The School of Odds
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Damac v Al-Khaleej

Kickoff: 2026-05-02 16:10 UTC

Final: Damac 0–2 Al-Khaleej

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Damac (Local)

Prediction 35.02%2.86fair odd
EV -0.186%
Edge -0.065%
Kelly -0.101%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.26%34.94%35.02%36.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.672.692.8541.67%37.42%37.17%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Khaleej (Visit)

Prediction 36.88%2.71fair odd
EV -2.63%
Edge -0.997%
Kelly -1.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.69%36.87%36.92%39.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.232.392.402.6444.84%41.87%41.67%37.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.10%3.56fair odd
EV +3.67%
Edge +0.996%
Kelly +1.37%
Growth +0.050%

assuming max odds 3.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.30%28.19%28.06%30.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.233.253.6935.71%30.95%30.77%27.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Damac (Local): 35.02%; Al-Khaleej (Visit): 36.88%; Draw: 28.10%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.56. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.69, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.67%.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.69I 37.17%NM 36.08%EV -5.79%E -2.15%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.62%EV -4.84%E -1.88%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 26.30%EV +3.67%E +0.996%K +1.37%G +0.050%3.0%2026-05-02 16:01
Coral🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%EV -3.69%E -1.34%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.82%EV -7.80%E -3.12%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -4.47%E -1.32%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-02 15:30
Winamax (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.69%EV -10.69%E -4.19%K -6.90%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -9.64%E -3.93%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -5.88%E -1.75%K -2.50%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-02 16:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -3.69%E -1.34%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.80%E -3.12%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -7.28%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-02 15:30
Unibet (UK)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.18%EV -7.19%E -2.71%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.56%EV -5.95%E -2.33%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.25%EV -7.28%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-02 16:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.57%EV -7.89%E -3.00%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.88%EV -11.48%E -4.78%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -7.28%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-02 16:05
SportsBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.65%EV -8.24%E -3.15%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.83%EV -11.48%E -4.78%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -7.28%E -2.21%K -3.17%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-02 13:00
Unibet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.26%EV -0.186%E -0.065%K -0.101%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.46%EV -14.07%E -6.04%K -10.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -8.69%E -2.67%K -3.86%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 15:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.26%EV -0.186%E -0.065%K -0.101%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.46%EV -14.07%E -6.04%K -10.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -8.69%E -2.67%K -3.86%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 15:50
Grosvenor🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.26%EV -0.186%E -0.065%K -0.101%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.46%EV -14.07%E -6.04%K -10.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -8.69%E -2.67%K -3.86%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 15:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.26%EV -0.186%E -0.065%K -0.101%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.46%EV -14.07%E -6.04%K -10.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -8.69%E -2.67%K -3.86%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 15:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.26%EV -0.186%E -0.065%K -0.101%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.46%EV -14.07%E -6.04%K -10.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -8.69%E -2.67%K -3.86%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 15:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.26%EV -0.186%E -0.065%K -0.101%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.46%EV -14.07%E -6.04%K -10.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -8.69%E -2.67%K -3.86%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 15:50
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.42%EV -3.69%E -1.34%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -11.48%E -4.78%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.28%EV -8.69%E -2.67%K -3.86%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 13:00
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.51%EV -8.24%E -3.15%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.67%EV -11.48%E -4.78%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -8.69%E -2.67%K -3.86%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-02 13:15
Winamax (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.58%EV -12.44%E -4.98%K -8.30%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.06%EV -11.48%E -4.78%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.37%EV -8.69%E -2.67%K -3.86%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-02 16:01
BoyleSports🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 35.95%EV -15.95%E -6.64%K -11.39%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.51%EV -15.17%E -6.60%K -11.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.54%EV -8.69%E -2.67%K -3.86%G +0.000%15.9%2026-05-02 15:30
Pinnacle🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 34.29%EV -2.64%E -0.949%K -1.48%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.11%EV -2.63%E -0.997%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.60%EV -9.53%E -2.96%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-02 15:50
Tipico (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.62%EV -7.19%E -2.71%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -7.80%E -3.12%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -10.09%E -3.15%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-02 15:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -1.94%E -0.692%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.37%EV -15.17%E -6.60%K -11.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -10.09%E -3.15%K -4.59%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-02 15:50
LeoVegas🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -1.94%E -0.692%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.37%EV -15.17%E -6.60%K -11.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -10.09%E -3.15%K -4.59%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-02 15:49
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.42%EV -12.44%E -4.98%K -8.30%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.90%EV -11.48%E -4.78%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.68%EV -10.09%E -3.15%K -4.59%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-02 16:05
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.42%EV -12.44%E -4.98%K -8.30%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.90%EV -11.48%E -4.78%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.68%EV -10.09%E -3.15%K -4.59%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-02 16:05
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.42%EV -12.44%E -4.98%K -8.30%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.90%EV -11.48%E -4.78%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.68%EV -10.09%E -3.15%K -4.59%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-02 16:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.42%EV -12.44%E -4.98%K -8.30%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.90%EV -11.48%E -4.78%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.68%EV -10.09%E -3.15%K -4.59%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-02 16:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.31%EV -3.69%E -1.34%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.49%EV -17.02%E -7.56%K -13.61%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.21%EV -11.50%E -3.65%K -5.35%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-02 15:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.31%EV -3.69%E -1.34%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.49%EV -17.02%E -7.56%K -13.61%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.21%EV -11.50%E -3.65%K -5.35%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-02 15:50
Sky Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.12%EV -8.94%E -3.44%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.27%EV -12.22%E -5.13%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.61%EV -12.90%E -4.16%K -6.14%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-02 13:01
PMU (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.45%EV -5.44%E -2.01%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 39.29%EV -17.75%E -7.96%K -14.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.26%EV -12.90%E -4.16%K -6.14%G +0.000%14.1%2026-05-02 15:49
Unibet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.84%EV -12.44%E -4.98%K -8.30%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.06%EV -13.33%E -5.67%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.10%EV -12.90%E -4.16%K -6.14%G +0.000%14.8%2026-05-02 15:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 33.98%EV -12.44%E -4.98%K -8.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 35.69%EV -12.22%E -5.13%K -8.86%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.34%EV -21.33%E -7.62%K -11.85%G +0.000%17.7%2026-05-02 13:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.88I 34.72%NM 34.42%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.26%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.32%0.9%2026-05-02 16:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.88I 34.72%NM 34.42%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.26%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.32%0.9%2026-05-02 16:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.88I 34.72%NM 34.42%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.26%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.32%0.9%2026-05-02 16:00
Smarkets◎2.78I 35.97%NM 34.93%2.66I 37.59%NM 36.51%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.56%3.0%2026-05-02 16:05
Kalshi◎2.78I 35.97%NM 34.91%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.91%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.18%3.0%2026-05-02 16:05