37.62%EV -0.138%E -0.054%K -0.088%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.42%EV -3.94%E -1.40%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.97%EV -5.51%E -1.59%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-12 18:50
Pinnacle🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 38.60%EV -4.40%E -1.78%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.54%EV -5.99%E -2.17%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.86%EV -3.33%E -0.937%K -1.30%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-12 18:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.82%EV -7.88%E -3.31%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.60%EV -6.33%E -2.30%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.58%EV -8.77%E -2.62%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-12 18:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 40.22%EV -14.07%E -6.34%K -11.53%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.47%EV -6.33%E -2.30%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 27.31%EV -10.95%E -3.35%K -4.82%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-12 18:54
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.88%EV -3.23%E -1.29%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.07%EV -8.03%E -2.97%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.05%EV -4.69%E -1.34%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-12 18:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.58%EV -3.23%E -1.29%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -8.03%E -2.97%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -7.41%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-12 18:55
Tipico (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.29%EV -7.11%E -2.96%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.68%EV -9.74%E -3.67%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -7.41%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-12 18:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.30%EV -10.98%E -4.77%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.11%EV -9.74%E -3.67%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -7.41%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-12 18:55
SportsBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.83%EV -7.11%E -2.96%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.65%EV -10.76%E -4.11%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -10.13%E -3.07%K -4.41%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-12 18:55
Paddy Power🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.03%EV -7.88%E -3.31%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.54%EV -10.76%E -4.11%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -10.13%E -3.07%K -4.41%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-12 18:55
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.17%EV -10.98%E -4.77%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.51%EV -10.76%E -4.11%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.32%EV -15.58%E -5.03%K -7.42%G +0.000%13.9%2026-03-12 18:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.17%EV -10.98%E -4.77%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.51%EV -10.76%E -4.11%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.32%EV -15.58%E -5.03%K -7.42%G +0.000%13.9%2026-03-12 18:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.17%EV -10.98%E -4.77%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.51%EV -10.76%E -4.11%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.32%EV -15.58%E -5.03%K -7.42%G +0.000%13.9%2026-03-12 18:50
Sky Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.77%EV -7.88%E -3.31%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.57%EV -11.44%E -4.40%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.66%EV -11.50%E -3.54%K -5.11%G +0.000%11.2%2026-03-12 18:55
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.89%EV -10.98%E -4.77%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.41%EV -11.44%E -4.40%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.70%EV -8.77%E -2.62%K -3.73%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-12 18:55
William Hill🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.27%EV -7.88%E -3.31%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.12%EV -11.44%E -4.40%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.61%EV -15.58%E -5.03%K -7.42%G +0.000%12.7%2026-03-12 18:55
BoyleSports🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.58%EV -12.91%E -5.74%K -10.33%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.72%EV -14.84%E -5.94%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.71%EV -11.50%E -3.54%K -5.11%G +0.000%15.2%2026-03-12 18:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 36.78%EV -10.98%E -4.77%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 33.84%EV -14.84%E -5.94%K -9.90%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.38%EV -21.57%E -7.49%K -11.47%G +0.000%18.2%2026-03-12 18:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.79%2.92I 34.25%NM 34.01%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.21%0.7%2026-03-12 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.64%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.88%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.48%1.1%2026-03-12 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.64%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.88%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.48%1.1%2026-03-12 18:55
Kalshi◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.28%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.27%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.45%2.0%2026-03-12 18:55
Smarkets◎2.54I 39.37%NM 38.50%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.95%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.55%2.3%2026-03-12 18:55