Language:English
Al-Shabab v Al-Riyadh
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Al-Shabab (Local)
Prediction 54.50%1.83fair odd
EV -4.63%
Edge -2.64%
Kelly -6.17%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.15%54.66%54.54%57.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.661.671.7564.10%60.22%59.88%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Al-Riyadh (Visit)
Prediction 22.09%4.53fair odd
EV +3.84%
Edge +0.816%
Kelly +1.04%
Growth +0.040%
assuming max odds 4.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.56%21.84%22.22%23.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.184.204.7026.32%23.90%23.81%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 23.41%4.27fair odd
EV -3.79%
Edge -0.922%
Kelly -1.22%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.11
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.98%23.50%23.23%24.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.793.804.1128.17%26.41%26.32%24.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Shabab (Local): 54.50%; Al-Riyadh (Visit): 22.09%; Draw: 23.41%. For Al-Riyadh (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.53. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.84%.
Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.46%EV -12.80%E -8.00%K -21.34%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.56%EV +3.84%E +0.816%K +1.04%G +0.040% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -6.37%E -1.59%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-25 17:59 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.48%EV -4.63%E -2.64%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 4.66I 21.46%NM 20.84%EV +2.95%E +0.634%K +0.807%G +0.024% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.68%EV -4.02%E -0.981%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-08-25 17:54 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.81%EV -4.63%E -2.64%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%EV -2.79%E -0.634%K -0.821%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -11.05%E -2.91%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-25 15:34 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.61%EV -10.08%E -6.11%K -15.50%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86%EV -2.79%E -0.634%K -0.821%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -8.71%E -2.23%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-25 17:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.74%EV -7.35%E -4.33%K -10.50%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.39%EV -3.90%E -0.895%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -8.71%E -2.23%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-25 17:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.63%EV -4.63%E -2.64%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.67%EV -4.34%E -1.00%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%EV -11.05%E -2.91%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-25 15:34 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.61%EV -8.99%E -5.38%K -13.41%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.06%EV -4.34%E -1.00%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.32%EV -12.22%E -3.26%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-25 17:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.90%EV -5.72%E -3.31%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 4.32I 23.15%NM 21.99%EV -4.56%E -1.06%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 4.11I 24.33%NM 23.11%EV -3.79%E -0.922%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-25 17:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.72%EV -9.53%E -5.74%K -14.44%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.37%EV -6.10%E -1.44%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -11.05%E -2.91%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-25 17:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.72%EV -9.53%E -5.74%K -14.44%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.37%EV -6.10%E -1.44%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -11.05%E -2.91%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-25 17:49 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.72%EV -9.53%E -5.74%K -14.44%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.37%EV -6.10%E -1.44%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -11.05%E -2.91%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-25 17:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.26%EV -8.99%E -5.38%K -13.41%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.58%EV -7.21%E -1.72%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.16%EV -12.22%E -3.26%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-25 17:59 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.26%EV -8.99%E -5.38%K -13.41%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.58%EV -7.21%E -1.72%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.16%EV -12.22%E -3.26%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-25 17:59 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.26%EV -8.99%E -5.38%K -13.41%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.58%EV -7.21%E -1.72%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.16%EV -12.22%E -3.26%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-25 17:59 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.01%EV -11.71%E -7.23%K -18.89%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -7.21%E -1.72%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.77%EV -12.22%E -3.26%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-25 17:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 54.84%EV -11.71%E -7.23%K -18.89%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.15%EV -7.21%E -1.72%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.01%EV -13.39%E -3.62%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-08-25 17:49 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 55.34%EV -13.35%E -8.39%K -22.62%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 21.20%EV -8.31%E -2.00%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.46%EV -12.22%E -3.26%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-08-25 17:59 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.79%EV -9.53%E -5.74%K -14.44%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.18%EV -9.42%E -2.30%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.03%EV -7.54%E -1.91%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-25 17:59 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 54.53%EV -12.26%E -7.61%K -20.09%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.41%EV -9.42%E -2.30%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.05%EV -14.56%E -3.99%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-08-25 17:54 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 54.53%EV -12.26%E -7.61%K -20.09%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.41%EV -9.42%E -2.30%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.05%EV -14.56%E -3.99%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-08-25 17:54 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 53.95%EV -8.44%E -5.03%K -12.42%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.38%EV -10.52%E -2.60%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.83I 26.11%NM 23.67%EV -10.34%E -2.70%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-25 17:48 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.18%EV -8.99%E -5.38%K -13.41%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.62%EV -11.63%E -2.91%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.20%EV -8.71%E -2.23%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-25 17:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.85%EV -8.99%E -5.38%K -13.41%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -11.63%E -2.91%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.67%EV -11.05%E -2.91%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-08-25 15:04 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 54.47%EV -10.62%E -6.48%K -16.60%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.33%EV -11.63%E -2.91%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.20%EV -9.88%E -2.57%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-08-25 17:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.15%EV -8.99%E -5.38%K -13.41%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%EV -11.63%E -2.91%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.66%EV -15.73%E -4.37%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-08-25 17:54 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.15%EV -8.99%E -5.38%K -13.41%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%EV -11.63%E -2.91%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.66%EV -15.73%E -4.37%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-08-25 17:54 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.15%EV -8.99%E -5.38%K -13.41%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%EV -11.63%E -2.91%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.66%EV -15.73%E -4.37%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-08-25 17:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.15%EV -8.99%E -5.38%K -13.41%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%EV -11.63%E -2.91%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.66%EV -15.73%E -4.37%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-08-25 17:54 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 54.66%EV -14.98%E -9.60%K -26.75%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.32%EV -11.63%E -2.91%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.02%EV -16.90%E -4.76%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 17.3% | 2026-08-25 17:49 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 53.98%EV -11.71%E -7.23%K -18.89%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.01%EV -16.05%E -4.22%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.01%EV -11.05%E -2.91%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-08-25 17:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.00% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.53% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.47% | 1.5% | 2026-08-25 17:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.00% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.53% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.47% | 1.5% | 2026-08-25 17:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.00% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.53% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.47% | 1.5% | 2026-08-25 17:54 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.96% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.52% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.51% | 2.1% | 2026-08-25 16:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.04% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.75% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.22% | 2.6% | 2026-08-25 17:54 |