The School of Odds
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Al-Taawoun v Al-Hilal

Kickoff: 2026-02-24 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Taawoun (Local)

Prediction 12.35%8.10fair odd
EV +20.12%
Edge +2.07%
Kelly +2.30%
Growth +0.464%

assuming max odds 9.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.97%12.26%12.36%13.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.757.978.009.7314.81%12.55%12.50%10.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Hilal (Visit)

Prediction 70.27%1.42fair odd
EV -6.54%
Edge -4.92%
Kelly -19.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.33%70.34%70.21%73.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.241.281.281.3380.65%78.06%78.13%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 17.38%5.75fair odd
EV +1.69%
Edge +0.289%
Kelly +0.349%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 5.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.21%17.39%17.43%19.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.245.305.8522.22%19.08%18.87%17.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Taawoun (Local): 12.35%; Al-Hilal (Visit): 70.27%; Draw: 17.38%. For Al-Taawoun (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.10. 12 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.73, corresponding to a positive expected value of +20.12%.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯9.73I 10.28%NM 9.97%EV +20.12%E +2.07%K +2.30%G +0.464%1.32I 75.76%NM 73.46%EV -7.24%E -5.49%K -22.63%G +0.000%5.85I 17.09%NM 16.58%EV +1.69%E +0.289%K +0.349%G +0.006%3.1%2026-02-24 18:55
Unibet🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.85%EV +4.94%E +0.581%K +0.658%G +0.032%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.07%EV -10.05%E -7.85%K -35.90%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.08%EV -6.13%E -1.14%K -1.39%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-24 18:05
Unibet (SE)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.85%EV +4.94%E +0.581%K +0.658%G +0.032%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.07%EV -10.05%E -7.85%K -35.90%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.08%EV -6.13%E -1.14%K -1.39%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-24 18:05
Grosvenor🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.85%EV +4.94%E +0.581%K +0.658%G +0.032%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.07%EV -10.05%E -7.85%K -35.90%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.08%EV -6.13%E -1.14%K -1.39%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-24 18:05
ATG (SE)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.85%EV +4.94%E +0.581%K +0.658%G +0.032%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.07%EV -10.05%E -7.85%K -35.90%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.08%EV -6.13%E -1.14%K -1.39%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-24 18:05
Tipico (DE)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV +4.94%E +0.581%K +0.658%G +0.032%1.28I 78.13%NM 71.83%EV -10.05%E -7.85%K -35.90%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.35%EV -7.87%E -1.48%K -1.83%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-24 18:30
Unibet (NL)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.79%EV +4.94%E +0.581%K +0.658%G +0.032%1.27I 78.74%NM 72.22%EV -10.76%E -8.47%K -39.84%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.99%EV -6.13%E -1.14%K -1.39%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-24 18:55
Svenska Spel🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.79%EV +4.94%E +0.581%K +0.658%G +0.032%1.27I 78.74%NM 72.22%EV -10.76%E -8.47%K -39.84%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.99%EV -6.13%E -1.14%K -1.39%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-24 18:55
LeoVegas🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.76%EV +4.94%E +0.581%K +0.658%G +0.032%1.27I 78.74%NM 71.99%EV -10.76%E -8.47%K -39.84%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.25%EV -7.87%E -1.48%K -1.83%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-24 18:05
SportsBet🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.70%EV +4.94%E +0.581%K +0.658%G +0.032%1.25I 80.00%NM 72.76%EV -12.16%E -9.73%K -48.64%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.54%EV -4.39%E -0.798%K -0.976%G +0.000%9.9%2026-02-24 18:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.70%EV +4.94%E +0.581%K +0.658%G +0.032%1.26I 79.37%NM 72.15%EV -11.46%E -9.09%K -44.07%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.15%EV -7.87%E -1.48%K -1.83%G +0.000%10.0%2026-02-24 18:55
Paddy Power🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.53%EV +4.94%E +0.581%K +0.658%G +0.032%1.25I 80.00%NM 71.58%EV -12.16%E -9.73%K -48.64%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.89%EV -13.08%E -2.62%K -3.27%G +0.000%11.8%2026-02-24 18:20
Coral🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV -1.24%E -0.155%K -0.177%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.02%EV -6.54%E -4.92%K -19.82%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -4.39%E -0.798%K -0.976%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-24 18:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV -1.24%E -0.155%K -0.177%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.02%EV -6.54%E -4.92%K -19.82%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -4.39%E -0.798%K -0.976%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-24 18:55
