The School of Odds
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Al-Kholood v Al-Taawoun

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 16:10 UTC

Final: Al-Kholood 3–2 Al-Taawoun

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Kholood (Local)

Prediction 32.22%3.10fair odd
EV -4.94%
Edge -1.68%
Kelly -2.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.17%32.12%32.23%34.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.802.802.9538.17%35.72%35.71%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Taawoun (Visit)

Prediction 40.16%2.49fair odd
EV -2.81%
Edge -1.16%
Kelly -1.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.34%40.11%40.18%41.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.082.262.262.4248.08%44.33%44.25%41.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.62%3.62fair odd
EV -3.34%
Edge -0.955%
Kelly -1.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.68%27.77%27.59%29.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.273.303.5033.33%30.55%30.30%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Kholood (Local): 32.22%; Al-Taawoun (Visit): 40.16%; Draw: 27.62%. For Al-Taawoun (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.49. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.42, with an expected value of -2.81%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.17%EV -4.94%E -1.68%K -2.53%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.79%EV -11.65%E -5.29%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -6.10%E -1.80%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-22 06:59
Tipico (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.17%EV -4.94%E -1.68%K -2.53%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.79%EV -11.65%E -5.29%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -6.10%E -1.80%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-22 06:14
Pinnacle🎯2.94I 34.01%NM 32.42%EV -5.26%E -1.79%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.38%EV -2.81%E -1.16%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.20%EV -6.66%E -1.97%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-22 12:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.50%EV -6.55%E -2.26%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.77%EV -4.82%E -2.03%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -6.10%E -1.80%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-22 07:54
Coral🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.50%EV -6.55%E -2.26%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.77%EV -4.82%E -2.03%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -6.10%E -1.80%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-22 07:54
Betclic (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.94%EV -6.55%E -2.26%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 40.81%EV -8.84%E -3.89%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.25%EV -6.10%E -1.80%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-22 07:00
1xBet🎯2.89I 34.60%NM 32.36%EV -6.88%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.46%EV -4.82%E -2.03%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.17%EV -8.31%E -2.50%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-22 14:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.31%EV -7.20%E -2.50%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.36%EV -12.45%E -5.71%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -8.87%E -2.69%K -3.85%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-22 15:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.31%EV -7.20%E -2.50%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.36%EV -12.45%E -5.71%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -8.87%E -2.69%K -3.85%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-22 15:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.31%EV -7.20%E -2.50%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.36%EV -12.45%E -5.71%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -8.87%E -2.69%K -3.85%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-22 15:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.31%EV -7.20%E -2.50%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.36%EV -12.45%E -5.71%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -8.87%E -2.69%K -3.85%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-22 15:20
Unibet (UK)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.23%EV -8.16%E -2.86%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.94%EV -7.63%E -3.32%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -8.87%E -2.69%K -3.85%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-22 07:00
Unibet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.65%EV -8.16%E -2.86%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.01%EV -11.65%E -5.29%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -8.87%E -2.69%K -3.85%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-22 15:19
Grosvenor🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.65%EV -8.16%E -2.86%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.01%EV -11.65%E -5.29%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -8.87%E -2.69%K -3.85%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-22 15:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.67%EV -9.78%E -3.49%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 41.05%EV -13.25%E -6.14%K -11.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.28%EV -10.25%E -3.15%K -4.55%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-22 15:19
LiveScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.29%EV -9.78%E -3.49%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 41.33%EV -14.86%E -7.01%K -13.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.38%EV -11.63%E -3.63%K -5.28%G +0.000%14.1%2026-08-19 17:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.29%EV -9.78%E -3.49%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 41.33%EV -14.86%E -7.01%K -13.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.38%EV -11.63%E -3.63%K -5.28%G +0.000%14.1%2026-08-19 17:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -11.39%E -4.14%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -3.62%E -1.51%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -3.34%E -0.955%K -1.34%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-22 15:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.99%EV -11.39%E -4.14%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.32%EV -9.64%E -4.28%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -6.10%E -1.80%K -2.54%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-22 07:00
William Hill🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.13%EV -11.39%E -4.14%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.42%EV -7.63%E -3.32%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -17.15%E -5.72%K -8.58%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-22 12:00
888sport🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.13%EV -11.39%E -4.14%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.42%EV -7.63%E -3.32%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -17.15%E -5.72%K -8.58%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-22 12:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.13%EV -11.39%E -4.14%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.42%EV -7.63%E -3.32%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -17.15%E -5.72%K -8.58%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-22 11:59
888sport (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.13%EV -11.39%E -4.14%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.42%EV -7.63%E -3.32%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -17.15%E -5.72%K -8.58%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-22 11:59
SportsBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.98%EV -13.00%E -4.81%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.04%EV -5.62%E -2.39%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -6.10%E -1.80%K -2.54%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-22 15:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -13.00%E -4.81%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.30%EV -11.65%E -5.29%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -8.87%E -2.69%K -3.85%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-22 07:00
PMU (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 31.56%EV -13.00%E -4.81%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 40.96%EV -16.47%E -7.92%K -15.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.48%EV -14.39%E -4.64%K -6.85%G +0.000%17.4%2026-08-22 15:19
Sky Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.87%EV -15.25%E -5.80%K -9.36%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.73%EV -7.63%E -3.32%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.41%EV -10.25%E -3.15%K -4.55%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-22 15:00
betfred_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.83%EV -15.58%E -5.94%K -9.61%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.34%EV -4.42%E -1.86%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -6.10%E -1.80%K -2.54%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-22 14:59
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.09%EV -15.58%E -5.94%K -9.61%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.84%EV -7.63%E -3.32%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.07%EV -8.87%E -2.69%K -3.85%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-22 14:58
BoyleSports🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 32.94%EV -15.58%E -5.94%K -9.61%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.23%EV -11.65%E -5.29%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.84%EV -14.39%E -4.64%K -6.85%G +0.000%15.9%2026-08-22 06:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎3.12I 32.05%NM 32.03%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.98%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.99%0.1%2026-08-22 07:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.05I 32.79%NM 32.37%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.81%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.81%1.3%2026-08-22 15:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.05I 32.79%NM 32.16%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.20%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.63%1.9%2026-08-22 15:20
Smarkets◎3.05I 32.79%NM 31.93%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.24%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.83%2.7%2026-08-22 15:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.96I 33.78%NM 32.82%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.81%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.37%2.9%2026-08-22 15:20