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Al-Qadsiah v Al-Taawoun

Kickoff: 2026-02-28 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Qadsiah (Local)

Prediction 68.26%1.46fair odd
EV -3.07%
Edge -2.16%
Kelly -7.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.69%68.20%68.50%69.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.351.361.4280.00%74.07%73.53%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Taawoun (Visit)

Prediction 13.41%7.46fair odd
EV +4.59%
Edge +0.589%
Kelly +0.676%
Growth +0.031%

assuming max odds 7.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.76%13.40%13.11%14.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.006.706.757.8016.67%14.92%14.81%12.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 18.33%5.46fair odd
EV -0.835%
Edge -0.154%
Kelly -0.189%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.47%18.40%18.39%20.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.784.705.4123.81%20.92%21.28%18.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Qadsiah (Local): 68.26%; Al-Taawoun (Visit): 13.41%; Draw: 18.33%. For Al-Taawoun (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.46. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.59%.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.51%EV -9.90%E -7.50%K -30.93%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.76%EV +4.59%E +0.589%K +0.676%G +0.031%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.73%EV -10.18%E -2.08%K -2.61%G +0.000%9.0%2026-02-28 18:49
SportsBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -11.26%E -8.66%K -37.54%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV +0.572%E +0.076%K +0.088%G +0.001%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -8.35%E -1.67%K -2.09%G +0.000%10.3%2026-02-28 18:45
Paddy Power🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -11.26%E -8.66%K -37.54%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV +0.572%E +0.076%K +0.088%G +0.001%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -8.35%E -1.67%K -2.09%G +0.000%10.3%2026-02-28 18:43
Pinnacle🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.13%EV -6.48%E -4.73%K -17.52%G +0.000%7.32I 13.66%NM 12.94%EV -1.84%E -0.252%K -0.291%G +0.000%5.28I 18.94%NM 17.94%EV -3.22%E -0.609%K -0.752%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-28 18:39
1xBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 68.52%EV -3.07%E -2.16%K -7.31%G +0.000%7.21I 13.87%NM 13.49%EV -3.32%E -0.460%K -0.534%G +0.000%5.41I 18.48%NM 17.98%EV -0.835%E -0.154%K -0.189%G +0.000%2.8%2026-02-28 18:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -4.44%E -3.17%K -11.09%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -6.13%E -0.876%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -8.35%E -1.67%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-28 18:15
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -4.44%E -3.17%K -11.09%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -6.13%E -0.876%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -8.35%E -1.67%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-28 18:14
Unibet (UK)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.04%EV -6.48%E -4.73%K -17.52%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV -6.13%E -0.876%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -8.35%E -1.67%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-28 18:29
Sky Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.52%EV -11.26%E -8.66%K -37.54%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.73%EV -6.13%E -0.876%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.75%EV -12.93%E -2.72%K -3.45%G +0.000%12.3%2026-02-28 18:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 66.88%EV -11.26%E -8.66%K -37.54%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.42%EV -6.13%E -0.876%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.70%EV -23.01%E -5.48%K -7.19%G +0.000%15.0%2026-02-28 18:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 69.87%EV -14.67%E -11.74%K -58.70%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 12.66%EV -7.47%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.47%EV -8.35%E -1.67%K -2.09%G +0.000%14.5%2026-02-28 18:34
Unibet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.75%EV -5.80%E -4.20%K -15.26%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.65%EV -9.49%E -1.41%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -13.85%E -2.95%K -3.74%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-28 08:59
Unibet (NL)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.75%EV -5.80%E -4.20%K -15.26%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.65%EV -9.49%E -1.41%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -13.85%E -2.95%K -3.74%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-28 09:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.75%EV -5.80%E -4.20%K -15.26%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.65%EV -9.49%E -1.41%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -13.85%E -2.95%K -3.74%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-28 08:58
Grosvenor🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.75%EV -5.80%E -4.20%K -15.26%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.65%EV -9.49%E -1.41%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -13.85%E -2.95%K -3.74%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-28 08:59
ATG (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.75%EV -5.80%E -4.20%K -15.26%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.65%EV -9.49%E -1.41%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -13.85%E -2.95%K -3.74%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-28 08:59
Svenska Spel🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.75%EV -5.80%E -4.20%K -15.26%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.65%EV -9.49%E -1.41%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -13.85%E -2.95%K -3.74%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-28 08:59
Unibet (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 67.73%EV -9.90%E -7.50%K -30.93%G +0.000%6.55I 15.27%NM 13.65%EV -12.17%E -1.86%K -2.19%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.62%EV -12.02%E -2.50%K -3.16%G +0.000%11.9%2026-02-28 18:54
LeoVegas🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.45%EV -7.17%E -5.27%K -19.90%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -12.84%E -1.98%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.65%EV -15.68%E -3.41%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.7%2026-02-28 18:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.45%EV -7.17%E -5.27%K -19.90%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -12.84%E -1.98%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.65%EV -15.68%E -3.41%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.7%2026-02-28 18:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 66.35%EV -8.53%E -6.37%K -25.09%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.89%EV -14.18%E -2.22%K -2.63%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.76%EV -17.52%E -3.89%K -5.00%G +0.000%12.5%2026-02-28 18:09
LiveScore Bet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 66.35%EV -8.53%E -6.37%K -25.09%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.89%EV -14.18%E -2.22%K -2.63%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.76%EV -17.52%E -3.89%K -5.00%G +0.000%12.5%2026-02-28 18:09
Winamax (DE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.54%EV -7.85%E -5.81%K -22.42%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.59%EV -16.19%E -2.59%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.88%EV -6.52%E -1.28%K -1.59%G +0.000%9.7%2026-02-28 18:30
William Hill🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.69%EV -7.17%E -5.27%K -19.90%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.89%EV -19.54%E -3.26%K -3.91%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.42%EV -15.68%E -3.41%K -4.36%G +0.000%11.9%2026-02-28 18:55
888sport🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.69%EV -7.17%E -5.27%K -19.90%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.89%EV -19.54%E -3.26%K -3.91%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.42%EV -15.68%E -3.41%K -4.36%G +0.000%11.9%2026-02-28 18:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.69%EV -7.17%E -5.27%K -19.90%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.89%EV -19.54%E -3.26%K -3.91%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.42%EV -15.68%E -3.41%K -4.36%G +0.000%11.9%2026-02-28 18:54
888sport (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.69%EV -7.17%E -5.27%K -19.90%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.89%EV -19.54%E -3.26%K -3.91%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.42%EV -15.68%E -3.41%K -4.36%G +0.000%11.9%2026-02-28 18:54
Winamax (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.97%EV -9.21%E -6.93%K -27.92%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.85%EV -19.54%E -3.26%K -3.91%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.18%EV -10.18%E -2.08%K -2.61%G +0.000%12.3%2026-02-28 18:30
BoyleSports🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 66.42%EV -11.26%E -8.66%K -37.54%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.39%EV -19.54%E -3.26%K -3.91%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.19%EV -17.52%E -3.89%K -5.00%G +0.000%15.8%2026-02-28 18:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.39I 71.94%NM 71.29%9.00I 11.11%NM 11.01%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.70%0.9%2026-02-28 18:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.39I 71.94%NM 71.29%9.00I 11.11%NM 11.01%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.70%0.9%2026-02-28 18:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.39I 71.94%NM 71.29%9.00I 11.11%NM 11.01%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.70%0.9%2026-02-28 18:45
Smarkets◎1.37I 72.99%NM 70.84%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.83%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.33%3.0%2026-02-28 18:54