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Al-Shabab v Al-Qadsiah

2026-08-13 18:00 UTC — Saudi Pro League

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Shabab (Local)

Prediction 16.82%5.94fair odd
EV -7.47%
Edge -1.36%
Kelly -1.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.59%16.82%16.82%20.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.824.705.5023.81%20.76%21.28%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Qadsiah (Visit)

Prediction 57.47%1.74fair odd
EV -6.89%
Edge -4.26%
Kelly -11.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.93%57.47%57.47%58.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.581.581.6265.79%63.20%63.09%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.70%3.89fair odd
EV +7.95%
Edge +1.89%
Kelly +2.49%
Growth +0.198%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.40%25.70%25.70%25.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.703.704.2029.85%27.06%27.03%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Al-Shabab (Local): 16.82%; Al-Qadsiah (Visit): 57.47%; Draw: 25.70%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.89. 4 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.20, producing a positive expected value of +7.95%.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -15.88%E -3.18%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.79%EV -8.04%E -5.03%K -13.40%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV +7.95%E +1.89%K +2.49%G +0.198%6.3%2026-08-11 13:05
betfred_uk🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -15.88%E -3.18%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -9.77%E -6.22%K -17.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV +2.81%E +0.703%K +0.937%G +0.026%8.7%2026-08-11 10:30
SportsBet🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.71%EV -17.56%E -3.58%K -4.50%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.38%EV -9.77%E -6.22%K -17.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV +2.81%E +0.703%K +0.937%G +0.026%9.1%2026-08-11 12:49
Paddy Power🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.18%EV -20.09%E -4.23%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.04%EV -9.77%E -6.22%K -17.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV +2.81%E +0.703%K +0.937%G +0.026%9.7%2026-08-11 12:49
1xBet🎯5.24I 19.08%NM 17.84%EV -11.84%E -2.26%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.70%EV -6.89%E -4.26%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.47%EV -1.81%E -0.475%K -0.644%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-11 12:55
Sky Bet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.31%EV -22.61%E -4.92%K -6.28%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 57.31%EV -10.92%E -7.04%K -19.85%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.38%EV -2.33%E -0.613%K -0.832%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-11 12:49
Unibet🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.27%EV -20.93%E -4.45%K -5.66%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.25%EV -7.47%E -4.64%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.48%EV -4.90%E -1.32%K -1.81%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-11 12:44
Unibet (SE)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.27%EV -20.93%E -4.45%K -5.66%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.25%EV -7.47%E -4.64%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.48%EV -4.90%E -1.32%K -1.81%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-11 12:44
Grosvenor🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.27%EV -20.93%E -4.45%K -5.66%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.25%EV -7.47%E -4.64%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.48%EV -4.90%E -1.32%K -1.81%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-11 12:45
Unibet (NL)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.27%EV -20.93%E -4.45%K -5.66%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.25%EV -7.47%E -4.64%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.48%EV -4.90%E -1.32%K -1.81%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-11 12:44
ATG (SE)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.27%EV -20.93%E -4.45%K -5.66%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.25%EV -7.47%E -4.64%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.48%EV -4.90%E -1.32%K -1.81%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-11 12:44
Svenska Spel🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.27%EV -20.93%E -4.45%K -5.66%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.25%EV -7.47%E -4.64%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.48%EV -4.90%E -1.32%K -1.81%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-11 12:44
Unibet (UK)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.88%EV -7.47%E -1.36%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.32%EV -6.89%E -4.26%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -7.47%E -2.07%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-11 10:05
Tipico (DE)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -7.47%E -1.36%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.63%EV -8.04%E -5.03%K -13.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -7.47%E -2.07%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-11 10:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.20%EV -22.61%E -4.92%K -6.28%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.26%EV -9.77%E -6.22%K -17.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.54%EV -7.47%E -2.07%K -2.87%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-11 12:44
Unibet (FR)🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 16.59%EV -9.15%E -1.69%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 58.17%EV -11.49%E -7.46%K -21.28%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.24%EV -8.75%E -2.47%K -3.43%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-11 10:04
Winamax (DE)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -15.88%E -3.18%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 57.10%EV -10.34%E -6.63%K -18.47%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.09%EV -8.75%E -2.47%K -3.43%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-11 10:05
LiveScore Bet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.41%EV -24.29%E -5.40%K -6.94%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 55.99%EV -10.34%E -6.63%K -18.47%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.60%EV -8.75%E -2.47%K -3.43%G +0.000%14.5%2026-08-11 12:44
Virgin Bet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.41%EV -24.29%E -5.40%K -6.94%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 55.99%EV -10.34%E -6.63%K -18.47%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.60%EV -8.75%E -2.47%K -3.43%G +0.000%14.5%2026-08-11 12:45
PMU (FR)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 19.48%EV -25.98%E -5.90%K -7.64%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 56.03%EV -12.07%E -7.89%K -22.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.49%EV -10.04%E -2.87%K -4.02%G +0.000%16.7%2026-08-11 12:44
Betclic (FR)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 20.67%EV -29.34%E -6.99%K -9.17%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 53.93%EV -7.47%E -4.64%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 25.39%EV -12.10%E -3.54%K -5.00%G +0.000%15.2%2026-08-11 10:58
Winamax (FR)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 18.20%EV -20.93%E -4.45%K -5.66%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 56.27%EV -12.64%E -8.32%K -24.31%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.53%EV -13.90%E -4.15%K -5.91%G +0.000%16.9%2026-08-11 10:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎5.00I 20.00%NM 18.35%1.64I 60.98%NM 55.95%3.57I 28.01%NM 25.70%9.0%2026-08-11 13:25
Smarkets◎4.90I 20.41%NM 17.97%1.53I 65.36%NM 57.56%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.46%13.5%2026-08-11 13:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.90I 25.64%NM 21.52%1.55I 64.52%NM 54.15%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.33%19.1%2026-08-11 13:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 52.12%1.55I 64.52%NM 34.97%4.20I 23.81%NM 12.91%84.5%2026-08-11 12:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.77%190.3%2026-08-11 13:25

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