The School of Odds
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Al-Qadsiah v Al-Ahli

Kickoff: 2026-03-13 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Qadsiah (Local)

Prediction 39.80%2.51fair odd
EV -2.48%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -1.71%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.44%39.78%39.83%40.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.332.302.4546.51%42.89%43.48%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Ahli (Visit)

Prediction 32.95%3.04fair odd
EV -5.44%
Edge -1.89%
Kelly -2.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.16%32.87%33.09%35.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.482.682.752.8740.32%37.29%36.36%34.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.25%3.67fair odd
EV -3.27%
Edge -0.921%
Kelly -1.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.58%27.35%27.08%28.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.323.353.5533.33%30.08%29.85%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Qadsiah (Local): 39.80%; Al-Ahli (Visit): 32.95%; Draw: 27.25%. For Al-Qadsiah (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.51. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.45, with an expected value of -2.48%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.44%EV -2.48%E -1.01%K -1.71%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.97%EV -15.98%E -6.27%K -10.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.59%EV -5.99%E -1.74%K -2.45%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-13 18:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.44%EV -2.48%E -1.01%K -1.71%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.97%EV -15.98%E -6.27%K -10.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.59%EV -5.99%E -1.74%K -2.45%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-13 18:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.44%EV -2.48%E -1.01%K -1.71%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.97%EV -15.98%E -6.27%K -10.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.59%EV -5.99%E -1.74%K -2.45%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-13 18:04
Grosvenor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.44%EV -2.48%E -1.01%K -1.71%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.97%EV -15.98%E -6.27%K -10.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.59%EV -5.99%E -1.74%K -2.45%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-13 18:04
Svenska Spel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.44%EV -2.48%E -1.01%K -1.71%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.97%EV -15.98%E -6.27%K -10.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.59%EV -5.99%E -1.74%K -2.45%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-13 18:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.44%EV -2.48%E -1.01%K -1.71%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.97%EV -15.98%E -6.27%K -10.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.59%EV -5.99%E -1.74%K -2.45%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-13 18:05
LeoVegas🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.49%EV -3.28%E -1.35%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.72%EV -15.98%E -6.27%K -10.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -7.36%E -2.16%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-13 18:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.49%EV -3.28%E -1.35%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.72%EV -15.98%E -6.27%K -10.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -7.36%E -2.16%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-13 18:04
Pinnacle🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.00%EV -5.27%E -2.21%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.17%EV -5.44%E -1.89%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.82%EV -3.27%E -0.921%K -1.28%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-13 18:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.06%EV -5.27%E -2.21%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.20%EV -7.74%E -2.77%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -8.72%E -2.60%K -3.71%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-13 14:15
LiveScore Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.45%EV -5.27%E -2.21%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 35.94%EV -18.29%E -7.37%K -12.36%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.61%EV -8.72%E -2.60%K -3.71%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-13 18:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.45%EV -5.27%E -2.21%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 35.94%EV -18.29%E -7.37%K -12.36%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.61%EV -8.72%E -2.60%K -3.71%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-13 18:05
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.95%EV -5.67%E -2.39%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.99%EV -5.44%E -1.89%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.05%EV -4.63%E -1.32%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-13 14:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.32%EV -5.67%E -2.39%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.28%EV -7.74%E -2.77%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.41%EV -7.36%E -2.16%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-13 14:15
Tipico (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -8.45%E -3.67%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -7.74%E -2.77%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -7.36%E -2.16%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-13 18:44
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -8.45%E -3.67%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -7.74%E -2.77%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -10.08%E -3.05%K -4.38%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-13 18:49
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -8.45%E -3.67%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -11.04%E -4.09%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -7.36%E -2.16%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-13 14:15
1xBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.53%EV -8.45%E -3.67%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 32.59%EV -8.07%E -2.89%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 27.89%EV -11.17%E -3.43%K -4.94%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-13 18:54
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.07%EV -10.44%E -4.64%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.20%EV -7.74%E -2.77%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.74%EV -11.44%E -3.52%K -5.09%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-13 18:50
Sky Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.66%EV -10.44%E -4.64%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.45%EV -9.39%E -3.42%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -12.81%E -4.00%K -5.82%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-13 18:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.51%EV -10.44%E -4.64%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.55%EV -12.69%E -4.79%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.94%EV -10.08%E -3.05%K -4.38%G +0.000%12.5%2026-03-13 14:15
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.31%EV -10.44%E -4.64%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.16%EV -9.39%E -3.42%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -15.53%E -5.01%K -7.40%G +0.000%13.1%2026-03-13 18:30
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.31%EV -10.44%E -4.64%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.16%EV -9.39%E -3.42%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -15.53%E -5.01%K -7.40%G +0.000%13.1%2026-03-13 18:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.31%EV -10.44%E -4.64%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.16%EV -9.39%E -3.42%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -15.53%E -5.01%K -7.40%G +0.000%13.1%2026-03-13 18:30
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.31%EV -10.44%E -4.64%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.16%EV -9.39%E -3.42%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -15.53%E -5.01%K -7.40%G +0.000%13.1%2026-03-13 18:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.24%EV -10.44%E -4.64%K -8.35%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.09%EV -14.33%E -5.51%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.68%EV -18.26%E -6.09%K -9.13%G +0.000%16.2%2026-03-13 18:25
Betclic (FR)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.77%EV -11.24%E -5.04%K -9.14%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.24%EV -7.09%E -2.51%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 26.98%EV -8.17%E -2.43%K -3.45%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-13 18:34
Unibet (FR)🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 40.26%EV -11.64%E -5.24%K -9.54%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.50%EV -9.39%E -3.42%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 27.25%EV -10.63%E -3.24%K -4.66%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-13 18:54
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.19%EV -14.42%E -6.71%K -12.54%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.23%EV -14.33%E -5.51%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.58%EV -11.44%E -3.52%K -5.09%G +0.000%15.7%2026-03-13 18:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.20%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.16%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.63%1.9%2026-03-13 18:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.20%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.16%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.63%1.9%2026-03-13 18:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.14%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.65%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.21%2.1%2026-03-13 18:55
Smarkets◎2.42I 41.32%NM 39.94%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.44%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.62%3.5%2026-03-13 18:55