The School of Odds
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Al-Nassr v Al-Taawoun

Kickoff: 2026-08-28 18:00 UTC

Final: Al-Nassr 2–1 Al-Taawoun

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Nassr (Local)

Prediction 74.50%1.34fair odd
EV -4.64%
Edge -3.62%
Kelly -16.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.76%74.51%74.48%78.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.181.231.221.2884.75%81.59%81.97%78.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Taawoun (Visit)

Prediction 10.44%9.58fair odd
EV +11.71%
Edge +1.09%
Kelly +1.21%
Growth +0.141%

assuming max odds 10.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.73%10.40%10.56%11.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.508.828.5010.7013.33%11.33%11.76%9.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 15.06%6.64fair odd
EV +17.14%
Edge +2.20%
Kelly +2.53%
Growth +0.433%

assuming max odds 7.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.50%15.08%14.96%16.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.205.825.507.7819.23%17.18%18.18%12.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Nassr (Local): 74.50%; Al-Taawoun (Visit): 10.44%; Draw: 15.06%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.64. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.78, corresponding to a positive expected value of +17.14%.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 78.41%EV -7.62%E -6.14%K -31.73%G +0.000%10.70I 9.35%NM 9.09%EV +11.71%E +1.09%K +1.21%G +0.141%7.78I 12.85%NM 12.50%EV +17.14%E +2.20%K +2.53%G +0.433%2.8%2026-08-28 17:55
Pinnacle🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.28%EV -8.36%E -6.80%K -36.35%G +0.000%9.85I 10.15%NM 9.53%EV +2.83%E +0.288%K +0.320%G +0.009%6.61I 15.13%NM 14.19%EV -0.479%E -0.073%K -0.085%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-28 17:46
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.21%EV -4.64%E -3.62%K -16.55%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -11.26%E -1.32%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.61%EV -2.14%E -0.329%K -0.388%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-28 17:55
Coral🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.21%EV -4.64%E -3.62%K -16.55%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -11.26%E -1.32%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.61%EV -2.14%E -0.329%K -0.388%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-28 17:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 73.77%EV -8.36%E -6.80%K -36.35%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.71%EV -19.09%E -2.46%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.52%EV -5.90%E -0.944%K -1.12%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-28 17:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.46%EV -10.60%E -8.83%K -52.98%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.74%EV +9.62%E +0.916%K +1.01%G +0.097%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.80%EV -6.65%E -1.07%K -1.28%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-28 17:31
Unibet (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.87%E -5.50%K -27.48%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.31%EV -6.04%E -0.671%K -0.755%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.46%EV -9.66%E -1.61%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-28 17:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 74.09%EV -8.36%E -6.80%K -36.35%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.72%EV -11.26%E -1.32%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.19%EV -9.66%E -1.61%K -1.93%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-28 17:44
888sport🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.56%EV -10.60%E -8.83%K -52.98%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.53%EV -11.26%E -1.32%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.91%EV -9.66%E -1.61%K -1.93%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-28 17:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.56%EV -10.60%E -8.83%K -52.98%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.53%EV -11.26%E -1.32%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.91%EV -9.66%E -1.61%K -1.93%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-28 17:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.56%EV -10.60%E -8.83%K -52.98%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.53%EV -11.26%E -1.32%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.91%EV -9.66%E -1.61%K -1.93%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-28 17:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 73.21%EV -9.11%E -7.46%K -41.39%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.91%EV -21.70%E -2.89%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.89%EV -9.66%E -1.61%K -1.93%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-28 17:40
SportsBet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.74%EV -9.85%E -8.14%K -46.91%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.73%EV +9.62%E +0.916%K +1.01%G +0.097%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.53%EV -11.17%E -1.89%K -2.28%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-28 17:54
Unibet (FR)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 73.56%EV -11.34%E -9.53%K -59.69%G +0.000%7.90I 12.66%NM 11.08%EV -17.52%E -2.22%K -2.54%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.36%EV -14.18%E -2.49%K -3.02%G +0.000%14.2%2026-08-28 17:40
betfred_uk🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.20%EV -6.87%E -5.50%K -27.48%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.17%EV -6.04%E -0.671%K -0.755%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -17.19%E -3.13%K -3.82%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-28 16:05
Unibet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.76%EV -6.87%E -5.50%K -27.48%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.70%EV -11.26%E -1.32%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.54%EV -17.19%E -3.13%K -3.82%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-28 17:40
Grosvenor🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.76%EV -6.87%E -5.50%K -27.48%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.70%EV -11.26%E -1.32%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.54%EV -17.19%E -3.13%K -3.82%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-28 17:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.76%EV -6.87%E -5.50%K -27.48%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.70%EV -11.26%E -1.32%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.54%EV -17.19%E -3.13%K -3.82%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-28 17:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.76%EV -6.87%E -5.50%K -27.48%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.70%EV -11.26%E -1.32%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.54%EV -17.19%E -3.13%K -3.82%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-28 17:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.76%EV -6.87%E -5.50%K -27.48%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.70%EV -11.26%E -1.32%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.54%EV -17.19%E -3.13%K -3.82%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-28 17:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.76%EV -6.87%E -5.50%K -27.48%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.70%EV -11.26%E -1.32%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.54%EV -17.19%E -3.13%K -3.82%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-28 17:40
William Hill🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 73.67%EV -9.11%E -7.46%K -41.39%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.99%EV -6.04%E -0.671%K -0.755%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.34%EV -17.19%E -3.13%K -3.82%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-28 16:10
Paddy Power🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.73%EV -10.60%E -8.83%K -52.98%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.97%EV +4.40%E +0.440%K +0.489%G +0.022%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -17.19%E -3.13%K -3.82%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-28 17:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.73%EV -10.60%E -8.83%K -52.98%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.97%EV +4.40%E +0.440%K +0.489%G +0.022%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -17.19%E -3.13%K -3.82%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-28 17:55
Sky Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 73.99%EV -10.60%E -8.83%K -52.98%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.87%EV -6.04%E -0.671%K -0.755%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -17.19%E -3.13%K -3.82%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-28 17:55
BoyleSports🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 72.76%EV -9.11%E -7.46%K -41.39%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.10%EV -16.48%E -2.06%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -17.19%E -3.13%K -3.82%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-28 17:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 73.02%EV -9.11%E -7.46%K -41.39%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.48%EV -11.26%E -1.32%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.50%EV -18.70%E -3.46%K -4.25%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-28 17:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 72.96%EV -9.85%E -8.14%K -46.91%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.39%EV -11.26%E -1.32%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.66%EV -20.20%E -3.81%K -4.70%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-28 17:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 72.96%EV -9.85%E -8.14%K -46.91%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.39%EV -11.26%E -1.32%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.66%EV -20.20%E -3.81%K -4.70%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-28 17:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 73.22%EV -12.09%E -10.24%K -67.14%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.16%EV -11.26%E -1.32%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.62%EV -21.71%E -4.17%K -5.17%G +0.000%15.7%2026-08-28 17:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.29I 77.52%NM 77.00%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.95%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.05%0.7%2026-08-28 17:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.29I 77.52%NM 77.00%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.95%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.05%0.7%2026-08-28 17:56
Smarkets◎1.29I 77.52%NM 77.00%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.95%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.05%0.7%2026-08-28 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.29I 77.52%NM 77.00%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.95%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.05%0.7%2026-08-28 17:55
Kalshi◎1.27I 78.74%NM 77.39%11.11I 9.00%NM 8.85%7.14I 14.01%NM 13.77%1.7%2026-08-28 17:20