L’École des cotes

Al-Najma v Al-Okhdood

Coup d’envoi : 2026-02-28 19:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

29 opérateurs (6 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Al-Najma (Local)

Prévision 49.07%2.04cote équitable
EV +0.602%
Avantage +0.294%
Kelly +0.573%
Croissance +0.003%

avec la cote maximale 2.05

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
43.53%48.43%49.15%50.28%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.751.921.932.0557.14%51.95%51.81%48.78%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Al-Okhdood (Visiteur)

Prévision 26.08%3.83cote équitable
EV +0.415%
Avantage +0.108%
Kelly +0.145%
Croissance +0.001%

avec la cote maximale 3.85

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
24.55%26.74%26.09%30.98%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.883.383.353.8534.72%29.61%29.85%25.97%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 24.84%4.03cote équitable
EV -1.12%
Avantage -0.281%
Kelly -0.376%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.98

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
23.85%24.84%24.76%27.72%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.103.553.503.9832.26%28.18%28.57%25.13%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (29 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
888sport2.05I 48.78%NM 43.53%EV +0.602%E +0.294%K +0.573%G +0.003%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.98%EV -24.88%E -8.64%K -13.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.49%EV -13.05%E -3.73%K -5.22%G +0.000%12.1%2026-02-28 13:45
888sport (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 43.53%EV +0.602%E +0.294%K +0.573%G +0.003%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.98%EV -24.88%E -8.64%K -13.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.49%EV -13.05%E -3.73%K -5.22%G +0.000%12.1%2026-02-28 13:45
Mr Green (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 43.53%EV +0.602%E +0.294%K +0.573%G +0.003%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.98%EV -24.88%E -8.64%K -13.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.49%EV -13.05%E -3.73%K -5.22%G +0.000%12.1%2026-02-28 13:45
William Hill2.05I 48.78%NM 43.53%EV +0.602%E +0.294%K +0.573%G +0.003%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.98%EV -24.88%E -8.64%K -13.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.49%EV -13.05%E -3.73%K -5.22%G +0.000%12.1%2026-02-28 13:45
Unibet (SE)2.02I 49.50%NM 45.14%EV -0.870%E -0.431%K -0.853%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -13.93%E -4.22%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.22%EV -16.77%E -5.01%K -7.14%G +0.000%9.7%2026-02-28 18:34
Grosvenor2.02I 49.50%NM 45.14%EV -0.870%E -0.431%K -0.853%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -13.93%E -4.22%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.22%EV -16.77%E -5.01%K -7.14%G +0.000%9.7%2026-02-28 18:34
Unibet (NL)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.94%EV -1.85%E -0.926%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.43%EV -12.63%E -3.77%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -14.29%E -4.14%K -5.83%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-28 18:55
ATG (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.94%EV -1.85%E -0.926%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.43%EV -12.63%E -3.77%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -14.29%E -4.14%K -5.83%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-28 18:55
Unibet2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -1.85%E -0.926%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -13.93%E -4.22%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -13.05%E -3.73%K -5.22%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-28 18:54
Svenska Spel2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -1.85%E -0.926%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -13.93%E -4.22%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -13.05%E -3.73%K -5.22%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-28 18:54
LeoVegas (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.02%EV -1.85%E -0.926%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.70%EV -15.23%E -4.69%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.28%EV -18.01%E -5.46%K -7.83%G +0.000%11.1%2026-02-28 18:34
LeoVegas1.97I 50.76%NM 46.13%EV -3.32%E -1.69%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.54%EV -13.93%E -4.22%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.34%EV -14.29%E -4.14%K -5.83%G +0.000%10.0%2026-02-28 18:54
Virgin Bet1.94I 51.55%NM 45.77%EV -4.80%E -2.47%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.32%EV -15.23%E -4.69%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.91%EV -18.01%E -5.46%K -7.83%G +0.000%12.6%2026-02-28 18:55
