The School of Odds
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Al-Nassr v Al-Ahli

Kickoff: 2026-04-29 18:00 UTC

Final: Al-Nassr 2–0 Al-Ahli

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Nassr (Local)

Prediction 48.54%2.06fair odd
EV -2.93%
Edge -1.46%
Kelly -2.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.60%48.65%48.34%50.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.781.911.902.0056.18%52.48%52.49%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Ahli (Visit)

Prediction 26.61%3.76fair odd
EV -4.20%
Edge -1.17%
Kelly -1.62%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.55%26.43%26.68%29.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.213.173.6033.90%31.19%31.50%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.85%4.02fair odd
EV -4.06%
Edge -1.05%
Kelly -1.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.99%24.91%24.98%26.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.603.633.8631.25%27.81%27.59%25.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Nassr (Local): 48.54%; Al-Ahli (Visit): 26.61%; Draw: 24.85%. For Al-Nassr (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.06. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.00, with an expected value of -2.93%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.60%EV -2.93%E -1.46%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -17.51%E -5.65%K -8.34%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.98%EV -9.28%E -2.54%K -3.50%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-23 12:39
Unibet (NL)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.60%EV -2.93%E -1.46%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -17.51%E -5.65%K -8.34%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.98%EV -9.28%E -2.54%K -3.50%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-23 12:39
Grosvenor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.60%EV -2.93%E -1.46%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -17.51%E -5.65%K -8.34%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.98%EV -9.28%E -2.54%K -3.50%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-23 12:39
Unibet (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.60%EV -2.93%E -1.46%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -17.51%E -5.65%K -8.34%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.98%EV -9.28%E -2.54%K -3.50%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-23 12:39
Svenska Spel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.60%EV -2.93%E -1.46%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -17.51%E -5.65%K -8.34%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.98%EV -9.28%E -2.54%K -3.50%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-23 12:39
ATG (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.60%EV -2.93%E -1.46%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -17.51%E -5.65%K -8.34%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.98%EV -9.28%E -2.54%K -3.50%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-23 12:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 45.88%EV -4.87%E -2.48%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.48%EV -18.84%E -6.18%K -9.19%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.64%EV -9.28%E -2.54%K -3.50%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-23 12:39
LeoVegas🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 45.88%EV -4.87%E -2.48%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.48%EV -18.84%E -6.18%K -9.19%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.64%EV -9.28%E -2.54%K -3.50%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-23 12:39
betfred_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.17%EV -5.35%E -2.75%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -13.52%E -4.16%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -6.80%E -1.81%K -2.47%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-22 20:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 45.72%EV -6.33%E -3.28%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.42%EV -20.17%E -6.72%K -10.08%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.86%EV -11.77%E -3.32%K -4.62%G +0.000%13.3%2026-04-23 12:39
Virgin Bet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 45.72%EV -6.33%E -3.28%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.42%EV -20.17%E -6.72%K -10.08%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.86%EV -11.77%E -3.32%K -4.62%G +0.000%13.3%2026-04-23 12:39
1xBet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.30%E -3.82%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.48%EV -6.07%E -1.72%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -5.56%E -1.46%K -1.98%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 16:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -7.30%E -3.82%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -9.53%E -2.80%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -10.53%E -2.92%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-23 05:24
PMU (FR)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 45.60%EV -7.30%E -3.82%K -8.02%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.52%EV -21.50%E -7.29%K -11.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.88%EV -13.01%E -3.72%K -5.20%G +0.000%14.8%2026-04-23 12:39
SportsBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.18%EV -7.78%E -4.10%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -12.19%E -3.69%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.09%EV -5.56%E -1.46%K -1.98%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-22 20:01
Paddy Power🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.97%EV -7.78%E -4.10%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.04%EV -13.52%E -4.16%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.99%EV -5.56%E -1.46%K -1.98%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-22 20:01
Pinnacle🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.46%EV -8.27%E -4.37%K -9.29%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.33%EV -5.53%E -1.56%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 24.22%EV -4.06%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 07:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.26%EV -10.21%E -5.52%K -12.01%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 26.81%EV -11.39%E -3.42%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 24.94%EV -11.02%E -3.08%K -4.27%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-23 05:25
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.51%EV -10.21%E -5.52%K -12.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.64%EV -12.19%E -3.69%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.85%EV -15.50%E -4.56%K -6.46%G +0.000%13.8%2026-04-23 04:04
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.51%EV -10.21%E -5.52%K -12.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.64%EV -12.19%E -3.69%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.85%EV -15.50%E -4.56%K -6.46%G +0.000%13.8%2026-04-23 04:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.51%EV -10.21%E -5.52%K -12.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.64%EV -12.19%E -3.69%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.85%EV -15.50%E -4.56%K -6.46%G +0.000%13.8%2026-04-23 04:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.51%EV -10.21%E -5.52%K -12.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.64%EV -12.19%E -3.69%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.85%EV -15.50%E -4.56%K -6.46%G +0.000%13.8%2026-04-23 04:05
Sky Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 46.61%EV -10.21%E -5.52%K -12.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.75%EV -20.17%E -6.72%K -10.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.64%EV -13.01%E -3.72%K -5.20%G +0.000%16.0%2026-04-22 20:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 48.34%EV -10.69%E -5.81%K -12.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.95%EV -12.19%E -3.69%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.71%EV -10.53%E -2.92%K -4.05%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-23 18:05
Tipico (DE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -11.18%E -6.11%K -13.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -4.20%E -1.17%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -5.56%E -1.46%K -1.98%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-23 16:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 46.65%EV -11.18%E -6.11%K -13.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.68%EV -14.85%E -4.64%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.68%EV -20.47%E -6.40%K -9.30%G +0.000%17.1%2026-04-22 20:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 47.84%EV -11.66%E -6.41%K -14.23%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.64%EV -16.18%E -5.14%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.52%EV -11.77%E -3.32%K -4.62%G +0.000%14.9%2026-04-23 05:24
Winamax (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 47.63%EV -13.61%E -7.64%K -17.44%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 27.80%EV -18.84%E -6.18%K -9.19%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.57%EV -14.25%E -4.13%K -5.82%G +0.000%18.0%2026-04-23 05:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.82I 54.95%NM 47.15%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.24%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.61%16.5%2026-04-23 18:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.90I 52.63%NM 42.77%2.86I 34.97%NM 28.41%2.82I 35.46%NM 28.82%23.1%2026-04-23 21:14
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.90I 52.63%NM 42.77%2.86I 34.97%NM 28.41%2.82I 35.46%NM 28.82%23.1%2026-04-23 21:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.90I 52.63%NM 42.77%2.86I 34.97%NM 28.41%2.82I 35.46%NM 28.82%23.1%2026-04-23 21:20