The School of Odds
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Al-Qadsiah v Al-Ahli

Kickoff: 2026-09-08 18:00 UTC

Final: Al-Qadsiah 3–2 Al-Ahli

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Qadsiah (Local)

Prediction 47.92%2.09fair odd
EV -4.16%
Edge -2.08%
Kelly -4.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.35%47.99%47.81%50.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.771.891.882.0056.50%53.04%53.19%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Ahli (Visit)

Prediction 26.81%3.73fair odd
EV -3.49%
Edge -0.971%
Kelly -1.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.55%26.69%26.91%27.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.363.353.6032.26%29.79%29.85%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.27%3.96fair odd
EV -3.97%
Edge -1.04%
Kelly -1.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.03%25.32%25.28%26.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.563.603.8030.30%28.07%27.78%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Qadsiah (Local): 47.92%; Al-Ahli (Visit): 26.81%; Draw: 25.27%. For Al-Ahli (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.73. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.60, with an expected value of -3.49%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coral🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -4.16%E -2.08%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.18%E -1.76%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -9.02%E -2.51%K -3.47%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-08 16:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -4.16%E -2.08%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.18%E -1.76%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -9.02%E -2.51%K -3.47%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-08 16:50
Pinnacle🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 47.78%EV -4.64%E -2.33%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.86%EV -5.10%E -1.44%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.36%EV -5.23%E -1.40%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-08 17:50
1xBet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.66%EV -6.07%E -3.10%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 26.61%EV -5.91%E -1.68%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 25.73%EV -8.27%E -2.28%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-08 17:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -6.55%E -3.36%K -6.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.86%E -2.60%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -9.02%E -2.51%K -3.47%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-08 17:30
Winamax (DE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.44%EV -7.99%E -4.16%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.60%EV -11.54%E -3.50%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.96%EV -7.76%E -2.13%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-08 17:35
betfred_uk🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.89%EV -8.47%E -4.43%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.72%EV -11.54%E -3.50%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.39%EV -5.23%E -1.40%K -1.90%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-08 17:00
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.35%EV -8.47%E -4.43%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -11.54%E -3.50%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -16.61%E -5.03%K -7.22%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-08 17:25
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.35%EV -8.47%E -4.43%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -11.54%E -3.50%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -16.61%E -5.03%K -7.22%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-08 17:30
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.35%EV -8.47%E -4.43%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -11.54%E -3.50%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -16.61%E -5.03%K -7.22%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-08 17:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.35%EV -8.47%E -4.43%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -11.54%E -3.50%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -16.61%E -5.03%K -7.22%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-08 17:25
SportsBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.29%EV -8.95%E -4.71%K -9.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -6.18%E -1.76%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -9.02%E -2.51%K -3.47%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-08 16:50
Unibet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.00%EV -9.91%E -5.27%K -11.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.94%EV -10.20%E -3.04%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.07%EV -9.02%E -2.51%K -3.47%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-08 17:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.00%EV -9.91%E -5.27%K -11.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.94%EV -10.20%E -3.04%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.07%EV -9.02%E -2.51%K -3.47%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-08 17:40
Grosvenor🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.00%EV -9.91%E -5.27%K -11.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.94%EV -10.20%E -3.04%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.07%EV -9.02%E -2.51%K -3.47%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-08 17:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.00%EV -9.91%E -5.27%K -11.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.94%EV -10.20%E -3.04%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.07%EV -9.02%E -2.51%K -3.47%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-08 17:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.00%EV -9.91%E -5.27%K -11.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.94%EV -10.20%E -3.04%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.07%EV -9.02%E -2.51%K -3.47%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-08 17:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.60%EV -9.91%E -5.27%K -11.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -12.88%E -3.96%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.86%EV -9.02%E -2.51%K -3.47%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-08 17:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.68%EV -10.39%E -5.55%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 26.24%EV -6.98%E -2.01%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 25.08%EV -8.27%E -2.28%K -3.14%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-08 17:33
Unibet (NL)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.49%EV -10.39%E -5.55%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.67%EV -8.86%E -2.60%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.84%EV -7.76%E -2.13%K -2.93%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-08 17:55
Paddy Power🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.32%EV -10.39%E -5.55%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -8.86%E -2.60%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.10%EV -9.02%E -2.51%K -3.47%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-08 16:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.32%EV -10.39%E -5.55%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -8.86%E -2.60%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.10%EV -9.02%E -2.51%K -3.47%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-08 17:50
Sky Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.87%EV -11.34%E -6.13%K -13.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -11.54%E -3.50%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -11.55%E -3.30%K -4.62%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-08 16:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -12.30%E -6.72%K -14.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -3.49%E -0.971%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -3.97%E -1.04%K -1.42%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-08 16:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.31%EV -12.30%E -6.72%K -14.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.79%EV -11.54%E -3.50%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.90%EV -10.29%E -2.90%K -4.03%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-08 17:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 48.10%EV -12.78%E -7.02%K -15.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.53%EV -11.54%E -3.50%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.37%EV -12.82%E -3.71%K -5.23%G +0.000%14.2%2026-09-08 17:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 48.08%EV -12.78%E -7.02%K -15.59%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.92%EV -12.88%E -3.96%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.00%EV -11.55%E -3.30%K -4.62%G +0.000%14.3%2026-09-08 17:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 48.38%EV -13.26%E -7.33%K -16.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.95%EV -12.88%E -3.96%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.67%EV -10.29%E -2.90%K -4.03%G +0.000%14.2%2026-09-08 17:55
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 48.06%EV -13.74%E -7.63%K -17.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.91%EV -16.90%E -5.45%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.03%EV -9.02%E -2.51%K -3.47%G +0.000%15.6%2026-09-08 17:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 48.40%EV -15.18%E -8.58%K -19.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.77%EV -14.22%E -4.44%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.83%EV -12.82%E -3.71%K -5.23%G +0.000%16.7%2026-09-08 17:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.87%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.89%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.24%0.3%2026-09-08 17:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.87%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.89%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.24%0.3%2026-09-08 17:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.70%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.15%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.15%0.7%2026-09-08 17:55
Smarkets◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.22%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.23%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.55%1.7%2026-09-08 17:55
Kalshi◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.05%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.49%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.46%2.0%2026-09-08 17:40