LiveScore Bet1.94I 51.55%NM 45.77%EV -4.80%E -2.47%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.32%EV -15.23%E -4.69%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.91%EV -18.01%E -5.46%K -7.83%G +0.000%12.6%2026-02-28 18:55
1xBet1.93I 51.81%NM 50.28%EV -5.29%E -2.74%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.21%EV +0.415%E +0.108%K +0.145%G +0.001%3.96I 25.25%NM 24.51%EV -1.62%E -0.408%K -0.546%G +0.000%3.0%2026-02-28 18:50
Coral1.91I 52.36%NM 49.70%EV -6.27%E -3.28%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.32%EV -2.19%E -0.585%K -0.798%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.98%EV -5.59%E -1.47%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-28 18:50
Ladbrokes (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 49.54%EV -6.27%E -3.28%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.23%EV -2.19%E -0.585%K -0.798%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.23%EV -6.83%E -1.82%K -2.49%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-28 18:50
Unibet (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 48.16%EV -6.27%E -3.28%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -8.71%E -2.49%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -10.56%E -2.93%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-28 18:49
Pinnacle1.89I 52.91%NM 50.22%EV -7.25%E -3.84%K -8.15%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 25.93%EV -4.54%E -1.24%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.85%EV -1.12%E -0.281%K -0.376%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-28 18:54
Winamax (DE)1.88I 53.19%NM 48.68%EV -7.74%E -4.12%K -8.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -11.32%E -3.33%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -6.83%E -1.82%K -2.49%G +0.000%9.3%2026-02-28 18:49
Winamax (FR)1.84I 54.35%NM 48.70%EV -9.70%E -5.27%K -11.55%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.75%EV -12.63%E -3.77%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.55%EV -9.32%E -2.55%K -3.52%G +0.000%11.6%2026-02-28 18:50
SportsBet1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%EV -10.19%E -5.57%K -12.28%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.86%EV -3.50%E -0.945%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.86%EV -8.08%E -2.18%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-28 18:54
Tipico (DE)1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%EV -10.19%E -5.57%K -12.28%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.86%EV -3.50%E -0.945%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.86%EV -8.08%E -2.18%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-28 18:49
Betclic (FR)1.83I 54.64%NM 49.68%EV -10.19%E -5.57%K -12.28%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.61%EV -7.41%E -2.09%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 24.71%EV -8.57%E -2.33%K -3.20%G +0.000%10.0%2026-02-28 18:48
Unibet (FR)1.82I 54.95%NM 49.12%EV -10.69%E -5.87%K -13.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.91%EV -10.02%E -2.90%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 24.97%EV -11.06%E -3.09%K -4.29%G +0.000%11.9%2026-02-28 18:54
Paddy Power1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%EV -11.67%E -6.48%K -14.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -6.11%E -1.70%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -10.56%E -2.93%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.1%2026-02-28 18:53
Sky Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 49.30%EV -11.67%E -6.48%K -14.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.35%EV -8.71%E -2.49%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.35%EV -13.05%E -3.73%K -5.22%G +0.000%12.7%2026-02-28 18:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 47.73%EV -11.67%E -6.48%K -14.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.55%EV -8.71%E -2.49%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.72%EV -22.98%E -7.41%K -10.94%G +0.000%16.4%2026-02-28 18:54
BoyleSports1.75I 57.14%NM 49.19%EV -14.12%E -8.07%K -18.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.90%EV -16.54%E -5.17%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.91%EV -10.56%E -2.93%K -4.06%G +0.000%16.2%2026-02-28 18:34
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (4)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 50.63%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.68%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.68%1.3%2026-02-28 18:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 50.63%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.68%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.68%1.3%2026-02-28 18:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.95I 51.28%NM 50.63%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.68%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.68%1.3%2026-02-28 18:45
Smarkets1.93I 51.81%NM 50.73%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.48%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.79%2.1%2026-02-28 18:54