The School of Odds
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Al-Riyadh v Al-Kholood

Kickoff: 2026-09-13 18:00 UTC

Final: Al-Riyadh 2–0 Al-Kholood

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Riyadh (Local)

Prediction 22.07%4.53fair odd
EV +3.71%
Edge +0.790%
Kelly +1.00%
Growth +0.037%

assuming max odds 4.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.55%21.87%22.07%25.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.933.834.7029.41%25.44%26.14%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Kholood (Visit)

Prediction 51.19%1.95fair odd
EV -1.72%
Edge -0.898%
Kelly -1.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.07%51.13%51.16%53.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.831.831.9258.82%54.72%54.64%52.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.75%3.74fair odd
EV -2.64%
Edge -0.725%
Kelly -1.000%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.36%27.00%26.77%28.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.313.303.6432.26%30.23%30.30%27.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Riyadh (Local): 22.07%; Al-Kholood (Visit): 51.19%; Draw: 26.75%. For Al-Riyadh (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.53. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.71%.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.55%EV +3.71%E +0.790%K +1.00%G +0.037%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.42%EV -11.96%E -6.95%K -16.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -9.06%E -2.66%K -3.77%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-13 17:56
Pinnacle🎯4.51I 22.17%NM 21.06%EV -0.479%E -0.106%K -0.137%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.48%EV -7.35%E -4.06%K -9.08%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.46%EV -3.98%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-13 17:56
SportsBet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -2.91%E -0.661%K -0.855%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.01%EV -9.40%E -5.31%K -12.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.07%EV -9.06%E -2.66%K -3.77%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-13 17:45
Coral🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.85%EV -4.45%E -1.03%K -1.34%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.13%EV -5.31%E -2.87%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.03%EV -6.38%E -1.82%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-13 17:56
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.72%EV -4.45%E -1.03%K -1.34%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.40%EV -6.33%E -3.46%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.38%E -1.82%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-13 17:55
Paddy Power🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 20.89%EV -4.45%E -1.03%K -1.34%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.69%EV -10.42%E -5.96%K -13.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.41%EV -11.73%E -3.56%K -5.10%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-13 17:46
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 20.89%EV -4.45%E -1.03%K -1.34%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.69%EV -10.42%E -5.96%K -13.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.41%EV -11.73%E -3.56%K -5.10%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-13 17:45
Unibet (UK)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV -7.32%E -1.74%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.66%EV -6.33%E -3.46%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -9.06%E -2.66%K -3.77%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-13 17:35
betfred_uk🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -7.32%E -1.74%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -7.87%E -4.37%K -9.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -9.06%E -2.66%K -3.77%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-13 17:40
Sky Bet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.19%EV -7.32%E -1.74%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.43%EV -11.45%E -6.62%K -15.68%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.38%EV -13.07%E -4.02%K -5.81%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-13 17:46
1xBet🎯4.08I 24.51%NM 23.55%EV -9.97%E -2.44%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 50.05%EV -1.72%E -0.898%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.40%EV -2.64%E -0.725%K -1.000%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-13 17:50
Betclic (FR)🎯3.98I 25.13%NM 22.03%EV -12.17%E -3.06%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 51.57%EV -12.98%E -7.64%K -18.55%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 26.41%EV -11.20%E -3.37%K -4.83%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-13 17:34
Winamax (DE)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.04%EV -12.84%E -3.25%K -4.35%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.57%EV -7.87%E -4.37%K -9.83%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.38%EV -7.72%E -2.24%K -3.15%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-13 17:35
Unibet (FR)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 22.19%EV -12.84%E -3.25%K -4.35%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 51.25%EV -12.47%E -7.29%K -17.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.56%EV -11.73%E -3.56%K -5.10%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-13 17:35
Winamax (FR)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.28%EV -15.04%E -3.91%K -5.28%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 50.36%EV -8.89%E -4.99%K -11.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.36%EV -9.06%E -2.66%K -3.77%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-13 17:35
888sport🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.24%EV -16.15%E -4.25%K -5.77%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.26%EV -6.33%E -3.46%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -17.08%E -5.51%K -8.13%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-13 16:50
William Hill🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.24%EV -16.15%E -4.25%K -5.77%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.26%EV -6.33%E -3.46%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -17.08%E -5.51%K -8.13%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-13 16:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.24%EV -16.15%E -4.25%K -5.77%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.26%EV -6.33%E -3.46%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -17.08%E -5.51%K -8.13%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-13 16:46
888sport (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.24%EV -16.15%E -4.25%K -5.77%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.26%EV -6.33%E -3.46%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -17.08%E -5.51%K -8.13%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-13 16:50
BoyleSports🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 22.74%EV -16.15%E -4.25%K -5.77%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 49.38%EV -10.42%E -5.96%K -13.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.88%EV -17.08%E -5.51%K -8.13%G +0.000%15.7%2026-09-13 17:56
Unibet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.21%EV -20.56%E -5.71%K -7.91%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.28%EV -1.72%E -0.898%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -11.73%E -3.56%K -5.10%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-13 17:55
Unibet (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.21%EV -20.56%E -5.71%K -7.91%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.28%EV -1.72%E -0.898%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -11.73%E -3.56%K -5.10%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-13 17:55
Unibet (NL)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.21%EV -20.56%E -5.71%K -7.91%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.28%EV -1.72%E -0.898%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -11.73%E -3.56%K -5.10%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-13 17:55
Grosvenor🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.21%EV -20.56%E -5.71%K -7.91%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.28%EV -1.72%E -0.898%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -11.73%E -3.56%K -5.10%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-13 17:55
ATG (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.21%EV -20.56%E -5.71%K -7.91%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.28%EV -1.72%E -0.898%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -11.73%E -3.56%K -5.10%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-13 17:56
Svenska Spel🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.21%EV -20.56%E -5.71%K -7.91%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.28%EV -1.72%E -0.898%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -11.73%E -3.56%K -5.10%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-13 17:55
Virgin Bet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.19%EV -21.66%E -6.10%K -8.50%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 47.31%EV -3.26%E -1.72%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.51%EV -13.07%E -4.02%K -5.81%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-13 17:56
LiveScore Bet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.19%EV -21.66%E -6.10%K -8.50%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 47.31%EV -3.26%E -1.72%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.51%EV -13.07%E -4.02%K -5.81%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-13 17:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.28%EV -22.77%E -6.50%K -9.11%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 47.07%EV -3.77%E -2.01%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.65%EV -14.41%E -4.50%K -6.55%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-13 17:56
PMU (FR)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 25.22%EV -24.97%E -7.35%K -10.41%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 47.12%EV -6.84%E -3.76%K -8.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.66%EV -17.08%E -5.51%K -8.13%G +0.000%16.6%2026-09-13 17:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎4.80I 20.83%NM 20.56%1.87I 53.48%NM 52.77%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.67%1.3%2026-09-13 17:51
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.80I 20.83%NM 20.54%1.88I 53.19%NM 52.45%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.01%1.4%2026-09-13 17:56
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.80I 20.83%NM 20.54%1.88I 53.19%NM 52.45%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.01%1.4%2026-09-13 17:56
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.80I 20.83%NM 20.54%1.88I 53.19%NM 52.45%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.01%1.4%2026-09-13 17:56
Kalshi◎4.55I 21.98%NM 21.57%1.89I 52.91%NM 51.92%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.52%1.9%2026-09-13 17:10