The School of Odds
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Al-Najma v Al-Hazem

Kickoff: 2026-05-09 16:17 UTC

Final: Al-Najma 2–2 Al-Hazem

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Najma (Local)

Prediction 30.13%3.32fair odd
EV +2.45%
Edge +0.720%
Kelly +1.02%
Growth +0.025%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.92%29.77%30.15%31.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.043.053.4035.71%32.95%32.79%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Hazem (Visit)

Prediction 43.93%2.28fair odd
EV -3.80%
Edge -1.74%
Kelly -3.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.19

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.32%44.26%43.95%46.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.072.102.1951.28%48.30%47.62%45.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.94%3.85fair odd
EV -3.24%
Edge -0.868%
Kelly -1.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.72%25.97%25.89%28.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.413.403.7333.33%29.30%29.41%26.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Najma (Local): 30.13%; Al-Hazem (Visit): 43.93%; Draw: 25.94%. For Al-Najma (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.32. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.45%.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV +2.45%E +0.720%K +1.02%G +0.025%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -14.34%E -7.36%K -15.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -9.20%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-09 16:15
1xBet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 29.38%EV -0.566%E -0.172%K -0.246%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 44.27%EV -3.80%E -1.74%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 26.35%EV -4.53%E -1.23%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-09 16:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -3.58%E -1.12%K -1.63%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -7.75%E -3.69%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -6.61%E -1.84%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-09 16:14
Unibet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -5.09%E -1.61%K -2.37%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.78%EV -7.75%E -3.69%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -11.80%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-09 16:14
Unibet (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -5.09%E -1.61%K -2.37%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.78%EV -7.75%E -3.69%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -11.80%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-09 16:15
Unibet (NL)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -5.09%E -1.61%K -2.37%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.78%EV -7.75%E -3.69%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -11.80%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-09 16:14
Grosvenor🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -5.09%E -1.61%K -2.37%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.78%EV -7.75%E -3.69%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -11.80%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-09 16:14
ATG (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -5.09%E -1.61%K -2.37%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.78%EV -7.75%E -3.69%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -11.80%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-09 16:15
Svenska Spel🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -5.09%E -1.61%K -2.37%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.78%EV -7.75%E -3.69%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -11.80%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-09 16:14
Pinnacle🎯3.14I 31.85%NM 30.34%EV -5.39%E -1.72%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.11%EV -5.12%E -2.37%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.54%EV -3.24%E -0.868%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-09 16:14
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -6.59%E -2.13%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -7.75%E -3.69%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -9.20%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-09 16:14
Coral🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -6.59%E -2.13%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -7.75%E -3.69%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -9.20%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-09 16:15
LeoVegas🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.39%EV -6.59%E -2.13%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.81%EV -8.63%E -4.15%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.80%EV -11.80%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-09 16:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.54%EV -8.10%E -2.66%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.95%EV -9.95%E -4.85%K -9.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -11.80%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-09 16:15
Virgin Bet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.25%EV -8.10%E -2.66%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 43.72%EV -10.39%E -5.09%K -9.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -14.39%E -4.36%K -6.26%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-09 16:14
LiveScore Bet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.25%EV -8.10%E -2.66%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 43.72%EV -10.39%E -5.09%K -9.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -14.39%E -4.36%K -6.26%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-09 16:14
Betclic (FR)🎯3.02I 33.11%NM 30.04%EV -9.00%E -2.98%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.26%EV -9.95%E -4.85%K -9.48%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 25.70%EV -8.43%E -2.39%K -3.33%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-09 16:12
betfred_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -9.61%E -3.20%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -7.75%E -3.69%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -9.20%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-09 16:12
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -9.61%E -3.20%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -7.75%E -3.69%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -9.20%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-09 16:15
SportsBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -9.61%E -3.20%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -7.75%E -3.69%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -11.80%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-09 16:14
PMU (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.34%EV -9.61%E -3.20%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.58%EV -11.27%E -5.58%K -11.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.08%EV -15.69%E -4.83%K -6.97%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-09 16:14
Winamax (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.27%EV -12.62%E -4.35%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.18%EV -7.75%E -3.69%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.55%EV -7.91%E -2.23%K -3.10%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-09 16:14
Sky Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.68%EV -12.62%E -4.35%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.36%EV -7.75%E -3.69%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -14.39%E -4.36%K -6.26%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-09 16:14
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.36%EV -12.62%E -4.35%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.95%EV -9.95%E -4.85%K -9.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.68%EV -14.39%E -4.36%K -6.26%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-09 16:14
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.36%EV -12.62%E -4.35%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.95%EV -9.95%E -4.85%K -9.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.68%EV -14.39%E -4.36%K -6.26%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-09 16:14
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.36%EV -12.62%E -4.35%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.95%EV -9.95%E -4.85%K -9.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.68%EV -14.39%E -4.36%K -6.26%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-09 16:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 29.41%EV -13.22%E -4.59%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 42.35%EV -12.15%E -6.07%K -12.15%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.24%EV -22.17%E -7.39%K -11.09%G +0.000%18.1%2026-05-09 16:14
Winamax (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.21%EV -14.13%E -4.96%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.38%EV -9.95%E -4.85%K -9.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.41%EV -9.20%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-09 16:14
Unibet (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 30.41%EV -14.13%E -4.96%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.33%EV -12.15%E -6.07%K -12.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.26%EV -14.39%E -4.36%K -6.26%G +0.000%15.4%2026-05-09 16:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 30.98%EV -15.63%E -5.58%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.32%EV -9.95%E -4.85%K -9.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.69%EV -15.69%E -4.83%K -6.97%G +0.000%15.3%2026-05-09 16:15
BoyleSports🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 30.90%EV -15.63%E -5.58%K -8.68%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 44.37%EV -14.34%E -7.36%K -15.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.72%EV -9.20%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%15.6%2026-05-09 16:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.30I 30.30%NM 29.95%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.34%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.71%1.2%2026-05-09 16:14
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.30I 30.30%NM 29.95%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.34%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.71%1.2%2026-05-09 16:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.30I 30.30%NM 29.95%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.34%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.71%1.2%2026-05-09 16:14
Smarkets◎3.25I 30.77%NM 29.70%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.48%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.81%3.6%2026-05-09 16:15
Kalshi◎3.23I 30.96%NM 29.50%2.13I 46.95%NM 44.74%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.76%4.9%2026-05-09 16:15