The School of Odds
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Al-Qadsiah v Al-Ettifaq

Kickoff: 2026-02-23 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Qadsiah (Local)

Prediction 71.60%1.40fair odd
EV -6.92%
Edge -5.32%
Kelly -23.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.73%71.49%71.83%74.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.261.271.3081.97%79.10%79.05%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Ettifaq (Visit)

Prediction 11.71%8.54fair odd
EV +15.07%
Edge +1.53%
Kelly +1.71%
Growth +0.257%

assuming max odds 9.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.84%11.78%11.57%12.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.008.088.009.8314.29%12.38%12.50%10.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 16.69%5.99fair odd
EV +2.32%
Edge +0.379%
Kelly +0.453%
Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 6.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.78%16.74%16.60%19.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.355.406.1322.22%18.68%18.52%16.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Qadsiah (Local): 71.60%; Al-Ettifaq (Visit): 11.71%; Draw: 16.69%. For Al-Ettifaq (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.54. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.83, corresponding to a positive expected value of +15.07%.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 74.39%EV -6.92%E -5.32%K -23.06%G +0.000%9.83I 10.17%NM 9.84%EV +15.07%E +1.53%K +1.71%G +0.257%6.13I 16.31%NM 15.78%EV +2.32%E +0.379%K +0.453%G +0.011%3.4%2026-02-23 18:55
Unibet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.07%EV -8.35%E -6.52%K -29.82%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.85%EV -0.499%E -0.059%K -0.067%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.08%EV -9.86%E -1.83%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-23 18:04
Unibet (NL)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.07%EV -8.35%E -6.52%K -29.82%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.85%EV -0.499%E -0.059%K -0.067%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.08%EV -9.86%E -1.83%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-23 18:05
Grosvenor🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.07%EV -8.35%E -6.52%K -29.82%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.85%EV -0.499%E -0.059%K -0.067%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.08%EV -9.86%E -1.83%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-23 18:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.07%EV -8.35%E -6.52%K -29.82%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.85%EV -0.499%E -0.059%K -0.067%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.08%EV -9.86%E -1.83%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-23 18:04
Svenska Spel🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.07%EV -8.35%E -6.52%K -29.82%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.85%EV -0.499%E -0.059%K -0.067%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.08%EV -9.86%E -1.83%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-23 18:04
ATG (SE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.07%EV -8.35%E -6.52%K -29.82%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.85%EV -0.499%E -0.059%K -0.067%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.08%EV -9.86%E -1.83%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-23 18:04
SportsBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.76%EV -10.50%E -8.40%K -41.99%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.70%EV -0.499%E -0.059%K -0.067%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.54%EV -8.19%E -1.49%K -1.82%G +0.000%9.9%2026-02-23 18:45
Paddy Power🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 73.24%EV -12.65%E -10.37%K -57.48%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.51%EV -0.499%E -0.059%K -0.067%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.25%EV -8.19%E -1.49%K -1.82%G +0.000%11.9%2026-02-23 18:44
Pinnacle🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.65%EV -6.92%E -5.32%K -23.06%G +0.000%8.31I 12.03%NM 11.37%EV -2.72%E -0.328%K -0.373%G +0.000%5.91I 16.92%NM 15.98%EV -1.35%E -0.229%K -0.275%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-23 18:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -6.92%E -5.32%K -23.06%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -6.35%E -0.794%K -0.907%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -8.19%E -1.49%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-23 18:49
Tipico (DE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.38%EV -9.07%E -7.14%K -33.58%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -6.35%E -0.794%K -0.907%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.13%EV -4.86%E -0.852%K -1.03%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-23 12:44
LeoVegas🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 71.90%EV -9.78%E -7.76%K -37.62%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.32%EV -6.35%E -0.794%K -0.907%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.78%EV -9.86%E -1.83%K -2.24%G +0.000%10.4%2026-02-23 18:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 71.88%EV -11.21%E -9.04%K -46.72%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.14%EV -6.35%E -0.794%K -0.907%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.98%EV -12.37%E -2.36%K -2.91%G +0.000%12.2%2026-02-23 18:04
Virgin Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 71.88%EV -11.21%E -9.04%K -46.72%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.14%EV -6.35%E -0.794%K -0.907%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.98%EV -12.37%E -2.36%K -2.91%G +0.000%12.2%2026-02-23 18:05
888sport🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.11%EV -10.50%E -8.40%K -41.99%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -6.35%E -0.794%K -0.907%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -16.54%E -3.31%K -4.14%G +0.000%12.5%2026-02-23 18:55
William Hill🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.11%EV -10.50%E -8.40%K -41.99%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -6.35%E -0.794%K -0.907%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -16.54%E -3.31%K -4.14%G +0.000%12.5%2026-02-23 18:54
888sport (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.11%EV -10.50%E -8.40%K -41.99%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -6.35%E -0.794%K -0.907%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -16.54%E -3.31%K -4.14%G +0.000%12.5%2026-02-23 18:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.11%EV -10.50%E -8.40%K -41.99%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -6.35%E -0.794%K -0.907%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -16.54%E -3.31%K -4.14%G +0.000%12.5%2026-02-23 18:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 69.73%EV -10.50%E -8.40%K -41.99%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 10.90%EV -6.35%E -0.794%K -0.907%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.37%EV -24.89%E -5.53%K -7.11%G +0.000%14.7%2026-02-23 18:19
Betclic (FR)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 71.96%EV -11.21%E -9.04%K -46.72%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.51%EV -9.28%E -1.20%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.52%EV -9.86%E -1.83%K -2.24%G +0.000%12.1%2026-02-23 18:48
Sky Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.19%EV -10.50%E -8.40%K -41.99%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.86%EV -12.20%E -1.63%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.95%EV -12.37%E -2.36%K -2.91%G +0.000%12.4%2026-02-23 18:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 70.92%EV -9.07%E -7.14%K -33.58%G +0.000%7.45I 13.42%NM 12.09%EV -12.79%E -1.72%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.99%EV -11.53%E -2.18%K -2.68%G +0.000%11.0%2026-02-23 18:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.37%EV -8.35%E -6.52%K -29.82%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.60%EV -15.13%E -2.09%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.03%EV -4.86%E -0.852%K -1.03%G +0.000%9.5%2026-02-23 18:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 70.80%EV -9.07%E -7.14%K -33.58%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -18.06%E -2.58%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.35%EV -8.19%E -1.49%K -1.82%G +0.000%11.2%2026-02-23 18:49
BoyleSports🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 70.00%EV -10.50%E -8.40%K -41.99%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.50%EV -18.06%E -2.58%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.50%EV -16.54%E -3.31%K -4.14%G +0.000%14.3%2026-02-23 18:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.32I 75.76%NM 74.72%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.86%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.41%1.4%2026-02-23 18:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.32I 75.76%NM 74.72%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.86%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.41%1.4%2026-02-23 18:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.32I 75.76%NM 74.72%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.86%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.41%1.4%2026-02-23 18:50
Smarkets◎1.30I 76.92%NM 74.19%9.40I 10.64%NM 10.26%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.55%3.7%2026-02-23 18:50