The School of Odds
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Al-Okhdood v Al-Fayha

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Okhdood (Local)

Prediction 24.62%4.06fair odd
EV +1.93%
Edge +0.465%
Kelly +0.613%
Growth +0.012%

assuming max odds 4.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.43%24.66%24.58%25.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.643.604.1428.99%27.49%27.78%24.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Fayha (Visit)

Prediction 47.74%2.09fair odd
EV -3.56%
Edge -1.76%
Kelly -3.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.26%47.71%47.86%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.921.932.0254.64%52.06%51.81%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.64%3.62fair odd
EV -2.43%
Edge -0.689%
Kelly -0.961%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.95%27.63%27.56%29.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.263.303.5334.72%30.72%30.30%28.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Okhdood (Local): 24.62%; Al-Fayha (Visit): 47.74%; Draw: 27.64%. For Al-Okhdood (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.06. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.14, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.93%.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯4.14I 24.15%NM 23.43%EV +1.93%E +0.465%K +0.613%G +0.012%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.03%EV -3.56%E -1.76%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.54%EV -6.02%E -1.77%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-07 18:50
Pinnacle🎯3.92I 25.51%NM 24.27%EV -3.49%E -0.891%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.78%EV -6.91%E -3.54%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.95%EV -2.43%E -0.689%K -0.961%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-07 17:19
Tipico (DE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.62%EV -3.98%E -1.02%K -1.37%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.47%EV -9.29%E -4.89%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -8.79%E -2.66%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-07 17:30
Coral🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.14%EV -7.68%E -2.05%K -2.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.13%EV -4.52%E -2.26%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -6.02%E -1.77%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-07 13:19
Unibet (UK)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.81%EV -7.68%E -2.05%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.99%EV -5.47%E -2.76%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.20%EV -8.79%E -2.66%K -3.82%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-07 14:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -8.91%E -2.41%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -4.52%E -2.26%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.02%E -1.77%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-07 13:19
SportsBet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -8.91%E -2.41%K -3.30%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -6.91%E -3.54%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -8.79%E -2.66%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-07 13:20
Betclic (FR)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.58%EV -8.91%E -2.41%K -3.30%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.86%EV -9.29%E -4.89%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -8.79%E -2.66%K -3.82%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-07 18:34
Unibet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.20%EV -10.14%E -2.78%K -3.83%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 46.93%EV -6.43%E -3.28%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -8.79%E -2.66%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-07 18:09
Unibet (FR)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 24.67%EV -10.14%E -2.78%K -3.83%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 47.63%EV -9.77%E -5.17%K -10.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.70%EV -10.17%E -3.13%K -4.52%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-07 18:55
Unibet (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -11.37%E -3.16%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -6.91%E -3.54%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -8.79%E -2.66%K -3.82%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-07 18:55
Grosvenor🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -11.37%E -3.16%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -6.91%E -3.54%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -8.79%E -2.66%K -3.82%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-07 18:54
Unibet (NL)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -11.37%E -3.16%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -6.91%E -3.54%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -8.79%E -2.66%K -3.82%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-07 18:55
Svenska Spel🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -11.37%E -3.16%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -6.91%E -3.54%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -8.79%E -2.66%K -3.82%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-07 18:54
ATG (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -11.37%E -3.16%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -6.91%E -3.54%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -8.79%E -2.66%K -3.82%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-07 18:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.17%EV -11.37%E -3.16%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 46.95%EV -7.86%E -4.07%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.88%EV -10.17%E -3.13%K -4.52%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-07 18:09
Paddy Power🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.05%EV -11.37%E -3.16%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.21%EV -8.82%E -4.62%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.74%EV -10.17%E -3.13%K -4.52%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-07 16:04
888sport🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.35%EV -11.37%E -3.16%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.38%EV -11.68%E -6.31%K -13.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.27%EV -14.32%E -4.62%K -6.82%G +0.000%14.1%2026-03-07 18:49
William Hill🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.35%EV -11.37%E -3.16%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.38%EV -11.68%E -6.31%K -13.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.27%EV -14.32%E -4.62%K -6.82%G +0.000%14.1%2026-03-07 18:49
888sport (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.35%EV -11.37%E -3.16%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.38%EV -11.68%E -6.31%K -13.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.27%EV -14.32%E -4.62%K -6.82%G +0.000%14.1%2026-03-07 18:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.35%EV -11.37%E -3.16%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.38%EV -11.68%E -6.31%K -13.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.27%EV -14.32%E -4.62%K -6.82%G +0.000%14.1%2026-03-07 18:50
Winamax (DE)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.71%EV -12.60%E -3.55%K -4.94%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.05%EV -7.38%E -3.81%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.24%EV -7.41%E -2.21%K -3.15%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-07 14:49
LeoVegas🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.54%EV -12.60%E -3.55%K -4.94%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 46.98%EV -7.86%E -4.07%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.48%EV -8.79%E -2.66%K -3.82%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-07 18:55
LiveScore Bet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.41%EV -13.83%E -3.95%K -5.53%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 46.80%EV -9.29%E -4.89%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.79%EV -11.55%E -3.61%K -5.25%G +0.000%12.5%2026-03-07 18:55
Virgin Bet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.41%EV -13.83%E -3.95%K -5.53%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 46.80%EV -9.29%E -4.89%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.79%EV -11.55%E -3.61%K -5.25%G +0.000%12.5%2026-03-07 18:55
Sky Bet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.24%EV -13.83%E -3.95%K -5.53%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.26%EV -8.82%E -4.62%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.50%EV -14.32%E -4.62%K -6.82%G +0.000%13.2%2026-03-07 13:19
BoyleSports🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.07%EV -13.83%E -3.95%K -5.53%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 47.94%EV -12.64%E -6.90%K -15.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.99%EV -10.17%E -3.13%K -4.52%G +0.000%14.0%2026-03-07 13:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 24.23%EV -13.83%E -3.95%K -5.53%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 46.33%EV -12.64%E -6.90%K -15.22%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.44%EV -20.40%E -7.08%K -10.85%G +0.000%17.9%2026-03-07 13:19
Winamax (FR)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.92%EV -15.06%E -4.37%K -6.15%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 46.57%EV -8.34%E -4.34%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.51%EV -10.17%E -3.13%K -4.52%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-07 14:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.20I 23.81%NM 23.46%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.78%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.76%1.5%2026-03-07 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.20I 23.81%NM 23.46%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.78%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.76%1.5%2026-03-07 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.20I 23.81%NM 23.37%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.59%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.04%1.9%2026-03-07 18:10
Kalshi◎4.17I 23.98%NM 23.51%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.02%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.46%2.0%2026-03-07 18:10
Smarkets◎4.10I 24.39%NM 23.69%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.56%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.75%3.0%2026-03-07 18:55