Virgin Bet🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.12%EV -1.24%E -0.155%K -0.177%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 71.76%EV -12.86%E -10.37%K -53.60%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.11%EV -9.61%E -1.85%K -2.29%G +0.000%12.4%2026-02-24 18:05
LiveScore Bet🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.12%EV -1.24%E -0.155%K -0.177%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 71.76%EV -12.86%E -10.37%K -53.60%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.11%EV -9.61%E -1.85%K -2.29%G +0.000%12.4%2026-02-24 18:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 10.90%EV -1.24%E -0.155%K -0.177%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 69.73%EV -12.16%E -9.73%K -48.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.37%EV -21.77%E -4.84%K -6.22%G +0.000%14.7%2026-02-24 18:20
Pinnacle🎯7.67I 13.04%NM 12.30%EV -5.31%E -0.692%K -0.796%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.48%EV -7.24%E -5.49%K -22.63%G +0.000%5.82I 17.18%NM 16.21%EV +1.17%E +0.201%K +0.243%G +0.003%6.0%2026-02-24 18:50
Unibet (UK)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -7.41%E -0.988%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.90%EV -6.54%E -4.92%K -19.82%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV -8.74%E -1.66%K -2.06%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-24 18:50
888sport🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.94%EV -7.41%E -0.988%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 69.41%EV -9.35%E -7.25%K -32.24%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.65%EV -16.56%E -3.45%K -4.36%G +0.000%11.7%2026-02-24 18:55
William Hill🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.94%EV -7.41%E -0.988%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 69.41%EV -9.35%E -7.25%K -32.24%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.65%EV -16.56%E -3.45%K -4.36%G +0.000%11.7%2026-02-24 18:55
888sport (SE)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.94%EV -7.41%E -0.988%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 69.41%EV -9.35%E -7.25%K -32.24%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.65%EV -16.56%E -3.45%K -4.36%G +0.000%11.7%2026-02-24 18:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.94%EV -7.41%E -0.988%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 69.41%EV -9.35%E -7.25%K -32.24%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.65%EV -16.56%E -3.45%K -4.36%G +0.000%11.7%2026-02-24 18:55
Sky Bet🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.76%EV -7.41%E -0.988%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 70.59%EV -12.16%E -9.73%K -48.64%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.65%EV -13.08%E -2.62%K -3.27%G +0.000%13.3%2026-02-24 18:20
Betclic (FR)🎯7.25I 13.79%NM 12.29%EV -10.50%E -1.45%K -1.68%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 70.73%EV -11.46%E -9.09%K -44.07%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.98%EV -8.74%E -1.66%K -2.06%G +0.000%12.2%2026-02-24 18:50
Unibet (FR)🎯7.20I 13.89%NM 12.37%EV -11.11%E -1.54%K -1.79%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 70.16%EV -10.76%E -8.47%K -39.84%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.47%EV -11.34%E -2.22%K -2.77%G +0.000%12.2%2026-02-24 18:54
Winamax (DE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -13.58%E -1.94%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.32%EV -8.65%E -6.65%K -28.83%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -4.39%E -0.798%K -0.976%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-24 18:50
BoyleSports🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.78%EV -13.58%E -1.94%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 69.33%EV -9.35%E -7.25%K -32.24%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.89%EV -13.08%E -2.62%K -3.27%G +0.000%11.8%2026-02-24 18:45
Winamax (FR)🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.32%EV -16.67%E -2.47%K -2.90%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 69.71%EV -9.35%E -7.25%K -32.24%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.97%EV -7.87%E -1.48%K -1.83%G +0.000%11.2%2026-02-24 18:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎10.00I 10.00%NM 9.90%1.35I 74.07%NM 73.32%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.78%1.0%2026-02-24 18:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎10.00I 10.00%NM 9.90%1.35I 74.07%NM 73.32%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.78%1.0%2026-02-24 18:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎10.00I 10.00%NM 9.79%1.33I 75.19%NM 73.61%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.59%2.1%2026-02-24 18:55
Smarkets◎9.20I 10.87%NM 10.46%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.94%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.60%3.9%2026-02-24 18:55