Language:English
Neom v Al-Fateh
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Neom (Local)
Prediction 57.58%1.74fair odd
EV -4.42%
Edge -2.67%
Kelly -6.70%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.66
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.70%57.55%57.59%59.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.571.561.6667.57%63.72%64.10%60.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Al-Fateh (Visit)
Prediction 19.22%5.20fair odd
EV +3.01%
Edge +0.562%
Kelly +0.691%
Growth +0.021%
assuming max odds 5.36
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.92%19.28%19.27%21.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.674.705.3625.00%21.39%21.28%18.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 23.21%4.31fair odd
EV -2.54%
Edge -0.604%
Kelly -0.792%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.90%23.17%23.15%24.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.903.904.2027.78%25.65%25.64%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Neom (Local): 57.58%; Al-Fateh (Visit): 19.22%; Draw: 23.21%. For Al-Fateh (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.20. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.36, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.01%.
Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.88%EV -4.42%E -2.67%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 5.36I 18.66%NM 17.92%EV +3.01%E +0.562%K +0.691%G +0.021% | 3.97I 25.19%NM 24.20%EV -7.87%E -1.98%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-13 16:11 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.13%EV -4.42%E -2.67%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 5.03I 19.88%NM 18.86%EV -3.33%E -0.662%K -0.826%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.01%EV -8.34%E -2.11%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-13 15:56 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.33%EV -10.76%E -6.94%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.77%EV -5.83%E -1.19%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.90%EV -2.54%E -0.604%K -0.792%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-13 15:25 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%EV -5.00%E -3.03%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.79%EV -7.75%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.62%EV -2.54%E -0.604%K -0.792%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-13 15:31 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%EV -5.00%E -3.03%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.79%EV -7.75%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.62%EV -2.54%E -0.604%K -0.792%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-13 15:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 57.97%EV -10.18%E -6.53%K -18.18%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.84%EV -7.75%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.19%EV -9.50%E -2.44%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-13 15:26 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 57.97%EV -10.18%E -6.53%K -18.18%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.84%EV -7.75%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.19%EV -9.50%E -2.44%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-13 15:26 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 57.97%EV -10.18%E -6.53%K -18.18%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.84%EV -7.75%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.19%EV -9.50%E -2.44%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-13 15:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 57.97%EV -10.18%E -6.53%K -18.18%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.84%EV -7.75%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.19%EV -9.50%E -2.44%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-13 15:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 57.97%EV -10.18%E -6.53%K -18.18%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.84%EV -7.75%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.19%EV -9.50%E -2.44%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-13 15:26 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 57.97%EV -10.18%E -6.53%K -18.18%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.84%EV -7.75%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.19%EV -9.50%E -2.44%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-13 15:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.27%EV -6.73%E -4.15%K -10.85%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.53%EV -8.71%E -1.83%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -7.18%E -1.79%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-13 15:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.24%EV -9.61%E -6.12%K -16.85%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.46%EV -9.67%E -2.06%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.30%EV -4.86%E -1.18%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-13 15:31 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 57.88%EV -11.33%E -7.36%K -20.99%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.97%EV -9.67%E -2.06%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.15%EV -10.66%E -2.77%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-13 16:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 57.88%EV -11.33%E -7.36%K -20.99%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.97%EV -9.67%E -2.06%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.15%EV -10.66%E -2.77%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-13 16:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.04%EV -11.91%E -7.78%K -22.47%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.89%EV -9.67%E -2.06%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.07%EV -10.66%E -2.77%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-09-13 15:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.21%EV -7.88%E -4.92%K -13.13%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -11.59%E -2.52%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.89%EV -7.18%E -1.79%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-13 15:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.99%EV -10.76%E -6.94%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.54%EV -11.59%E -2.52%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.47%EV -7.18%E -1.79%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-13 16:06 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.26%EV -9.61%E -6.12%K -16.85%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.20%EV -11.59%E -2.52%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.54%EV -16.46%E -4.57%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-09-13 16:15 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.26%EV -9.61%E -6.12%K -16.85%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.20%EV -11.59%E -2.52%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.54%EV -16.46%E -4.57%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-09-13 16:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.26%EV -9.61%E -6.12%K -16.85%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.20%EV -11.59%E -2.52%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.54%EV -16.46%E -4.57%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-09-13 16:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.26%EV -9.61%E -6.12%K -16.85%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.20%EV -11.59%E -2.52%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.54%EV -16.46%E -4.57%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-09-13 16:15 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 58.12%EV -13.06%E -8.65%K -25.61%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.08%EV -11.59%E -2.52%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 22.80%EV -10.66%E -2.77%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-09-13 15:53 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 57.67%EV -12.49%E -8.21%K -24.01%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 19.26%EV -12.56%E -2.76%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.07%EV -11.82%E -3.11%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-09-13 15:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 57.27%EV -9.03%E -5.72%K -15.57%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.11%EV -13.52%E -3.00%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.62%EV -7.18%E -1.79%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-13 15:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.43%EV -9.61%E -6.12%K -16.85%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.04%EV -13.52%E -3.00%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.54%EV -7.18%E -1.79%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-13 15:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 57.84%EV -14.79%E -9.99%K -30.81%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.02%EV -13.52%E -3.00%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.14%EV -14.14%E -3.82%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 16.8% | 2026-09-13 15:26 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 57.16%EV -10.18%E -6.53%K -18.18%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.27%EV -15.44%E -3.51%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.57%EV -8.34%E -2.11%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-13 15:26 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 56.97%EV -10.76%E -6.94%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.39%EV -16.78%E -3.88%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.64%EV -9.50%E -2.44%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-09-13 15:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 55.70%EV -10.76%E -6.94%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.58%EV -23.13%E -5.78%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 22.72%EV -11.82%E -3.11%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 15.8% | 2026-09-13 15:31 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.21% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.92% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.88% | 1.7% | 2026-09-13 16:11 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.21% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.92% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.88% | 1.7% | 2026-09-13 16:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.21% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.92% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.88% | 1.7% | 2026-09-13 16:15 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.78% | 5.26I 19.01%NM 18.66% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.56% | 1.9% | 2026-09-13 16:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.85% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.58% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.57% | 3.5% | 2026-09-13 16:11 |