The School of Odds
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Al-Shabab v Al-Riyadh

Kickoff: 2026-02-23 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Shabab (Local)

Prediction 59.12%1.69fair odd
EV -0.085%
Edge -0.050%
Kelly -0.124%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.87%59.14%59.10%60.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.471.531.531.6968.03%65.16%65.36%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Riyadh (Visit)

Prediction 18.29%5.47fair odd
EV -1.22%
Edge -0.226%
Kelly -0.278%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.01%18.29%18.28%19.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.045.175.4022.22%19.84%19.34%18.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.59%4.43fair odd
EV -5.14%
Edge -1.22%
Kelly -1.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.72%22.57%22.62%25.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.944.004.2029.41%25.38%25.00%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Shabab (Local): 59.12%; Al-Riyadh (Visit): 18.29%; Draw: 22.59%. For Al-Shabab (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.691. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.690, with an expected value of -0.085%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.34%EV -0.085%E -0.050%K -0.124%G +0.000%5.11I 19.57%NM 18.96%EV -6.53%E -1.28%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.69%EV -7.62%E -1.86%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.2%2026-02-23 18:55
Pinnacle🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.94%EV -4.81%E -2.99%K -7.89%G +0.000%5.17I 19.34%NM 18.36%EV -5.43%E -1.05%K -1.30%G +0.000%4.18I 23.92%NM 22.70%EV -5.59%E -1.34%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-23 18:55
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.90%EV -7.18%E -4.57%K -12.60%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -8.54%E -1.71%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -14.17%E -3.73%K -5.06%G +0.000%10.0%2026-02-23 16:30
Tipico (DE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.33%EV -8.36%E -5.39%K -15.20%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.68%EV -4.88%E -0.938%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.99%EV -9.65%E -2.41%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-23 15:50
Sky Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.48%EV -8.36%E -5.39%K -15.20%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.76%EV -13.11%E -2.76%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.76%EV -15.30%E -4.08%K -5.56%G +0.000%12.2%2026-02-23 16:29
William Hill🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.31%EV -8.36%E -5.39%K -15.20%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.31%EV -15.86%E -3.45%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.38%EV -14.17%E -3.73%K -5.06%G +0.000%12.6%2026-02-23 18:54
Unibet (UK)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.24%EV -8.95%E -5.81%K -16.58%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.67%EV -3.97%E -0.755%K -0.933%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.09%EV -5.14%E -1.22%K -1.61%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-23 18:49
Unibet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.03%EV -9.54%E -6.24%K -18.01%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.01%EV -1.22%E -0.226%K -0.278%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -9.65%E -2.41%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-23 18:04
Grosvenor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.03%EV -9.54%E -6.24%K -18.01%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.01%EV -1.22%E -0.226%K -0.278%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -9.65%E -2.41%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-23 18:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.03%EV -9.54%E -6.24%K -18.01%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.01%EV -1.22%E -0.226%K -0.278%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -9.65%E -2.41%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-23 18:04
Unibet (NL)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.03%EV -9.54%E -6.24%K -18.01%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.01%EV -1.22%E -0.226%K -0.278%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -9.65%E -2.41%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-23 18:05
Svenska Spel🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.03%EV -9.54%E -6.24%K -18.01%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.01%EV -1.22%E -0.226%K -0.278%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -9.65%E -2.41%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-23 18:04
ATG (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.03%EV -9.54%E -6.24%K -18.01%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.01%EV -1.22%E -0.226%K -0.278%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -9.65%E -2.41%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-23 18:04
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.63%EV -9.54%E -6.24%K -18.01%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.17%EV -15.86%E -3.45%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.20%EV -14.17%E -3.73%K -5.06%G +0.000%13.4%2026-02-23 18:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.63%EV -9.54%E -6.24%K -18.01%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.17%EV -15.86%E -3.45%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.20%EV -14.17%E -3.73%K -5.06%G +0.000%13.4%2026-02-23 18:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.63%EV -9.54%E -6.24%K -18.01%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.17%EV -15.86%E -3.45%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.20%EV -14.17%E -3.73%K -5.06%G +0.000%13.4%2026-02-23 18:55
BoyleSports🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.38%EV -9.54%E -6.24%K -18.01%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.51%EV -17.68%E -3.93%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.10%EV -14.17%E -3.73%K -5.06%G +0.000%13.9%2026-02-23 18:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 55.87%EV -9.54%E -6.24%K -18.01%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 18.99%EV -17.68%E -3.93%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.14%EV -23.21%E -6.83%K -9.67%G +0.000%17.0%2026-02-23 16:30
Winamax (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.03%EV -10.14%E -6.67%K -19.49%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.25%EV -8.54%E -1.71%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.72%EV -5.14%E -1.22%K -1.61%G +0.000%9.6%2026-02-23 18:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.27%EV -10.14%E -6.67%K -19.49%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.20%EV -9.45%E -1.91%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.52%EV -9.65%E -2.41%K -3.22%G +0.000%11.0%2026-02-23 18:55
LeoVegas🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 59.98%EV -10.73%E -7.10%K -21.03%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.09%EV -3.05%E -0.576%K -0.709%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.93%EV -10.78%E -2.73%K -3.66%G +0.000%10.4%2026-02-23 18:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.58%EV -11.32%E -7.55%K -22.64%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.62%EV -12.20%E -2.54%K -3.21%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.80%EV -7.40%E -1.80%K -2.39%G +0.000%11.9%2026-02-23 18:49
Virgin Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.09%EV -12.50%E -8.45%K -26.04%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.10%EV -4.88%E -0.938%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.80%EV -11.91%E -3.05%K -4.11%G +0.000%12.4%2026-02-23 18:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.09%EV -12.50%E -8.45%K -26.04%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.10%EV -4.88%E -0.938%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.80%EV -11.91%E -3.05%K -4.11%G +0.000%12.4%2026-02-23 18:04
Betclic (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 60.87%EV -13.09%E -8.91%K -27.86%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.04%EV -3.97%E -0.755%K -0.933%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.09%EV -8.52%E -2.10%K -2.79%G +0.000%11.8%2026-02-23 18:48
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.65I 60.61%NM 59.94%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.05%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.00%1.1%2026-02-23 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.65I 60.61%NM 59.94%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.05%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.00%1.1%2026-02-23 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.09%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.99%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.92%1.5%2026-02-23 18:55
Smarkets◎1.63I 61.35%NM 59.74%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.08%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.18%2.7%2026-02-23 18:55